None of that was my point. Setting aside the fact that .4 is a statistically meaningless number, I am saying whomever consolidates that group of undecideds and wafflers wins. That number is similar to the poll from fox the other day, it’s showing to be a meaningful data point. And these voters tend to break late, so watching those numbers (along with enthusiasm) it will give you an idea of who they will eventually break for, since change is what they almost always break towards. The cook poll today asked specifically on change questions, and it was an almost flat split, which is why the race is tied. If by chance it stayed even on that measure til Election Day on the better change candidate, assuming equal enthusiasm, the candidate who better consolidates their base before that will win, because the wafflers might flip or might not flip, but they might just stay home if they aren’t enthused about it. Which is why that number is critical - Basically two of the three scenarios with them are bad for their candidate. And right now both have more than enough of them to easily flip the election in one direction or the other.
Nah, polling numbers are gradually getting worse for Kamala in the battlegrounds as the undecideds whittle down and she still refuses to put herself out there. It'll be a close result and Kamala may even win the popular vote, but Trump is going to be your next POTUS. Additionally, there is a chance for an October surprise to hit Kamala's numbers noticeably. Note that her campaign is still quite young and for example, if it turns out Walz lied about his son seeing that shooting, the media won't let that one go. There's really not much we don't already know about Donald Trump, so his downside risk in an October surprise is quite low comparatively speaking.
I don't know why this is different than in post #1290, but Quinnipiac has it a little different in Georgia and North Carolina in this release: 10/1/24 - Swing State Poll 2024: Georgia, North Carolina: Trump Ahead In GA, On Upside Of Tight Race In NC, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; NC Governor Race: More Voters Say Robinson Should Stay In Race | Quinnipiac University Poll Georgia: Trump +6% at 50% to 44% North Carolina +2% at 49% to 47% Poll Questions Question1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Jill Stein the Green Party candidate, Chase Oliver the Libertarian Party candidate, - (GA) Cornel West running as an independent candidate, and Claudia De la Cruz running as an independent candidate / (NC) Cornel West the Justice For All Party candidate, and Randall Terry the Constitution Party candidate, - for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS AND IN NC ALREADY VOTED) - LIKELY VOTERS --------GA-----NC Harris 44%----47% Trump 50%----49% Stein - 1 Oliver 1 - West 1 1 De la Cruz(GA) 1 na Terry(NC) na - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 1 REFUSED 2 1
I think Rich Baris (Big Data Poll, @peoples_pundit) is the best pollster. In 2016 he had Hillary with a slight edge in Minnesota She won by 1.52% (I believe). My recollection is every other pollster had Hillary up by at least 5%. Minnesota is competitive this year but the margin of fraud will probably give the W to Kamala, but not necessarily. Fraud should be less in 2024 than 2020. The wild card for me is Democrat micro-targeting of voters with ads and their get out the vote efforts, like volunteers going door to door. Door to door doesn't work well for Pubs. Behavioral research has shown that Pubs respond to someone they know who calls them and persuades them to vote. In this area a company called "10X" is working hard to get out the vote in Michigan. This group or people copycatting them are setting up operations in other swing states They're behind the curve in this election but every effort helps. The huge (4%-7%) Democtat bias in many.polls is designed to suppress Repub fundraising and turnout as I have said. Rich Baris put the below chart together, evidently. These are the major pollsters and shows how they did in the 2020 presidential election. Note that Trafalgar is ranked near the top. Note the other pollsters in the top 5 or so. I can tell you that pro bettors refer to polls you see near the top and often laugh at polls near the middle and bottom. As election day grows closer the polls with a deliberate Dem bias often start posting polls with less of a Dem lean to maintain their credibility. Nate Silver wants to restore his credibility this year. To build drama he pretends the race is tighter than it is but he wants his final poll to be on the money. I think his final prediction will be for Trump to win.
First October surprise just hit. Though it's not a big surprise. The latest Jan 6 indictment from Jack Smith just dropped and it's unsealed. Team Trump has two weeks to respond. I think Vance won the debate last night by split decision, but Walz's best moment was asking Vance directly about the 2020 election results, and then claiming Harris/Walz is for the people, and Trump/Vance is for Trump. The sealed indictment, which admittedly I have not read yet, very likely has some juicy tidbits the Harris campaign can use to drive this point home. Could be enough to sway some voters to not vote for Trump. Much like the Hillary email story likely made enough of a difference in 2016.
Will this story impact the polls. Probably not at all Report: Doug Emhoff Paid $80k 'Hush Money'; Was Never Prosecuted
Think Trump has an excellent shot in Wisconsin. The Trafalgar Group Wisconsin poll released today: WI-Gen-Pres-Report-1001.pdf (thetrafalgargroup.org) Trump 47.1 Harris 46 Conducted 09/28/24 - 09/30/24 • 1079 Respondents • Likely General Election Voters • Response Rate: 3.60% • Margin of Error: 2.9% • Confidence: 95% • Response Distribution: 50% • Methodology: TheTrafalgarGroup.org/Polling-Methodology
Wisc. is nearly 42%-42% D to R. However the age is skewed such that 52% of Pubs are over 50 yr old where only 40% of Dems are. Not a truly staggering stat unless good old Trafalgar wants to show the felon winning by ANY kind of margin so they polled an unbelievable 71.7 % of their respondents from the 50+ age group. Now that's some good ole Pub home cookin'. LOL
Silver's poll averages has Harris +3.5% Nationally. That would equate to 90 to 98% chance of Harris winning the EC, per his older stats on the free part of his blog.
At this point I just enjoy Okee's and Fox's ability to take any poll result and twist it to say that Trump is going to win
