August payrolls grew by a less-than-expected 142,000

Is this your monthly "a recession is coming" post?

 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics August 2024 Jobs Report released this morning:

Employment Situation Summary - 2024 M08 Results (bls.gov)

New Jobs: 142,000 up from 114,000 in July
Unemployment Rate: 4.2% down from 4.3% in July

After saying the Hurricane in Texas had no temporary effect in July, those on temporary layoff went down 190,000. (shaking head)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in construction and health care.

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in August. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million. (See table A-1.)

Among the unemployed, the number of people on temporary layoff declined by 190,000 to 872,000 in August, mostly offsetting an increase in the prior month. The number of permanent job losers was essentially unchanged at 1.7 million in August. (See table A-11.)

The labor force participation rate remained at 62.7 percent in August and is little changed over the year. The employment-population ratio also was unchanged in August, at 60.0 percent, but is down by 0.4 percentage point over the year. (See table A-1.)

The next indexes to finish off what the Feds will use to decide on the size of a rate cut or no rate cut will be released next week with the CPI on 9/11, that's ominous, and the PPI on 9/12.

So far, I don't get that the US economy is rushing to the fire of recession or depression as the doom and gloomers are saying. The numbers coming in just don't support recession or depression. Now, maybe the federal government won't take our bank and credit union savings accounts. It's mass hysteria everywhere.

Again, I'm the lonely contrarian who wants to see next week's inflation reports before the Feds decide on September 18 & 19.

 

It’s time for the resident righties to cue up their “dropping rates in September is so unfair to Trump” threads.


Zero reason for Powell to hold rates, and plenty of reasons to make as much as a 50bp move at the September meeting.

 

I thought they faked the numbers. Why wouldn't they have made them higher?

 

For the mod who posted to me that can I not see a thread existed, no, the thread did not exist. It took me a time to create my post that I put online after this thread. I have no problem having my thread merged into this one, but being a smart aleck about it is overdoing things a bit don't you think?

 

One handed typing post!

 

It's unfair to the overburdened American people if inflation goes on an upswing again due to prematurely cutting rates.

How did you arrive at a .50 rate cut?

 

Setting up the new thread, adding links, cut and pastes up to the most impactful 4 paragraphs, and including my own observations for you to take a shot at. Once I posted, I went on to other threads to read and make comments on. I had no idea two threads were running.

 

Beat me to it, so I'll pivot. Can the OP plz predict a dip in the market? My investments could use a boost.

 

I didn’t arrive at anything. Most analyst models have priced either a 25 or 50 bp rate cut in September. Few to none have rates being held static.

 

I'm in the few that believe it is still premature to reduce rates. The PCE is at 2.5% down .1 from July. and the CPI All is at 2.9% and Core CPI at 3.2%. I haven't seen any indexes to suggest a .50 rate cut is needed. If we get a rate cut, I think it will be .25% as Powell seems to have painted the Fed into the corner of having to make a rate cut.

The unemployment rate went down from 4.3% to 4.2%. Construction was up over the 12-month average while manufacturing has maintained with little change over the last 12 months.

Given that it is desirous to have a soft landing why run the risk of returning to higher inflation when the index data doesn't yet support it?

 

That's not what MY post was referencing.

 

Dang, you are nasty, aren't you? (shaking head)

 

Wait.. how are you going to keep this thread and the "no rate cut coming" thread going at the same time? This should be funny.

It's pretty much a jobs report that showed unemployment ticked down while job numbers reflect employer's caution. Pretty much sets up a growing economy that is still due for a rate cut. Win Win for Madame President Id say.

 

Not as nasty as someone that gets turgid any time they read a headline that allegedly shows the country is doing worse. Which is what you root for.

 

What I find most amazing is how much the previous month's numbers have been changed. I know that they are always changed some, but these ar some pretty decent sized differences.

Payroll gains were revised from 179,000 to 118,000 in June and from 114,000 to 89,000 in July

 

The report increase the possibility that when the Fed meets in a little over a week it will lower the interest rate by 50 basis points (0.5%) rather than the 25 points (0.25%) originally anticipated. Lower interest rates would most likely have a positive impact on housing and auto sales.