Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

First it's still relatively early and NC is well within the margin of error. Harris can also lose every one of those Sunbelt swing states and still end up with an EC majority majority.

As an explanation, the rating of "funny" was based on the reference to Kari Lake. Even if Trump carries AZ which is a real possibility, the election denying nutcake would still have little chance of carrying the state.

 

The 2024 Arizona polls look eerily similar to the 2020 polls at this time. Just replace Harris with Biden. Most polls had Trump between +3 and +5, but with enough undecideds to make the race a toss-up. Almost every undecided broke Biden's way, who carried the state by .5%.

The Senate race four years ago between McSally and Kelly also had very similar polls to the Lake vs Gallego race. Only Gallego has slightly larger margins. What happened is those POTUS undecideds were already in the Kelly camp four years ago, and decided not to split their vote. If the same thing happens with Gallego voters, Arizona will see a repeat of 2020, with Harris winning by a slim margin and Gallego winning more comfortably.

 

If Maricopa County doesn't allow republican precincts to run out of ballots and machines to break down combined with a democrat judge refusing to keep the polls open for republicans like democrats when such things happen, Kari Lake will have a good shot. She would have beaten Hobbs except for election day shenanigans. Regardless of the polling, I think Kari Lake is going to pull it out. Trump probably needs to go back to Arizona one more time and go to Nevada next door while he is out west.

Insofar as NC is concerned, Trump is going to win the state. The goofy democrat governor just came out supporting abortion with zero restrictions. He's stating Kamrade Kamala's position for her quite well. That won't play well with the NC electorate. I expect NC to widen in Trump's favor.

 

You fail to account for Trump out with a change election and it was still close. The opposite is true this time. Harris is the incumbent.

You also know about the shenanigans in Maricopa County that affected the election. If you don't, you aren't even keeping up in your own state. My thought is there will be a lot more watchers and attorneys this year. The attorneys to fight the shenanigans. It won't be as easy to cheat this time. Maricopa County loves to cheat even openly. The same is true with Houston, Texas, but Texas is so red it doesn't matter as much.

 

Poster needs to provide all his proof of these voter frauds to the Ninja team.... oh wait that was already examined and after several recounts..... nothing was found. Please give us your NEW evidence of Az voter fraud that hasn't been shown to be completely false. Otherwise it's just more Trumpian voter fraud debunked claims.

 

Vote machine glitch roils Arizona's Maricopa County and fuels false statements (nbcnews.com)

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/1...lots/arizona-voting-machine-problems-maricopa

Voting machine problems in Arizona seized on by Trump, election deniers | Reuters

In Arizona, voting machine glitch gives way to election integrity concerns | Fox News

From Pennsylvania showing polls were kept open with similar problems:

Pennsylvania judge orders county to keep polls open until 10 pm after running out of ballot machine paper | Fox News

 

You realize that your first link disputes your points, right? They didn't run out of ballots and there is no evidence that anybody tried to vote and was unable to do so. According to your own link.

 

Maricopa County (Phoenix) didn't run out of ballots. Pinal County (Casa Grande) did. And that was in 2022, not 2020. It was a printer error. Ballot sizes were on strange paper size, and the clerk hit "fit to print size" button instead of leaving it blank. The total number of disenfranchised persons was likely less than 50, as ballots did get to the the polling places long before 7:00 PM.

Trump has also been polling between 47% and 48% in Arizona with one or two few outlier polls. This is almost identical to what we saw in 2020. Here's an Oct Trafalgar poll from 2020 with Trump with 47.5, and a 2.3% lead. Trump ended up with 49% with Biden 49.5%. Kelly won the Senate with 51.2%. Most current polls have Gallego winning by around 6% with between 49% and 53% of the vote.

Again, this is setting up to be a repeat performance of 2020. Lots of undecided POTUS voters have already made up their mind to support Gallego for Senate. If Trump were to win Arizona in 2024, these voters are going to have to split their ticket in much larger numbers than they did four years ago. Is it possible? Of course.

 

Well probably not, as Americans aren’t allowed to bet in them.

Should Betting on Elections Be Legal?

 

That is because you have lamestream mediaitis which is similar to TDS.

 

Arizona cheated in 2022. Glad to see you can read. Tell about Maricopa and the judge refusing to extend polling hours.

 

Is that what you call the ability to read your links?

 

LOL! You would think that vile wretch Kari Lake is great. She has zero shot at winning Arizona, just like almost every Trump backed nominee (see 2022). People are over his hateful rhetoric and sorry excuses for politicians that he backs. Buckle up, it’s going to be a long November for Trumpers again.

 

Let’s hope.

 

Maricopa County had issues with tabulation machines in 2022. This effected early return counting, not vote totals. From this link:

“This court finds no evidence that voters were precluded from turning in ballots, although there was some confusion and some difficulties,” said Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Tim Ryan in a hearing in the suit shortly before polls closed Tuesday.

During the emergency hearing Tuesday evening, attorneys for the county argued that no one in Maricopa County was denied the right to vote. The county’s 223 polling centers were open during mandated polling hours from 6 a.m.-7 p.m. Anyone whose ballot couldn’t be read by the on-site tabulation machines was given options, including putting their voted ballot in a box to be tallied later or going to another polling place to vote.
​

In Arizona, you can go to any open polling place in your county to vote. You do not have to go to your assigned precinct. The plaintiffs also failed to provide a single person who said he/she could not vote. NOT ONE! ZERO! NADA! Which is why the judge ruled against the claim and didn't keep polls open.

 

You’re wasting your time, Cat. MAGA thinks if Trump, or any Trump backed nominee doesn’t win, they cheated and it’s fraudulent. They can’t wrap their heads around the fact that the majority of the country can’t stand him and rejects his movement and those involved with it.

 

They think the elections are being stolen but they're also in here pushing poll results, like they matter if the elections are being stolen anyway. They can't make up their mind.

 

Poster's own link to Fox stated no voter fraud but several machine ink issues that were addressed. Perhaps poster believes in a conspiracy wherein ink is Democratic and can discern it's own the voter's choice. Reality becomes tenuous for desperate Pubs these days. LOL

 

For some reason, your optimism is giving me more anxiety than my pessimism.

 

I just use common sense. This isn’t 2016, when Trump was viewed as the populist candidate going up against the establishment candidate in Hillary who ran a very weak campaign, nor is it 2020 when he was the incumbent. This is 2024, and we have so much more to go on with him this time compared to the past, not to mention Covid killing off many Trump supporters versus a record number of young people being registered to vote this time. It just seems like a no brainer decision in the grand scheme of things - Trump is going to have his cult members vote for him always, but they’re in the minority and he’s done nothing to win over independents and has also managed to alienate and motivate the entire Haitian community to get out and vote. Good luck to Trump, he’s going to need a lot of it to win.