Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Nate Silver really going long on President Trump...

 

DJT is down 70% from peak.

Not really. He's already stated that if she maintains her polling averages that she will become the favorite

 

This simulation says if you have a weak stomach go to bed and just find out in the morning…

 

Huh ... Trump wins Pennsylvania and still loses ... seems unlikely but I'll take it. Harris has multiple paths to victory.

 

Was weird. Had NC and GA for Harris and PA, NV and Az for Trump. I say, no way.

 

I think there will only be one debate and it will decide the election

 

Id be surprised if anyone would switch their vote if trump lays or turd... or if Harris does poorly either. I cant see it making a difference. Media coverage maybe, but no impact. I am not even sure why they would debate other than hoping the other says something they can use as a talking point at rallies to people already voting for them.

 

I am not sure if many ever switch their votes, but events can definitely make a difference in elections. Look at the last debate. It actually caused a candidate to be replaced.

 

If Trump takes a dump on the floor during the debate, I will switch my vote to him. Could someone please let him know?

 

Allan Lichtman just predicted that Harris will win the election

 

surprised in the jump for silvers model. Betting odds still show a little better than a coin flip for trump. Unfortunately, imo it’s his to lose if he taps down crazy. She needs a dynamic debate, get him to go nuts. And she really needs to be a moderate. Talk again about signing that border bill, the deficit, and if she wants to discuss “unrealized gains tax” (Which wouldn’t seem advisable in a campaign) make sure it’s known it’s for net worth of >$100M. Lots of potential centrists and especially ABT RINOs are adverse to anything progressive. And a platform of only highlighting how Trump-is-awful won’t work as well for her like it did for Biden.


Below still shows Harris.



betting odds closer.



Predictions for the 2024 Presidential Elections - Live Forecast — Race to the WH

 

Allan! My man!

 

I dont think people on this board understand betting odds. They are used to induce a break even betting level so that the house can make money regardless of who wins. It reflects the passion betting people have on who will win. Men disproportionately support Trump and gamble which requires longer odds on Harris to balance the bets.

You are welcome.

 

People throwing down large sums of money on this see fear in Kamala. Joe got a pass for staying in his basement in 2020, because of Covid. He being very elderly aided with the fact Covid is so rough on seniors. Plus, Joe didn't exude fear necessarily. Kamala, OTOH, is exuding fear. Declining interviews and when she finally agreed to the only interview she has given in over a month and a half since becoming the presumptive nominee, she had to have Walz sitting next to her. And then there is the video of her the other day pretending to be talking on her phone as she waves off the press. Problem was, she had wired earbuds in. That entire video looks extremely awkward.

She is not ready for prime time. Again, Joe was able to get away with it in 2020, largely because people knew he could hold his own in interviews given his time as VP and senator. People generally accepted that despite the lack of public appearances, Joe was able to give a decent interview or answer a few hard questions. I almost want to feel sorry for her, but I can't. She was thrust into this very quickly and so not being ready for prime time makes sense. But can't feel sorry for her when if she had simply been honest, she could have gotten herself several more months to prepare for this race.

 

I always look to see what he's going to say. What's crazy is he doesn't even look at polls for his predictions.

 

You are correct on how betting odds are derived, but I think you are underestimating the amount of information that these odds convey. If it were easy to see when a market was overvaluing a position, it would allow investors to easily clean up. Of course, once they started to do so, the odds would change closing the door to this windfall. This is one of the keys that makes prediction markets so successful: they reward minority viewpoints. Impressively, a study found that a prediction market outperformed a survey of psychology experts regarding which findings in psychology would replicate. And the market was entirely made up of the same exact experts.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1516179112

 

Generally speaking, the betting odds market are quite good at predicting outcome.

 

where is the fraud or expected fraud??? asking in general, not you, pit