Speaking of Nate Silver.... Last update: 1:00 p.m., Saturday, August 31: Another day of slight decline for Kamala Harris, and it’s the same culprits — the convention bounce adjustment, which you’re welcome to argue with but I defend in the new edition of SBSQ, and the polling in Pennsylvania, where we added two new polls showing Trump slightly ahead. Democrats shouldn’t worry so much about the Trafalgar poll; it counts as a Republican poll by our standards and the model accounts for its strong GOP house effect. But a Wick poll showing Harris down a point in the multiway matchup isn’t great for the vice president, especially considering it shows that she would have run much stronger with Josh Shapiro on the ticket. Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
I'm not sure that any of the simulations are really meaningful at this point in the election cycle. That being said according the most recent simulation from 538, there is 57% chance that Harris will be elected. By the way you seem to keep omitting the adjective "former" in reference to former President Trump. Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
Dactile also has Harris at 58% based on the polls. Silver will fade his convention bounce remover over the next two weeks… and unless the polls change… okee will stop posting about Silver…
Looks like the helium is being let out of the balloon... all but one key battleground state trending back towards Trump this week.
When Biden was the presumptive nominee Trump was ahead in every swing state and ahead of Biden outside of the margin of error in several polls. Harris is ahead in a majority of polls and when she is behind the results are still within the MOE (Texas and Florida aren't considered swing states, Trump has always had a sizeable lead in those two states).
There will be a post debate bump for one of the candidates. I think there is a lot riding on the debate.
In what way? Walz is a huge reason for the boost she got in the first place. Shapiro has massive baggage when it comes to the war in Gaza that simply was too much to ignore and the right would absolutely hammer him on that instead of these weak attacks they’re lobbing at Walz that aren’t sticking.
You think Trump wins Pennsylvania after they already rejected him in 2020 and he’s only become more unhinged since then? I don’t. It will be close, but we will see.
I disagree. She would have lost progressives if she went with Shapiro. I think with Walz you get both progressives and moderates
And it's not like Shapiro wasn't under consideration and willing to take the position. In fact, he was the purported front-runner for the slot in the days leading up to her before she picked Walz. Totally baffling as to why she picked a progressive from Minnesota?? She really needed someone to offset her voting record in the Senate a bit. Shapiro checked all the boxes. The only thing I can deduce is that she was fearful that Shapiro would cost her votes with the pro-Palestinian/Hamas contingent. Which highlights the brutal failure that is identity politics. Picks like this don't happen by mistake though. If she thought like you and I did, she picks Shapiro over Walz 10 out of 10 times. There was a reason she snubbed Shapiro and it's probably not a very good one.
Trump leading with Hispanics by double 8igits in Florida. Harri ahead with blacks in the sunshine state by only 50-60%. Per a Univ of North Florida poll Not many post-DNC polls being released because they look bad for Harris. That include Democrat private polling. Per Mark Halperin. Pennsylvania looks bad. Harris is wilting and Trump is a strong finisher. As some said months ago, the Dems were better off with Biden than Garris because older working class voters still liked him in swing states. Harris may poll out of the debate given her poor performance w/ Dana Bash. Kamala has always been Hindu and never was Christian as advertised which will hurt in Pennsylvania imo. The state is also tough going in statewide elections for people of color
