The next four games

yeah, I’ve both read about his offensive philosophy and heard some podcasters quoting Napier on it/talking about it over the first two seasons. They explain it much better than I can and I found it super interesting.

much if not all of it is around his passing game concepts, not his run fits. His run game concepts are supposedly pretty good if not great. The opposite for his passing game.

 

to sum it up in one word….correct.

 

I don’t know all the correct football terminology but…

Say a defense is playing man to man (wether cover 1 or cover 0 or anything similar - man to man defense)- there are route trees and concepts that work specifically against this defense that helps get receivers wide open. Routes called “man beaters”. Teams we play against do this against us all the time. It is not diffucuot.

billys strategy is to run the same route trees regardless of the defense being played - any zone or man- doesn’t matter. His route trees can/could be effective against these defenses but they are not the optimal route trees. We run the same 3 WR flood routes on one side of the field vs every defensive formation. Receivers can run one of multiple routes depending on what the defense does. So, theoretically, amWR can break off a route at a certain depth and the QB make the throw. But…this requires both qb and WR being on the same page and the WR always beating the defense.

when you run say man beaters vs a man to man defense, it is more likely someone comes wide open since your strategy is tactically designed to do so.

how often do you see WRs running wide open vs our defense and how often do you see UF receivers running wide open down the field? Billy’s offense (passing) can work but will never be the optimal call. So frustrating. And every DC knows this.

the only game where he did change it up was at Tennessee in 2022.

 

A

nd Miami kept grouping three receivers kinda like Napier tries to do but Miami got numbered almost every time . It was sad.

 

I think the true barometer here is how low the Gators have fallen for anyone to say our season barometer is on these next 4 games. Many of these type of games were mostly ignored by fans because of the high level of expectation on winning. Regardless how we end up record wise or if Napier makes it thru or what game he is fired after, this "barometer" question is proof enough things aren't right in Gatorville.

 

That's why they have one more shot to get the right coach this last time around, and his name is Kiffin.

 

Winning the easiest games is expected. Maybe there’s no shame is losing to Miami but that was the end. Winning the next 3-4 games and then getting obliterated isn’t going to get it.

 

I thought surprising, is that there was no surprise route for WR's to get open more. therefore, DB's for Miami had an easy cover. Spurrier was famous for creating plays on the fly in games. Why not now?

 

So here's what I see with Napier. Napier got hired at the same time Deboer did. Washington imploded the year before resulting in their HBC getting fired and about 60% of the team bolting for the portal. Prior to Deboer:

2014: 8-6
2015: 7-6
2016: 12-2 (lost to Alabama in the CFP semis)
2017: 10-3 (lost to Penn St in the Fiesta Bowl)
2018: 10-4 (lost to Ohio St in the Rose Bowl)
2019: 8-5
2020: 3-1 (before Covid ended the season)
2021: 4-8 (HBC is fired)

Now for those that haven't looked at Washington before, they are a tale of 2 programs. Those years they were successful we followed by 2020 and 2021, under a new HBC. Chris Peterson resigned after the 2019 season after serving as HBC for 6 years between 2014 and 2019. The new HBC lasted just 2 seasons and resulted in almost a complete dismantling of the program. They went from a successful program to nothing in one season. Deboer comes in 2022 and immediately sees success by beating Texas in the Alamo Bowl finishing 11-2, Washington's best season ever to this point (they actually finished the season with a win). In 2023, we all know what happened there, lost to Michigan in a close contest. So Deboer in one off season had to hire all new coaches because he didn't have any that came over with him since he wasn't a HBC and he has to recruit 60% of the team. Still transforms the program to an 11-2 record and then builds on that his 2nd season to go undefeated until losing to Michigan in the CFP final. Napier has to deal with the same thing, yet doesn't put together anything better his 1st season, nor his 2nd, and so far starts off his 3rd stanza with the worst home-opening loss in school history.

Cristabol also follows the same path as Napier, starts with 2 subpar seasons but in the 2nd off season makes massive strides in the portal and recruiting. Starts year 3 with putting Napier on a glowing red hot seat. Our program wasn't that bad when Napier got hired. We had a few good players in place like the #1 NFL draft pick AR. Yet, he couldn't do anything with him. Now we supposedly have a stellar recruiting off season yet the results are the same, maybe worse.

If this is Napier's end, we can't hire projects anymore. We need to pull a Georgia or Bama and go after the best out there. Bama in my eyes is how you hire a replacement to a legend. A+++ compared to our F---. They didn't beat around the bush when Saban gave his surprise retiring. We must do the same or it'll be the same outcome.

Now, I'm all for to see what happens in the next 3 games. If we go 3-0 during that time, then I chalk it up to 1st game jitters or lack of preparation or maybe playing the eventual CFP champion. But if we go 1-2, with the only win against Samford, then that's the end. I don't see us winning another game after that.

 

Join us at Dennys!

 

yeah
I've listened to a few of those same things you are talking about and they actually break it down even more. They said while in our pistol formation we have a great success rate but it's when we go into other formations that we have less success. They stated primarily the formations that require a more mobile QB, as they said CBN's offense is better suited for a mobile QB. Hopefully we see DJ takeover more of the reigns of this offense and start seeing that improvement.

 

That's only because we have the worst offensive line in all of college football. You have to be mobile or you're dead meat.

 

1 and 3 in the next four. Hopefully Sanford doesn't own us like Georiga Southern did when Muffcramp was working his magic.

 

I'll just add a couple things to your post. To be clear I'm not arguing anything in your post. And I'm not saying deboer isn't a good coach. Just adding to what I seen as I skimmed over your post. Just playing a little devils advocate for fun.

1. Hiring a new (big name) coach to coach the most successful team over the last 15 years is MUCH easier than hiring a coach for a team with 3 straight losing seasons and have had 4 coaches in that same 15 year span.

2. To be fair Washington played in a now basically defunct conference in which is now the Pac2. Compared to the SEC who made up nearly half of the whole preseason top 25. Oregon was the only decent team in that conference during that time. Not saying wash wasn't any good, just saying it's a bit easier as a new team (coach, staff etc) to get prepared for your only ranked team you play that year than it is to play your ranked OOC foes plus nearly all your conference foes ranked too.

 

If we lose to Texas A$M in the swamp, there may be a hanging party. Hopefully Billy is a quick runner.

 

We still lack talent on both lines. The OL can’t block the guy in front of him and the DL , including the 450 lb guy, gets pushed backwards for 8 yards is not coaching. We put in a TE (coaching move) to block the speed guy and he gets manhandled.

 

Who’s fault is that?

 

knowing tebow he would probably want to suit up and get in there...that's the kind of competitor he is

 

Honest question: if we won the next 4, are you happy and thinking we are on the right track or is it a black swan event that gives false hope in this staff? I certainly want us to win every game and I rationally believe that we are damaged beyond repair under BN. If he turns it around and we win 8/9 games, great. What I don’t want is him (us) limping into year 4 off a 5 win season with another 5+ game losing streak.