Trying to read the tea leaves in Arizona, and current 538 polls have Trump .5%. But it's 47.5% to 47%, leaving 5.5% undecided. This might be shaping up to be a repeat of 2020. Trump ended up with 49%, and Biden with 49.4%, with 1.6% voting third party. Assuming a similar number of double haters are among the 5.5%, and third party will win 1.5% of the undecided, that leaves 4% left for Trump or Harris to woo. If this holds true, Trump will have to do better than the 49% he did in 2020 to win Arizona. Looking at the other big state race, and currently that's Gallego with 48% and Lake with 42%. If true, then 5.5% of the voters are backing Trump, but not backing Lake, who is the female version of Trump? If the 10% break 6.8% for Lake and 3.2% for Gallego, we'll have a repeat of 2020 again here too, with Kelly winning with 51.2% of the vote. Hard to see Gallego losing right now, as he needs only 20.1% of the undecideds to break his way. And Trump only .5% with still a significant undecided population at 5%? It's still a toss-up.
Benny Johnson is a douche canoe. Why do you Trumpers enjoy being lied to? We try to tell you ahead of time but you stay in your right wing echo chamber and then when he loses you can’t fathom it because you only listen to sources that tell you the opposite time and time again.
Can’t wait for all the Gravy Seals who are actively threatening civil war to sit on their hands and do absolutely nothing when Trump loses bigly in November. All talk.
While I don't think that Florida will flip blue because it's become so close that Trump and the Trump campaign will have to devote time and resources to Florida that could have been spent in other states.
This comes immediately to mind. 538 drops Rasmussen Reports from its analysis For years, Rasmussen’s results have been more favorable for Republican candidates and issues. During the Trump administration, though, the site’s public presence became more overtly partisan, with tracking polls sponsored by conservative authors and causes and a social media presence that embraced false claims that spread widely on the right. At times, Rasmussen’s polls actively promoted those debunked claims, including ones centered on voter fraud. Last March, for example, Rasmussen released data purporting to show that Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake (R) had won her gubernatorial election in November 2022. The route it took to get to that determination was circuitous and, to put it mildly, atypical. On behalf of the group College Republicans United, Rasmussen asked Arizona voters who they voted for in Lake’s race and, after weighting the results to exit polls — which is unusual — declared that, contrary to the certified tally, Kari Lake had won her race by eight points.
Rasmussen Poll out today has Trump up 2 nationally. If independent and accurate is what you want in polling, Rasmussen is the poll of best choice: Election 2024: Trump Still Leads Harris - Rasmussen Reports® The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 49% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Trump, while 47% would vote for Harris. Two percent (2%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) The survey of 1,855 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on September 12 and 15-18, 2024 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. Enjoy this Rasmussen video available on YouTube: SHE'S LOSING! The Polls Aren't Fake Enough and It's Trump +2 - YouTube Sep 19, 2024 Less than two months to go and, after 10 years of Donald Trump, it looks like he is getting a solid 49% of the vote. MSM pollsters are giving it all they got, but it looks like not even interference by the Federal Reserve is enough to budge the 2024 matchup polling! Now posting on Twitter at: / mark_r_mitchell Kamrade Kamala needs an act of God to win. Rasmussen's Mark Mitchell's take on lamestream fake polls and their hypocrisy. The video tells you how to drill down to expose the fake polls.
Rasmussen had Trump +3 in Arizona late Oct. They only missed by 3.4%. And that was one of their more accurate calls in swing states if I recall. It was so bad, 538 dropped them.
Of course not. Rasmussen is accurate and independent. Hells bells man, Nate Silver doesn't even agree with 538. (shaking head) At 538, garbage in is garbage out, just a bunch of fake polls making fake news.
Silver posted this morning that his model flipped back to Harris after several days of strong post debate polling (and id assume his convention bounce remover has completely worn off by now, although he doesn’t mention that on his free site). Anyway, I just thought I’d beat okee to this announcement, since I’m sure he was going to post it real soon….
I would actually love to see Silvers tracking chart, but it’s on his paid site … the right wingers were stealing it and posting it on Twitter when Trump was ahead, but I’m sure that will stop now. Trump must have crashed like a rock post debate to go from a +25% chance of winning, to losing, in like 3 days.
Ask President Romney about the accuracy of Rasmussen. Rasmussen is to polling what Fox News is to news. They're both unreliable highly partisan outlets.
