Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Just a dagburn second. Are you sayin’ that Biden pulled out?

 

ohhh, if only Trump Sr had.

 

Trump makes that mistake all the time and you all just let it go… but I do it once…

 

Not good for Harris.. new InsiderAdvantage poll out of PA, taken over the weekend, so debate fully baked in. Trump +2. The same poll had Trump +1 in mid-August. RCP flips PA to Trump.. No toss-up states now give Trump 281 electoral votes:

Pennsylvania Survey: Trump Leads 50%-48; Casey Ahead of McCormick by Four Points – InsiderAdvantage




side note: look where Trump is now compared to both Clinton and Biden at this stage. Kamala has a major problem brewing in PA.

 

Trafalgar is very good. One of the best over the last few years and they are HQ'd in Atlanta. New Georgia poll has Trump +1.7% there. Post-debate numbers.

Interesting that Trafalgar sampled women over men at a 55-45 clip in this poll.

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GA-24-General-0916_Report.pdf

 

yeah, but you are more fun to tease.

 

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

Up to 61-39 for Harris now.

 

That’s her widest margin yet on 538.

 

Please provide us information on the latest posted Pennsylvania poll

 

And if this trend continues, then I agree with @chemgator that Trump will become more and more unhinged, desperate, and potentially dangerous.

 

Barnes and Baris expose the polling fraudsters. And is Arizona election integrity everything AxCatFan would have you believe?

 

Probably deserves a thread of it's own, the latest example of the unhinged Donald Trump

 

Trafalgar had Trump at +5 in Georgia in 2020. Uh oh your boy is in trouble.

 

Nate Silver knocks Trump down to having a 56.2% chance of winning. Some stronger national polls have manifested for Kamala. We're definitely still in that zone where Kamala wins the popular vote and Trump wins the EC if today was Election Day. It'll be interesting to see how the trifecta of key up-for-grabs battleground states (PA, GA, NC) trend over the next week. I left AZ out of that as Silver has AZ almost at a lock for Trump. The key for Trump is to maintain his grip on AZ, PA, GA and NC. He does that, obviously, he wins, no matter what the popular vote looks like.

 

I would add that the last RCP no toss up map in 2016 predicted a Clinton EC victory. The same map also predicted that Clinton would carry Florida.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...ctions_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

 

According to Nate:
Harris has a 2-in-3 chance of winning the popular vote, but there’s also almost a 25 percent chance that she wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College, meaning that the election is a toss-up.

For those who aren't as strong at math, if she has a 2/3 chance of winning the popular and a 1/4 chance she wins the popular but loses the EC, that means she has a 50% chance of winning the EC. Those numbers are lower than every other predictive source.

 

I wouldn't put Arizona in Trump's pocket just yet. Latest 538 is only Trump +.4, and that includes Trafalgar at Trump +2. 2020, Trafalgar had Arizona at Trump +2.4 and missed by almost 3 points, as the actual vote went Biden +.5.

Trafalgar also had miss in 2020 in Arizona's Senate race, as they had McSally beating Kelly. Kelly won by 2.4. In 2022, Trafalgar had Lake beating Hobbs for the Gubernatorial race. Lake won by .67%.

Current Arizona Senate race all has Gallego up by at least 4 points, with most at 6 points or higher. The one with Gallego scoring the lowest? You guessed it, Trafalgar. Frankly, one of the Trafalgar polls is wrong, as currently, this would be a 6% split ticket vote with (R) Trump at the top, but (D) Gallego for Senate. 2020 saw one of the larger split ticket vote across the nation in Arizona with Biden getting 1.8% less than Kelly, but a good chunk of those went 3rd party for POTUS. Still, a 6 point split swing would be more than 3X than last time. And while not impossible, I just don't see it happening.

 

So are you saying that for those of us who are strong in math, Harris does not have a 50-50 chance of winning the election?

 

What I'm saying is despite the rhetoric that a certain poster on here to Make it look like Nate has Trump up by a lot it's actually not true

 

Just a joke on my part. It’s like “if I don’t see you again, have a great weekend.” “And if you do see me again?”