With 0 doubt Morning Consult.is one of the worst pollsters. Trafalgar (Robert Cahaly) is one of the best polls and I think 538 had them ranked extremely low per WarDamnGator (I believe). Nate Cohn/538 are jokes NBC and Morning Consult are the only 2 polls that predicted Democrats would get a majority of the votes in 2020. Rich Baris:
538 actually ranks Tafalgar at 279 with a rating of 0.7 where 3.0 is the highest rating. Pollster Ratings
It's no wonder there are befuddled people who cry fraud! when they gravitate toward sources that lie or mislead them and results don't match what they expect. 538 and Nate Silver aggregate polls. More data is more likely to give you the best forecast. Some polls are going to be accurate one year and another poll a different year. It's not complicated.
That's my point 538 is terrible and Nate Cohn is a fraud. In the betting community people trust Trafalgar.
This is how Trafalgar did in the 2022 Pennsylvania Senatorial Election. I previously posted it to illustrate how the Democratic candidates were outperforming the polls in PA.
Bovada is very shady. They stole a significant sum of money from me that I will probably never get back. There is no doubt in my mind Trump is ahead. People made up their minds a year ago At no point has Kamala been ahead imo
Trafalgar poll October, 2020 for Arizona. They got Trump's support with leans close, but missed Biden's final number by 3 points.
You're forgetting, if the result was different it was because of fraud. Same will go for this election.
Months ago Barnes and Baris predicted Nate Silver would go back and forth between Trump and Kamala as to who was ahead, just to give his public some drama. Because Nate has lost a lot of credibility his final prediction will be a Trump victory. He's known Trump will win for some time, because he watches the weekly Barnes and Baris podcast. In all likelihood, there is no Nate Silver "model."
Baris/Barnes is gonna tell a certain portion of the population what they want to hear no matter what. It feeds the cognitive dissonance. Pretending for a minute this poster is a real person who seems to be a degenerate gambler who lives in Vegas with exceptionally poor eyesight it’s pretty hilarious they are so susceptible to partisan bullshit. No wonder they owe money to Bovada.
From the article: The Republicans actually ended up with 221 seats enough for a majority but only by a 4 seat margin. The red wave turned out to be trickle.
