Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Yes, because they have Kamala Harris with a 0.1% lead in Georgia. It would take one poll there showing Trump +1 and it's 281-257 Trump.

Granted, RCP was about the best polling aggregator at gauging the 2020 election versus sites like 538, etc. But they still gave Biden a much larger lead (4 to 6 points) in Wisconsin and Michigan than he ended up seeing in the final vote. (not really their fault as they are simply using independent polls to compute their average) They currently have Harris +1.4% in Wisconsin and Harris +1.1% in Michigan. I believe this is why it's being widely reported that the Democrats internal polling numbers are not looking stellar. I'm not sold she's really leading in Wisconsin and Michigan. Of course, this is all wait and see.

 

It would also take one poll showing Harris +1 In Pennsylvania and it’s a “landslide”… see we both can do this…

 

PredictIt

 

Oh wow I didn’t realize Silver was working FOR polymarket. Which is owned by Peter Thiel. He’s literally on Thiel’s payroll. He’s officially on ignore now.

 

Silver just posted that with “convention bounce adjustment mode” off, Harris would be winning with 292 EC votes … actually better than what 538 shows.

 

I remember Silver as one of the original godfathers of baseball analytics well before his involvement in politics. Smart dude, but he definitely has dropped off in the quality of his content over the years, which is a shame.

 

Silver was off by a huge amount when he predicted the red wave. Check out Predictions for the 2024 Presidential Elections - Live Forecast — Race to the WH

 

Harris will win.

 

Harris within 4 points of Trump in Texas.

State of Texas: Two polls show Presidential race tightening in Texas

 

the 0.1 GA lead includes a Trump +4 poll from a month ago. The last 3 polls were within the last 2 weeks and were all Harris +1.0 or more ( and one tie)

 

A couple nuances here: First, Thiel is an investor in polymarket, but I’m not sure he’s rightly called “owner”. Second, Silver does indeed work as an advisor for polymarket, but he doesn’t make predictions for it. His predictive model is housed at his own website, silver bulletin.

And one bit of my own commentary: I think prediction markets are infinitely fascinating, and I’d accept a job at polymarket as well. Now if I had some crazed partisan hack making me do unethical things, I’d quit, but I highly doubt polymarket works that way. All betting lines only favor the house for sure if the money is evenly distributed on both sides of the bet. Diverging from this approach is basically guaranteed to bust the market in the long run.

 

In terms of where this race stands today, this is a really bad poll for Harris, as she needs to win the popular by 3 or more to secure the EC. Silver is basically saying she is behind and needs a "good night" to take command of the race. Define "good night" for Kamala. Most polls showed people thought Hillary won all 3 of her debates with Trump, but it didn't matter in the end. Trump would need to implode at the debate for it to move the needle. He's a guy who sees his numbers rise after indictments. Trump would need to have a disastrous, Biden-like performance for it to matter. That's not going to happen.

 

Once again, a reminder from 2008.

 

Kamala’s poll numbers are dropping faster than a turd in a toilet.

 

Being that she’s not near as well known, I think Kamala’s in a slightly different boat than Hillary, giving her more upside in a debate. Of course it also gives her more downside. I’ll be interested to see what happens on Tuesday anyway.