PCE August 2024

PCE for August 2024, Revisions of the 2nd quarter GDP, and reminder of -.1% in August 2024 unemployment rate:

Personal Income and Outlays, August 2024 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

PCE All 2.2%
PCE Core 2.7%

It's a mixed bag result. PCE All went down to 2.2% while the Feds preferred inflation gauge PCE Core went up to 2.7% from 2.6%.

Price indexes: Percent change from month one year ago
PCE 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.2
PCE, excluding food and energy 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7

Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Second Quarter 2024 and Annual Update | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

GDP was revised at 3.0% for the second quarter for its second and third revision after first being reported at 2.8%

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.6 percent (revised).

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 3.0 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to private inventory investment and federal government spending that were offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and exports (refer to "Updates to GDP"). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up.

August 2024 unemployment rate went down to 4.2% from 4.3%:

The Employment Situation - August 2024 (bls.gov)THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION — AUGUST 2024 USDL-24-1817 Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in construction and health care.

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION — AUGUST 2024 USDL-24-1817 Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in construction and health care.

The Employment Situation for September is scheduled to be released on Friday, October 4, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).

Janet "Inflation is Transitory" Yellen yesterday told the UK Finance Minister more rate cuts are on the way.

Yellen says economy on 'soft landing' path, Fed's policy rate will fall to neutral level | Reuters

"I always believed that there was a path to a soft landing, that it was possible to bring inflation down while maintaining a strong labor market, and to me, that's what the data suggests has happened," Yellen said.

She added that there was reason to believe that housing costs would also fall.

Yellen also said that U.S. deficit reduction was necessary to keep interest costs manageable over time, but added that the Biden administration believed it important to continue to invest in parts of the economy that would fuel future growth.

No, Janet Yellen believed inflation was transitory.

I'm still trying to figure out how lower mortgage rates and more buyers in a low inventory market is going to lead to lower housing prices.

The democrats have not learned their lesson on fiscal spending like a drunken sailor on Saturday night shore leave. Not to worry, they plan to tax the US people to death and beyond.

With the PCE, GDP, and unemployment numbers above combined with where the Feds are taking interest rates, probably around 3.5%, the US will soon be experiencing "transitory inflation" once again. Fed Chairman Powell knows this, yet he is going to play this silly losing game again for the democrats.

 

Why does Yellen care if housing comes down? We've had a soft landing without a recession and full employment according to her.

As you say removing housing puts inflation at zero, there has been no price reductions on all other goods and services. Those items aren't going up at this time, but they aren't going down either. We are saddled with permanent huge inflation rolled in since the start of the Biden/Harris administration; rate of inflation increase has gone down, but actual prices have not.

Powell and the Fed raised rates on Trump 7 times to fight inflation. PCE All and PCE Core never got above 2.3% and 2.0%:

Archive | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Current PCE All 2.2% and PCE Core 2.7% are high to be cutting into. PCE Core has been trending in the range of 2.6% to 2.8% for months. Apparently, the Fed has given up on its mandate to keep inflation down with a target of 2.0%. The CPI is higher.

I don't want to hear about Trump's rates compared to Biden/Harris' rates. Biden/Harris has earned their higher levels of interest rates in poor management of fiscal spending and the economy.

Yada, Yada, Yada about unemployment too.

Civilian unemployment rate (bls.gov)

For Trump's first 2 years, the unemployment rate ranged from 4.7% down to 4.0%. The unemployment rates in July and August 2024 are 4.3% and 4.2%.

The GDP is growing at 3.0%.

Where the hell is the recession that Trump never got and Biden isn't likely to get?

All we are going to get is a reignition of inflation. The dems are already planning on increasing taxes to cover their spending rather than cutting taxes and lower spending to fuel growth if they win the WH again.

A+ is more likely. Time will tell.

 

As far as I'm concerned, if we are going to deflate housing, leave rates alone and let them do their job of everything else too which was slowly happening. There were absolutely zero reasons to cut rates .50% or more rate cutting to come. It will become inflationary on top of what we have now. The Fed's actions now are unacceptable, political, and dangerous to people of moderate and low means.

 

Harris will let the Trump tax cuts expire and renege on exempting taxes on tips as it is too late to reverse course on that disaster.

 

Dang! Labor and domestic fresh food prices have already risen way too high so how can you be happy with Biden/Harris. Me thinks you speak with forked tongue Kemosabe.