Nate Silver isn’t associated with 538 anymore…. 538’s model is brand new because silver owned the IP to the old model and took it with him when he left. 538s original model wasn’t great because it was set to weigh the incumbent advantage and economics over polling until the election got closer, then it would phase that out. There relaunched model looks more closely tied to polling, which is fine with me. Also, Silver and Barnes have the same exact 50/50 record for the past two presidential elections…. Same as me… I’m as good at predicting as Silver and Barnes … it’s a known fact.
Yes I realize Nate Silver is no longer with 538. He",s gone and now Rich Baris' Big Dats poll is in the 638 aggregator. Barnes has only missed on 1 presidential race in 9ver 3 decades, the won that was rigged. If Silver is legit how did he overestimate Docrat share of the vote in every state in 2016.and 202 Thst's a perfect 100-0. If you think you can pick 1 state where Nate will underestimate the Harris share in 2024 pick the state and Bsrnes will take the bet
Barnes and Baris predicted in advance the 2020 would be rigged. Covid was used to make it happen. Xi played his psrt
Look, I can see you want more out of me, but it’s $500 a year for the news letter. No freebees. I’ve also only missed one presidential election in 3 decades… Bush, Bush, Obama, Obama, Clinton, Biden … I’m freaking amazing!
meaningless. Mkts are FAR, FAR smarter than individuals. Why don't the mkts predict it? Trump should underperform the polls (& yr boys should predict that if they believe in fraud). If elections are rigged, there should be a mis-match between polls & betting mkts with the mkts making the Dems seem more likely to win than the polls do. This is pretty basic stuff. Seems like as soon as idiots gotta put their money where their mouth is, fraud vanishes. In econ it's called revealed preference & it has been revealed.
Looking at multiple polls, I'm not ready to call it a surge. I'd give it another week to see if the convention bounce settles down. What is telling in the article is the dramatic swing from Trump to Harris within those specific demographics. I doubt these groups were ever pro-Trump so much as anti-Biden.
This is what has come in the past two days, from a site that historically overweights the Trump opponent. If this is her convention bounce, she's in major trouble.
I’m curious how much of a difference heavy campaigning will do. Harris will be relentless on the trail. Biden won it “from his basement.”
Real Clear Politics Flipped the electoral college race to Harris today -- 270 - 268. Real Clear Politics include all the known right leaning polls, too, like Rassmussen, Trafalgar, Insider Advantage, etc...
Data Guru Marvels At Stunning Increase In Voter Registration Since Kamala Harris Took Over: ‘You Just Don’t See That’
Well to be fair you don’t see that because you don’t normally switch candidates in July. Having said that, it’s clear the correct decision was made by Joe to step down. We shall see if it results in a win.
