Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Plus mail in voting. The question is how much do some of these “voters” hate Trump? Enough to walk down to their mailbox or enough to drive somewhere and stand in line?

 

Florida is red. You can stick a fork in it. Texas isn't a purple state either. It's nice to talk about by the left, but it's a pipe dream.

I would appreciate watching Kamrade Kamala come to Florida and test the waters. You go girl.

 

Two excellent polls today:

1. The Gallup Poll that I see none of you want to touch, likely know better.

2. Rasmussen has Trump at +2 nationally for a third week in a row:

Election 2024 - Rasmussen Reports®

Thursday, September 26, 2024

For the third consecutive week, former President Donald Trump holds a two-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the race for the White House.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Trump, while 46% would vote for Harris. Three percent (3%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,820 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on September 19 and 22-25, 2024 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

 

Rasmussen??? Next the poster will submit as valid a poll from before the debacle... oops. Major desperation campaign of misinformation.

 

Said before, Rasmussen is to credible polling what Fox News is to actual news.
538 drops Rasmussen Reports from its analysis

For years, Rasmussen’s results have been more favorable for Republican candidates and issues. During the Trump administration, though, the site’s public presence became more overtly partisan, with tracking polls sponsored by conservative authors and causes and a social media presence that embraced false claims that spread widely on the right. At times, Rasmussen’s polls actively promoted those debunked claims, including ones centered on voter fraud.​

 

While I still expect Trump to carry Florida the election is becoming close enough that his campaign will have to devote considerable resources to the state. During the next month I expect Trump to make multiple appearances in Florida probably many more than he did in 2020 and similarly the campaign is going to be devoting significant resources to its advertising budget to the every major media market in the state.

 

Harris just needs to camp out in PA.

 

Election 2024: Trump +3 in Georgia, Tied With Harris in Pennsylvania

This is a brutal poll for Trump in PA especially.

 

Betting markets just swung big from Harris to Rapey Trumpputin.

Went from -125/105 for Harris to -110/-110. Calling it a dead heat.

Boo.

 

Fox News Poll: Harris is ahead of Trump by 3 points in Georgia

 

USA Today / Suffolk: Trump +6 in Arizona.

Harris heads to southern border in Arizona — where she's losing ground

I continue to marvel at how Trump clinched the sun belt states Kamala was vying for with that debate performance. It's undeniable. Now the only question is what happens in Pennsylvania.

 

Notice any trend for PA? Although the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll is a single poll the poll was sample several days after the polls indicating a tie. I would also add that in 2022 Democratic candidates for senator and governor outperformed the polls by a significant margin, in fact the RCP average based on multiple polls indicated a victory by Mehmet Oz, the Trump-endorsed candidate who ended losing to John Fetterman by a margin of over four percent.

 

Latest Bloomberg poll has Harris winning in six swing states, including PA, NV, and AZ, where the poll has Harris +3. Most of the polls are within the MOE, as are most of the polls showing Trump ahead in these same states. What it really means is it's likely going to be very close. It may all come down to the small percentage of those still undecided.

 

2024 GE: Echelon Insights Crosstabs

2-WAY
Harris: 52% (+7)
Trump: 45%

Last poll (8/25) - Trump 49-48%

 

BUT NATE SILVER!!

@PpollingNumbers
4m
New Nate Silver Model - win probability

Harris 58%
Trump 42%

 

New Bloomberg/Morning Consult Polls

Nevada: Harris +7
Pennsylvania: Harris +5
Wisconsin: Harris +3
Michigan: Harris +3
Arizona: Harris +3
North Carolina: Harris +2
Georgia: Tied

 

Harris is making gains among Hispanic voters in AZ and GA. In Arizona, where Hispanics are 25% of the electorate, Harris is +34, and rising. Still a bunch of undecided Hispanics. On a related note, Harris is visiting the border town of Douglas, AZ today.

 

One of the worst polls is Morning Consult

 

CNN/SRS Polls:

North Carolina: Harris 48%-Trump 48%
Stein 53%-Robinson 36%
NE-2: Harris 53%-Trump 42%

Trying to take away NE-2's voting power a month before the election may have backfired on Republicans there.

 

538 has them ranked 107 out of the 292 they use. So top of the middle third. Not great, but not one of the worst either.