Correct me if I am wrong, but you'd think most new registrants are younger folks, right? I suppose it could be middle-aged and older folks switching party affiliation. Either way, it's more difficult to swim against the tide if you're Team Kamala. Breaking down the numbers even further: Analyzing the delta between nationwide popular vote margin and PA final vote margins in 2020 and 2016, it's pretty interesting indeed. In 2020, Biden received 4.5% greater in the popular vote nationwide. His narrow win in PA illustrates the problem in PA for Team Kamala: Biden won PA by 1.2% (a 3.3% delta) ... now looking at 2016.. Hillary wins the nationwide popular vote by 2.1%; Trump wins PA by 1.2% (a 3.3% delta) One would have to assume that 3.3% delta would at least hold in 2024 with the increase in GOP registrants versus Dem registrants in PA. Meaning.. Kamala would have to win the nationwide popular vote by 3.3% (at least) to win PA. Based on current polling data up through today, if I had to wager, I would wager Kamala wins the nationwide popular by <1%, which translates to a decent size win for Trump in PA if that delta holds.
I don't know the demographics, but I do agree about the popular vote. If Kamrade Kamala doesn't knock the popular vote out of the park, she doesn't have a chance in Pennsylvania and several other swing states too. Polling has been screwed up by the democratic socialist communist party coup and DNC, but I'm going to start looking again this week at new polls. I have no idea if it's true or not, but it has been rumored that the Harris Campaign has asked pollsters to revise the way they do their polling, something about doing increased online polling, which supposedly favors Kamrade Kamala. There may be some legs to the rumor as I received a text yesterday announcing that I have been selected to participate in an online presidential poll. I immediately put it in file 13 where it belongs.
Once again you're comparing 2024 with 2020 and 2016. The 2008 presidential election is probably a more accurate analogy. I would also add that Democratic candidates even in elections that they lost outperformed the polls in virtually every election from 2022 to the present. Using Pennsylvania again, Shapiro and Fetterman both outperformed the polls and in Michigan Whitmer outperformed the polls by a huge margin. In the 2024 special election to replace George Santos in the NY 3rd District Tom Suozzi also outperformed the polls by a large margin. While NY is a hard blue state that particular district is a swing district. Santos as a Republican won the district by a nine percentage point margin in 2022. In the 2024 special election Souzzi beat the Republican by a nine percentage point margin and flipped the script on border security by emphasizing that Trump and the Republicans blocked the most consequential border security legislation in decades.
Update on Pennsylvania Voter Registrations: Voter Registrations by Party through September 23, 2024: Democrats 3,933,706 Republicans 3,595,310 Difference 338,396 Republican Favored One-Week Difference 4,675 10/21 Projected Difference 319,610 Momentum with 4 weeks until registrations close on 10/21 for the 2024 election on November 5 continues on the side of the republicans. Luzerne County has more registered republicans than democrats for the first time since 1970! H I S T O R Y! Luzerne County, PA: Majority of Registered Voters Are Now Republicans (breitbart.com) Luzerne County, PA: Majority of Registered Voters Are Republicans for First Time Since 1970 Biden lost Luzerne County to Trump by 14.37%: Election Night Reporting (clarityelections.com) Republicans account for 87,415 of the county’s 203,321 registered voters. Democrats account for 87,332 registered voters, which means the Republicans lead by 83 voter registrations in the county. There are 22,414 unaffiliated voters and 6,160 voters registered with third parties, according to the latest totals.
Because of the slave states compromise known as the electoral college, the Democratic candidate will probably never win the presidency again unless they win the popular vote by >3%. Current legitimate polling has Harris up between 4-6% nationally. That brings states like NC and FL into play and there is no route to 270 for Trump without both.
Young people especially POC women are registering nationwide mostly as NPA. They are not registering to vote for Trump.
ETGator1 couldn't be more correct. The Cubans, Venezuelans and Columbians may turn Dade County red this year. Polls are just one indicator of who will win. Quite possibly the least reliable indicator
How many voters are Non-Party? This is not just a "D" v. "R" calculation. And, as a registered Republican in Florida, there's no way I would ever vote for Tangerine Man.
The democrats have won their last statewide election. The Free State of Florida is never going back. If they don't like it, move to where they can like it, any blue state losing population would be glad to have them. We don't need or want the woketard loony left in Florida.
