Which is why a Missouri MAGA judge just blocked an abortion amendment. The MO Supreme Court has until Friday to reverse it
Listen to Barnes and Baris if you want to really be informed. Learn why 538 is increasingly seen as a joke by the betting markets
Immediate post debate odds: Online betting odds swung huge : from -125/105 in favor of Rapey Trumputin to -120/100 in favor of KH.
We’ll see if it holds, but she won the debate. “This is a major shift in favor of Harris, whose chances have risen by more than four and a half points in the past 24 hours, while Trump’s have plummeted by four.” Harris Surges In Election Betting Markets After Presidential Debate
The talk of 20% tariffs on one side and federal bans on price gouging on the other left me feeling rather queasy about the economy all around.
short term, I would agree with them. But with trump it will be in a few year out our country will start to pay for massive deficits for his tax cuts for the wealthy, removing regulations on Wall Street (see the 1929 Great Depression and 2008 Great Recession), and unfettered pollution. Not even getting into the divisions and hate he encourages. Longer term it will damage our country.
Personally I think, under Trump, if the 2025 plan is accurate, Medicare, perscription drugs and Social Securtiy benefits will be greatly reduced. Frankly I am also concerned about the right to vote under his administration, clearly many groups will be affected. Considering his Jan 6th attempt to cancel the 2020 election, it's a legit concern. And of course a national abortion ban will be implemented. The Supreme Court is in his pocket, If the House, Senate and Executive branch go GOP, be prepared for an entirely different United States. Ukraine? It's over for them. They will slowly wilt and die without US aid. The US may even withdraw from NATO.
Of course, MSM attempting to build up Kamala's performance like it was the best debate performance ever, because this is likely their last shot to give her a PR boost en masse. But the reality is most people had their minds made up already and didn't get any specifics from Kamalamadingdong to change their position. Factoring in she was down a solid 4 to 5 points in the polls (EC and the previous years anti-Trump bias in the polls), she might have edged a little closer, but she's probably still trailing.
Still delusional? While not impossible at this point a Trump victory in November would be equivalent to the New England Patriots victory in Super Bowl 51 in which they managed to overcome a 28-3 deficit.
You’re WAY overconfident. Harris will win the popular vote by 10 million. Maybe even more if young folks in urban areas show up. But on her best day the EC is a toss up, just like it was in ‘16 when the blue wall crumbled (Michigan, Wisconsin, PA) and in ‘20 when part of the red chain link fence went blue (GA, AZ, Nevada).
No way is a Harris victory a sure thing considering that Trump outperformed the polls in the blue wall states even when he lost in 2020. On the other hand since 2020 Democratic candidates have outperformed the polls in those states, a prime example being Michigan where Tudor Dixon, the election denying MAGA candidate endorsed by Trump lost to Gretchen Whitmer by a double digit margin even though the polls had the election within the margin of error and still speaking of Michigan for the first time in decades after the 2022 midterms the Democrats held every statewide office in the state plus both houses of the state legislature. Michigan Election Results (Published 2022) In a nominally nonpartisan election for a State Supreme Court seat in Wisconsin in which reproductive rights was the primary issue the liberal candidate beat the conservative by a 10 percentage point margin effectively flipping the court. 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court race results in a new majority
