Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

538 bumped Harris up again, to a 24% better odds than Trump. Must have got even more good polling late today.

 

Another awful post-debate poll for Kamala out of Georgia. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Trump +3

AJC poll: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump locked in a tight race in Georgia

My theory continues to verify. Trump's debate performance won him votes in key swing states and slightly damaged him in the nationwide overall. It looks to me that Kamala's small bump in national polling post-debate is confined to states she was already going to win. The polling numbers out of Georgia and Arizona have taken a marked turn in favor of Trump in the past week.

 

Just saw 538’s latest aggregate. 15 out of 15 post-debate polls had Harris ahead to give her a 3% lead, up from 2.7%.

 

I hadn't seen this. If true, that's not good for Harris at all. I figured her post-debate bump was going to be more than 0.3% If that's all it is, Trump is in fantastic shape. Again, I remind you Harris will need to win the popular by at least 3.0% to have a shot of winning the electoral college. And then you factor in that Trump has outperformed the polling aggregates in both elections by 2 to 3 percentage points each time. Thanks for sharing this, I hadn't seen it. A 0.3% bump in national polling does essentially nothing for Kamala and bumps tend to fade as well. Early voting doesn't start in 90% of states until mid to late October.

 

Interesting from Gallup...

 

yeah… Harris +6 is great. Would be a Harris landslide, Silver says a +6 would equate to 346 to 192 in the EC.

 

Gallup was once the gold standard. It hasn't been so for decades. Remember 2012? Ask President Romney about the accuracy of Gallup's prediction.
Gallup Explains How It Messed Up 2012 Presidential Polling

 

Harris +6 with a 3% MOR equates to a Harris win. It would mean, at worst, Harris is +3 nationally, well above the needed +2 to win the both the popular vote and Electoral College. Can't remember which pundit said it, but I think we're possibly seeing the Trump ceiling effect.

With some Trump v Biden polls, Trump got closer to 50%. But ever since Harris entered, the most Trump has garnered is closer to 47%. And with a younger Harris in the race, 47% might be Trump's ceiling. Undecideds have had 8 years to warm up to Trump, and if they haven't yet, it is unlikely they will be doing so in the near future.

Especially with Trump only pandering to his base and not reaching out to undecided voters. I can't imagine Trump cozying up to Lara Loomer is winning over too many people, nor was his debate performance. A small percentage, maybe, who were already heavy Trump leans, but not enough to get him over the 47% mark.

 

Trump-Harris Swing State Polls: Here Are The Key 2024 Election Battlegrounds

Pennsylvania: Harris leads by six points, 51% to 45%, in a Quinnipiac poll of likely voters (margin of error 2.7), after a CBS/YouGov poll released earlier this month showed them tied in the state—Trump led President Joe Biden 50%-49% in an April CBS poll, and was up four points over Harris in a July Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey.


Michigan: Harris is up 50% to Trump’s 45%, according to the Quinnipiac poll; CBS/YouGov found she had a one-point lead, 50%-49%, she led by five points in a late August CNN/SSRS poll and 11 points in the July Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey.


Wisconsin: Harris leads 48% to 47%, according to Quinnipiac, after leading by two points, 51%-49%, in the CBS/YouGov poll, a shift from her 50%-44% edge according to CNN and SSRS, and on par with the two-point advantage she held here in July’s Bloomberg poll.


Arizona: Trump leads Harris by five points, 49% to 44%, according to a survey of likely voters by CNN/SSRS from Aug. 23 to 29, though 14% of Arizona voters said they might change their minds before November—Trump trailed Harris by two points, 49% to 47%, here in the Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey of registered voters taken just after President Joe Biden’s exit from the race.

Georgia: Harris is up by one point here, 48% to 47%, according to CNN/SSRS, within the 4.7-point margin of error, while 11% of likely voters surveyed suggested they could change their minds (she and Trump were tied here in July with 47% support each in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll).

Nevada: Another state with no clear leader, Harris leads by one point, 48% to 47%, and 13% of respondents told CNN/SSRS they’re not firmly committed to the candidates they prefer now, a slight decline from Harris’ two-point lead here in the July survey.

 

That pennsylvannia poll is huge. Quinnipiac is a top rated pollster, too…

 

absolutely massive. Six points too. Trump will be backtracking on the debate before long.

 

I doubt his people want him anywhere near a debate stage. Could you imagine if people were actually watching him say that Bagram was in Alaska, you cut prices of foods by making food produced in other countries more expensive, the biggest threat to manufacturing in Michigan is nuclear weapons, or rambling on forever about how he doesn't ramble, not to mention trying to re-litigate the Central Park 5 and claiming that Haitians are eating pets again? They will take their chances without another one rather than let the "normies" see that weird stuff.

 

Probably. But desperate times call for desperate measures.

 

538 is now 63-37 Harris.

 

Nice, and interestingly, it doesn't look like they logged those Quinnipiac polls, yet, either. When I click on Penn, it's not there yet. Silver add it, though...

 

betting odds moving a bit towards Harris. She still has a bit of momentum.

 

New Quinnipiac poll out of PA today: Harris +5

Quinnipiac poll out October 5th, 2020: Biden +13

 

538 now has Florida closer to flipping blue than Wisconsin flipping red.

 

Speaking of the Quinnipiac poll.
Harris closes gap with Trump on the economy, new Pennsylvania poll shows
WASHINGTON —- Pennsylvania voters no longer prefer former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris on the economy in a poll that shows the Democratic presidential nominee all but erasing the deficit on which candidate can best handle the top issue for voters this fall. In a Quinnipiac University poll of likely Pennsylvania voters released Wednesday, Trump’s advantage over Ms. Harris was just 50% to 48%, a two-point advantage well within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

 

Maybe not the place to ask, but why is Arizona pretty much a Republican lock state? New Mexico and most West Coast states are blue. It's sandwiched between two blue states, California and New Mexico. What's different? @AzCatFan ?