Putting Arizona on the list. This is an interesting story plus Arizona registration stats: Trump Gets Edge in Key Arizona County as Democrats Lose 15% of Their Voters (msn.com) Former President Donald Trump has an edge in Arizona's 2024 election, as Democrats in Maricopa County have seen a sharp 15 percent decline in voter registration since the 2020 election. The drop in Democratic voters, combined with steady Republican gains, has given Trump and the GOP a 21 percent advantage in the state's most populous and politically influential county. This increase in the GOP's margin could be pivotal in determining the outcome of Arizona, a key battleground state that helped decide the 2020 election. A 15 percent drop in Maricopa County voter registration is a setback for the Democratic party, which counted on the county to help Biden win in 2020. Back then, Maricopa had 814,000 registered Democrats compared to 915,000 Republicans, giving Republicans an 11 percent lead. By July 2024, registered Democrats fell to 692,000 and Republicans dropped to 851,000. Voter Registration Statistics | Arizona Secretary of State (azsos.gov) July 2024 (Primary Election) Party Name Registered Voters Percent Republican 1,454,966 35.41% Democratic 1,195,696 29.10% Libertarian 30,934 0.75% No Labels 29,032 0.71% Green 3,344 0.08% Other 1,395,298 33.95% Total 4,109,270 -- Barring shenanigans again in Maricopa and Pima Counties, Trump is walking away with Arizona.
Interesting in Nevada. Both republicans and democrats have gone down a bit since the 2020 election. The big rise in registrations has been in the independent category. Keeping in mind that Clark County is just over half of the voting base in Nevada, Trump needs to schedule another trip to Las Vegas to remind those workers that it was Kamrade Kamala who cast the deciding vote that led to increased IRS hiring and a division that has attacked their tips earnings. Of course, Kamrade Kamala will say she now supports not taxing tips following Trump's lead, but they need to know it is Harris' job as president to raise taxes for spending and their tips will not be cut out or the IRS staffing handing the enforcement of raising taxes on tips is going nowhere under her leadership. Nevada shouldn't be close; Trump should be up big. Go get Nevada Trump, should be a layup.
With the exception of the election for governor in 2022 in which the incumbent Democrat was voted out of office almost entirely in response to the devastating impact of the Covid lockdowns, Democrats have won every statewide election in Nevada since 2016 and not only that they consistently outperformed the polls. Just a reminder: Trump-backed Adam Laxalt concedes in pivotal Nevada U.S. Senate race. The reason is fairly simple. The Culinary Workers Union is incredibly effective at turning out its members. In fact, under the contracts that they have negotiated with the hotel casinos union members are actually allowed paid time off to vote. Culinary Union Endorses Harris’ Proposal to End Tax on Tips, Weeks After Trump Proposed It Nevada unions rallying to amplify Harris’ campaign
Tied with dems better ground game. Rank and file breaking with the bosses. Go out there, expose Harris lies, and wrap up Nevada.
Update on Pennsylvania Voter Registrations: currentvotestats.xls (live.com) Voter Registrations by Party through September 30, 2024: Democrats 3,941,347 Republicans 3,608,032 Difference 333,315 Republican Favored One-Week Difference 5,081 10/21 Projected Difference 318,072 Momentum with 3 weeks until registrations close on 10/21 for the 2024 election on November 5 continues on the side of the republicans and continues to accelerate.
This is interesting as the Pennsylvania Department of State election interference has been stopped: Scott Presler Stops Election Interference Cold in Pennsylvania Ahead of Trump's Return to Butler – RedState Apparently, I'm not the only one recognizing the seismic shift to the republicans in Pennsylvania. With the second Trump rally in Butler coming up, you can be sure what was already surging in republican vote registrations will explode to the upside in this rally. I can't wait to see the numbers after the rally. According to Presler, he uncovered an attempt by the Pennsylvania Department of State to begin maintenance of their registration system during the Trump rally. As Presler stated in an interview with Human Events Daily, the registration site announced that the registration website will be "undergoing maintenance" during Trump's big return in order to deaden the hype around his appearance and hopefully cause fewer registration sign-ups. As Presler noted, usually when maintenance is done, it's in the "wee hours of the morning," however, this particular maintenance was scheduled between 6 pm and 12 am. The Trump rally that day was going to begin at 5 pm. "It was clear that the Pennsylvania Dept. of State was engaging in election interference, trying to stop all this national attention from translating into new voter registrations," Presler told Human Events. Presler sent this up the chain to GOP co-chair Lara Trump, who proceeded to blast this fact all over social media, eventually causing enough pressure to fall on the PA State Department for them to reschedule maintenance for the correct time. It's crazy that we have to be this observant, but this is the enemy Republicans are up against. They're a party whose unofficial motto is "by any means necessary."
After work hours is normal and this was almost certainly planned before Trump announced his rally. How do I know that? Because if they had any proof that this was only scheduled after Trump announced his rally they would have led with that in the article.
Party registration is almost certainly a lagging indicator. The majority of voters in Luzerne County were already predisposed to vote Republican as indicated by your own data from the 2020 election before they changed their registration. By the way your fondness for using a bold font is really annoying.
