IMPORTANT Hurricane Milton

Ft. Myers in the path once again. They are still rebuilding Ft Myers Beach from Ian and cleanup from Helene as they got extreme high tide/storm surge and the whole island was under water again.

 

Always heard that a hurricane coming in just south of Tampa Bay was the worst case scenario for this area, because it pushed the wall of water into the bay and the hurricane rotation holds it there, and there are a ton of low-lying communities all around the bay. Thankfully, these projections are not very accurate this far out ...

 

Just north would be the killer. Either way, I feel like this is exactly what my home needs right now.

 

8 am Wed on the GFS global model has it as a weak Cat 3 going East into Tampa

GFS Model

 

Yeah, people on the coast in north Pinellas and Pasco just now getting their power turned on or getting notice that FEMA that their houses are condemned, and they can't return at all, and they were like 150 miles from land fall... A direct hit is going to be very bad. Hope it stays at 2 or less.

 

Minor point of clarification... The GFS is a global weather model, not a specific hurricane model.

 

no worries I'll correct it. I have several windows of models open bouncing back and forth.

 

I have personally been lucky this season but so ready for winter.

 

10 AM FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 22.1N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 22.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 22.8N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 23.4N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W 95 KT 110 MPH (372 miles WSW of Venice, FL)
96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH (58 miles W of Venice, FL)
120H 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH ( 175 miles NE of Cape Carnaveral)

 

Would be devastating as a 3…. that area hasn’t taken a direct hit since 1921, is densely populated, and probably has millions of homes built before the 1980s when we started getting serious about building codes and elevating new houses above the flood plane. Even as a 3, that might be the most expensive hurricane ever.

 

It doesn't get any worse than this in the Tampa Bay area and especially if it reaches major hurricane status which is winds of 110+ MPH sustained.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN (noaa.gov)

Coming from west to east like this rarely happens. Anybody in the area know when this last happened?

 

which means it’ll be a CAT 4.

 

I agree, I live on South Tampa. I will be keeping my eye on this one.

 

It does seem like clockwork at this point.

 

HWRF Model
940 MB cat 4 at 2 am Oct 10th

 

I have a buddy he has a house on Tampa bay. He got 2 feet of water and his cars were flooded in the garage. He can afford another hurricane but he has set up a go fund me page. I made a donation to the Red Cross in his name. If he doesn’t head out this time he is a fool.

 

I cant remember a major one that hit and was lower than predicted. Seems like just before landfall they all have gained strength and went to the next Cat level.