Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Arizona has been a deep red state for years. Think Barry Goldwater. Before Biden won in 2020 in Arizona, the only D that has won a POTUS election since Eisenhower was Clinton in 1996. And before Sinema was, Arizona hadn't had a D Senator since 1992 with DeConcinni.

But demographics in Arizona has changed. More people from CA have moved to Phoenix and Tucson because of housing prices and like Austin, Tx, availability of college educated work forces. Within two hours of Phoenix you have Northern Arizona U, ASU, Grand Canyon U, and U of Arizona. The younger people of Arizona also tend to be more liberal, and more and more minorities are getting involved and voting. The Navajo Nation had almost 10k votes in 2020, almost all for Biden, which is about 2X more than average, mostly because COVID hit them hard, and Trump ignored their pleas for help.

The good 'ol boy Goldwater network in Arizona is aging out, and Phoenix metro, which has about 5/7 of the state's population, isn't dark red anymore. Still a lot of red pockets including W. Phoenix with a large retiree population (Sun City) and Mesa/Gilbert, which the largest LDS population outside of the state of Utah, but it's much more mixed. Tucson/Nogales has always been dark blue, and that's about 1/7 of the population. The rest is spread out among the state, with most being dark red like Yuma, Lake Havasu, Show Low, with blue exceptions of Flagstaff and the Reservations.

Something is also not sitting well with me with all the current polling. Currently, (D) Ruben Gallegos is leading (R) Kari Lake by between 4 and 8 points for Senate. Yet, some of these same polls have Trump +2 over Harris? That's a large, at minimum, 6 point swing, and represents a very large split ticket voter base that in my opinion, isn't likely to happen. Four years ago, Biden won by +.5, and (D) Kelly won a Senate vote by 2.3%. That's only a 1.8% split ticket vote four years ago. Difficult to believe that Lake, who is a female version of Trump, is that more unlikable that Gallegos is polling +6 on average, but Trump himself is polling +2.

 

This race is over, Harris is winning in a landslide as I’ve said she would from the beginning. Bring on the optimistic upvotes, but the gap just keeps widening and widening each day.

 

Dactile, the open-source model, which has been a bit conservative compared to 538, but is also giving Harris it's highest advantage yet, jumping from 58% to 60% today.

 

I wish I was at your level of enthusiasm but I'm not quite there yet. Ask me again in 30 days

 

Basica

My shorter answer is that people from Ohio retire in Arizona and you can take the old folks out of Ohio but you can’t take the Ohio out of old folks.

 

538 now 64-36

Trump is gonna start getting melty soon.

 

Hope you’re right. Why do I feel like it is way closer than it should be? I mean the republican candidate is shouting about cats and dogs, launching sketchy crypto deals, shitting on TV in debates… it’s just so disappointing.

 

It’s really just inflation. Dems got caught holding the bag when it hit. The fed cutting rates by a half point today is massive. A clear indicator from a nonpartisan source that inflation is under control now. Timing couldn’t be any better.

 

64% to 36% changes now on 538 ... what a day. That high quality post debate polling in finally coming in.

Oops, I see BigCypress beat me to this.

 

Harris is leading Trump, and it may be a landslide says top data scientist

Fascinating article about betting sites. Looking good for our girl.

 

It’s happening. Trump and Vance continue to alienate a large portion of the voter base (women) and now also the Haitian community, of which there are many who will be voting this upcoming cycle. 2020 and Covid killed off a large chunk of potential Boomer Trump voters and now 4 years later, there are more eligible young voters than ever before, who almost certainly the majority will be voting Democrat. Then you throw in things like the Taylor Swift endorsement, the fact that Trump continues to go on unhinged rants on Twitter daily, and the fact that he and his running mates’ policies are wildly unpopular and you have the makings of a landslide. I’m telling you, it won’t be remotely close.

 

The NY Times/Sienna College poll has Harris over Trump by 4% in Pennsylvania. That poll is rated number one by 538 and interestingly the same poll picked Fetterman over Oz by a 5% margin in the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate election and Fetterman ended up beating Oz by five percent.
Harris Ahead in Pennsylvania and Tied Nationally? Unpacking an Unexpected Result.

 

Tons of new polling data coming in this morning. Mostly good for Trump. Especially in the battlegrounds.

Latest Polls 2024 | RealClearPolling

 

And they have the popular vote tied. Hard to get a read on this election. It’s going to come down to turnout and ground game.

 

Really?

 

He doesn’t actually believe what he posts.

 

These polls are terrible for Kamala Harris, coming out of what was supposed to have been an epic fail of a debate for Donald Trump. She is either trailing slightly or teetering on the brink in the 3 Blue Wall states. I don’t see a path for her. She’s not talented enough to overcome these numbers and remember Hillary’s numbers were way better, along with Biden’s.

National polls released this morning:
NY Times / Siena: Harris 47, Trump 47 (tie)
FOX News: Harris 50, Trump 48 (Harris +2)

These are both post-debate and indicative of a Trump win due to the electoral college.

Wisconsin polls released this morning:
The Hill/Emerson: Harris 48, Trump 49 (Trump +1)
Marist: Harris 50, Trump 49 (Harris +1)

Nightmare scenario for Harris in Wisconsin. Remember, Trump outperformed the aggregate of polling in Wisconsin by +6 points in 2020.

Georgia:
The Hill/Emerson: Harris 47, Trump 50 (Trump +3)

Yet another poll giving Trump a +3 lead in Georgia.

Pennsylvania:
WaPo: Harris 48, Trump 48 (tie)
The Hill/Emerson: Harris 47, Trump 48 (Trump +1)
Marist: Harris 49, Trump 49 (tie)

 

@okeechobee Is here to provide comedic relief

 

Example of a good poll gone wrong:

Toplines: September 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters Nationwide - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Either do a national poll or do a state poll, don't mix the two in the same poll.

Head to Head Nationally:

Trump 47
Harris 46

Full Ballot Nationally:

Trump 46
Harris 45

The only problem presuming I'm reading this correctly is they used 1082 Pennsylvania voters of which 408 came from democrat stronghold Philadelphia. The total polled is 2437.

This is the first time I've seen the NY Times/Siena College poll do this. If you look at Pennsylvania where just the Pennsylvania poll shows Harris leads Trump by 4, using a heavier number of 408 from Philadelphia skews the poll the Harris. Having the skewed Pennsylvania included into the national poll skews that number for Harris too. In other words, the Pennsylvania poll is a bunch of crapola and Trump actually leads the national vote by more than 1. This isn't bad news for Kamrade Kamala, it is devastating news.

My advice is to look closely at polls you bring in that are all of a sudden conducting their poll differently like the NY Times/Siena College Poll has done.