Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

You wouldn't be the best debate coach if you advised your candidate to directly answer every question asked. It's the mark of a skilled debater to redirect the question and control the narrative, something Trump has done successfully in all but one Presidential debate.

Once Harris runs out of vapid, canned responses tomorrow night the world will get to witness a master class of word salad. She's an empty candidate with no principles, convictions or ability to articulately her policy positions. It's why Americans still don't know what she stands for, 30+ days after the soft coup.

 

So weird how trumps verbal diarrhea doesn’t seem to phase you. Have you listened to him speak before?

 

Trump has lost basically every debate he’s ever participated in, sans the most recent one with Biden, and never has an actual answer to the questions asked of him because he’s a moron, but for some reason Trumpers think he’s a brilliant debater. Lol. If Kamala had given Trump’s answer to childcare the other day, the most ridiculous case of word salad I’ve ever seen, the mainstream media and Trumpers would rake her over the coals from now until the end of time, but because Trump does it, it’s forgotten the next day. Lol.

 

Trump can barely complete a coherent sentence and he constantly gets names wrong. He's gotten a lot worse since 2016 and it's definitely concerning in terms of mental acuity

 

I anticipate most understand the house attempts to find middle ground to set odds. But don't underestimate betting market accuracy at predicting outcomes, especially for sports. If someone can beat the house, please let me know. GatorRade in post #656 has a good summary. I’ve made a few small wagers over the years and only seen a few times i thought the house missed the line and quickly took the bet. The last was FSU/UGA Orange Bowl. It opened at 13.5 and quickly jumped to roughly 21. 7 points is a big jump for Vegas odds. (final score 63-3)

But you do have a good point. In some of these big, unique events the betting odds might be more skewed by the personal bias of those who bet on it. One recent example was the total gold medal count in the recent Olympics. China was roughly 9-1 odds to win most golds which imo was too high and a good bet. In 2021 Olympics China lost to the USA in overall golds by only 1. And China hasn’t slowed down driving athletics at a state-run level. The point is, even at 9-1 no way I would bet against the US and for China. And probably others like me who didn't take China, which kept the line high. It could be the same for POTUS.

There are odds/futures markets in academia that attempt to account for influences. Predicit is one site. It currently has Harris favored roughly 53-49. Another is the Iowa Electronics Market out of University of Iowa and has been around for a few decades. It had been very accurate but like many others missed the 2022 Mid-terms. IEM currently has Harris way out front with odds at 80-20. Link below and a link for a wonkish analysis of its accuracy.

Good info, thanks

2024 U.S. Presidential Winner-Takes-All Market | Iowa Electronic Markets (uiowa.edu)


Ray Fair vs. Iowa Electronic Markets – MickBransfield.com

 

Parody account? Did you laugh while you typed this?

 

true, but his response (can’t really call them answers) are increasingly rambling and bizarre.

 

you really wanna go down this path? You think THAT sounds like gibberish?

 

Did she say that before or after Trump said he defeated Obama?

 

Somewhere in the passage of time

 

Liberal pollster predicts blowout victory for presidential candidate (msn.com)

A liberal pollster's latest projection shows Donald Trump securing a blowout victory over Kamala Harris.

Nate Silver's prediction places the Republican hopeful's chances of winning the electoral college vote at 63.8 percent, compared to 36 percent for Harris.

He predicts 312 electoral college votes for Trump versus 226 for Harris in a no toss-up map.

 

I was thinking something similar to this yesterday when I posted the NY Times Siena College Poll, 300+ electoral votes. Trump can afford to lose the national vote and win. Harris cannot lose the national vote and win. Trump's 2-point lead in the NY Times Siena College Poll is actually more impactful than 2% as it is in the national vote and when combined with Trump has always done better than polls reflect.

 

New Harvard-Harris poll out today has race tied 50-50 nationally. (ie Trump the winner)

Topline – September – Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll

 

Nate Silver, a self-proclaimed Harris supporter, not holding back on MSM propaganda:

 

For some reason maga continues to ignore Alan Lichtman

 

Doesn’t tell them what they want to hear = fake news.

 

I’m a bit surprised both sides focus on polls that show an outcome they prefer. But maga especially has been moving more to looking for confirmation bias. And this is more than just “your side stinks”, look at 2020. Fox had to pay $800M for telling lies.

 

Nate has always been a fraud and his analysis was never good