The guy from tragalgar is not transparent about his methodology, but his base belief is that Republicans are always more motivated to vote, and therefore likely over samples republicans. In years where that is true (2016), they are one of the most accurate polls. In years where that is not true, they are one of the least accurate polls (2020, 2022). All in all, it probably works out to them being pretty average.
New Iowa Poll. Margin is 3.8%. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump leads Democrat Kamala Harris in the latest Iowa Poll 47% to 43%. Harris has dramatically improved on Joe Biden’s performance; Biden trailed Donald Trump by 18 percentage points in a June Iowa Poll. Eighty percent of Democrats who are likely voters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about their choice for president — compared with 74% of Republican likely voters. Iowa Poll: Trump's Iowa lead shrinks as Harris replaces Biden
Trafalgar had Trump +2.5 in Arizona over Biden in Oct 2020. Actual results was Biden +.4, barely within the margin of error. It's also unusual for states to split tickets between POTUS and Senator. Had happened only once the last few electing cycles with Maine, who voted for Biden and Collins for Senator. And currently, even Trafalgar has Gallego +4.
Disagree.. For exam0le, you say T4afalgar I remember my favorite pollster Rich Baris (Big Data Poll, @peoples_pundit) had Collins winning. Trump should win Ohio by 10% so I have Republican Bernie Moreno over Sherrod Brown as a double your money bet. (going by your logic). Barnes thinks it''s the safest bet followed by Trump beating Harris in the EC
Silver says the race back to a "toss up", so I assume his "convention bounce remover" is starting to wear off. Also, Okee will stop posting about him ...
The right-leaning RCP has flipped the map back to Harris, even with all those Trafalgar, Insider Advantage, and Rassmussen polls they use...
There is fraud in every election As Robert Barnes and pollster Rich Baris said for 2 months before the 2020 election, Democrats were using Covid to rig the election for lots of fraud Why not serve up the election like they do in some (or all?) Florida counties. Tour signature is matched when you sign in to your driver's license. The poll worker marks down that you have voted in a list of eligible voters so you can only vote once. You fill in a paper ballot with a pen and it is inserted into a machine that tabulated it as you leave the voting area. I believe if you are indigent you can get a state ID at no charge. Results of the election are known by 11pm (to my knowledge) If you want the election results to be trusted you should not oppose audits with signature verifications? You should not have long pauses in the vote counting that make people feel you're party is trying to figure out how many illegal ballots it needs to submit. And so on. In Muskegon, Michigan a suspicious woman was hanging around a drop.box and if I'm recalling correctly, she was stuffing ballots into the box and police arrested her. She got put of jail and fled to Detroit. Detroit would not extradite her. Bill Barr evidently covered this up according to a DOJwhistleblower.. Robert Barnes warned that Barr was a bad guy before Trump appointed him. I believe Barnes will be doing a lot of vetting for ztrump when he is elected. True or false (I don't know)--- From Muskegon: .
Like I said. If Trump loses he will blame voter fraud. If Trump wins we won't hear a peep about voter fraud although right-wingers are always getting arrested for it and we never hear a peep from conservatives about it
Pretty sure Trump has only one path to the white house and Biden Harris has several. I am not sure if that translates into a better chance to win but: If Trump loses PA he has no path to the white house. WI, MI, MN are too far gone in my humble opinion and Trump can win NC, GA, AZ, and NV and still lose. If Trump wins PA Biden has a few paths 1. NC and NV 2. NC and AZ 3. GA and NV 4. GA and AZ 5. GA and NC And crazily.. if Alaska gets any closer... its gone from +12 Trump to +5... there is a chance they decide the election with either NC or GA. Doubt that.
Nate Silver continues to give Trump a 60% chance of winning the Electoral College. I get it. If Trump sweeps the Sun Belt (NC, GA, AZ), she has to sweep the Rust Belt (WI, MI,PA). Silver currently giving Trump 2/3's odds of sweeping the Sun Belt. So he only needs to win one Rust Belt state and she's very vulnerable in all 3. Especially PA, but lately, MI is looking awful for her.
