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Bart Torvik - Baketball Computer Geek

Discussion in 'Nuttin but Net' started by tampajack1, Sep 2, 2024.

  1. tampajack1

    tampajack1 Premium Member

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    Torvik is one of the best in the business. Here are some of his projections that might interest you:

    1. 2025 rankings of SEC teams:
    Tennessee #5
    Auburn #7
    Alabama #9
    Texas #11
    Texas A&M #21
    Mississippi State #22
    Kentucky #23
    Arkansas #31
    Florida #36
    Mississippi #39
    Georgia #40
    South Carolina #54
    Oklahoma #56
    Missouri #63
    LSU #70
    Vanderbilt #75

    2. 2025 rankings of possible Gator non-conference opponents ranked in the top-100:
    FSU #94
    Wake Forest #33
    Minnesota #71
    Wichita State #100
    Virginia #64
    Arizona State #68
    UNC #6

    3. Playing time and scoring of top Gator players:
    Clayton Jr. 32 mpg 18 ppg
    Richard 31 mpg 14 ppg
    Martin 28 mpg 11 ppg
    Condon 26 mpg 10 ppg
    Alexis 24 mpg 7 ppg
    Haugh 20 mpg 6 ppg
    Chinyelu 15 mpg 4 ppg
    Brown 12 mpg 4 ppg
    Aberdeen 8 mpg 3 ppg

    4. Playing time and scoring of players of interest to Gator fans:
    Malik Reneau (Indiana) 32 mpg 16 ppg
    Ques Glover (Ohio State) 28 mpg 12 ppg
    Blue Cain (Georgia) 28 mpg 11 ppg
    Asa Newell (Georgia) 26 mpg 10 ppg
    Riley Kugel (Mississippi State) 26 mpg 9 ppg
    Jalen Reed (LSU) 26 mpg 10 ppg
    Kowacie Reeves (Ga Tech) 30 mpg 14 ppg
    Trey Bonham (Chattanooga) 30 mpg 15 ppg


    That's it folks. No opinions from me on any of the foregoing, but have at it.
     
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  2. oragator1

    oragator1 Hurricane Hunter Premium Member

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    I’m hoping we are better than a nine seed some tournament time. But it’s good to be safely inside the preseason bubble these days too.
     
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  3. FranceGator

    FranceGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Lots of fascinating snippets in there:
    • Still ain't buyin' the Auburn love
    • FSU...hahaha
    • Kudos to Ques for being on the radar like that, hope it happens for him
    • I'm ok with Kugel having a decent season but hope he "brings back memories" in our game, so to speak
     
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  4. rserina

    rserina GC Hall of Fame

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    I love Torvik’s stuff, which is now officially part of the tournament selection criteria, IIRC. But its predictive quality is way, way off. He doesn’t even list Klavzar. No way Brown plays more than Aberdeen, Richard more than Martin, Alexis more than Haugh and Chinyelu. And I don’t see a world in which Richard scores more than both Martin and Condon.

    On teams, I would have Bama much higher and Tennessee lower. And I will be shocked if, in year 3 with this many returnees, we are a 9-seed.
     
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  5. GatorPlanet

    GatorPlanet GC Hall of Fame

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    What jumps out is the overall strength of the SEC in this ranking. The worst team in the conference is listed as the #75 team in the country. Which is a bubble team, albeit on the wrong side of the bubble. The Gators, at #36, would be a 9-seed in the NCAAT, the same as they would be for the SEC tournament. Torvik's prediction would have 11 teams in the NCAAT, and several more right on the bubble.
    However, these preseason polls, whether human, computer, or space alien, have little bearing on reality.
     
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  6. murphree_hall

    murphree_hall VIP Member

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    This looks off. Condon 10 ppg? Gators #36 and Kentucky with a new coach and system #23?
     
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  7. GatorPlanet

    GatorPlanet GC Hall of Fame

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    UK is always loaded with talent. This season is no exception, and they've now got a better coach.
    What's the issue with Condon at 10 ppg? Our starting 5 that won 2 national championships all averaged right around 10 points each. Balance is a good thing.
     
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  8. rserina

    rserina GC Hall of Fame

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    More so that he averaged 8 pts in 20 minutes a game last year as freshman who was a little loose with the ball, struggled to finish some of his post moves around the rim (only 50% from 2), and was bad from the line to start the season (62% in non conference play vs. 73% in conference play). If his usage rate gets up in Samuel's range (23.5 against Condon's 19.6), in conjunction with more minutes and hopefully more consistency finishing plays in the paint and hitting his free throws, he should easily be in that 12-14 ppg range. The staff apparently has a ton of confidence that he makes a huge jump, and we've seen that they aren't afraid to run things through the post (with Samuel, Castleton, and even Massalski back at SF).
     
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  9. murphree_hall

    murphree_hall VIP Member

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    @rserina pretty much summed it up above. I just think he's better than 10 ppg, and he's also now going to be our primary front court scoring option. You figure he'd be good for 13-15 ppg unless he starts shooting bricks or the guards ball hog.
     
  10. GatorLurker

    GatorLurker GC Hall of Fame

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    I remember watching a game during the David Lee/Walsh/Roberson era where Matt and Peep were taking too many shots early in the shot clock during the first half and I told my wife that David Lee would at least get a touch for the first ten second half possessions. And he did. I am sure that BD got in their ears at halftime.
     
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  11. GatorPlanet

    GatorPlanet GC Hall of Fame

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    David Lee was easily the best player on that team.
     
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  12. GatorLurker

    GatorLurker GC Hall of Fame

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    IIRC David was the last pick of the first round in the NBA draft and drafted by the Knicks. Also IIRC Spike Lee was not happy with the pick. I would hope that he changed his mind over time.
     
  13. akaGatorhoops

    akaGatorhoops GC Columnist VIP Member

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    I think this will prove quite inaccurate.
     
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  14. russ21

    russ21 Premium Member

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    His algorithm understandably doesn’t really get clicking until the games get played
     
  15. paidinfull

    paidinfull GC Hall of Fame

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    None of them do. Preseason and early season rankings and projections are all a crapshoot. Never understood why people get worked up about them.
     
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  16. jeffphillips21

    jeffphillips21 GC Hall of Fame

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    per usual with these "experts"
     
  17. tampajack1

    tampajack1 Premium Member

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    Torvik unquestionably is an expert, but he is trying to make pre-season projections for 364 teams. That’s not easy. He’s got VMI at #364. He also has Walker Andrews on VMI only getting 4 mpg. What do you think?
     
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  18. rserina

    rserina GC Hall of Fame

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    It’s just a statistical model, not a prediction or subjective analysis. As someone else said, it’s based on statistical input, and we don’t have sufficient data yet for this season. But Torvik’s model does a great job of adjusting for pace and competition and is very helpful measuring where teams are at as the season progresses. I think his model nailed the sweet 16 last year, and always had Bama higher than other ratings.
     
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  19. GatorPlanet

    GatorPlanet GC Hall of Fame

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    I could not care less about what NBA fans think of their draft picks. Chicago Bulls fans were loudly booing the waste of a selection in zero-talent Joakim Noah. They absolutely loved him halfway through the season though.
     
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  20. GatorPlanet

    GatorPlanet GC Hall of Fame

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    I do agree that at about the midway point in the season, Torvik's is probably the closest to reality.