War in Ukraine

I'm gonna have to call BS. If what Ukraine has done in Kursk is going to be the measuring stick, they got 20 km into Russian territory and have been stopped. Contrast that with Russia's invasion in 2022, where they reached the outskirts of Kyiv. This after hanging out on the Ukrainian border for a year (ie everybody and their grandmother knew what was coming for a long time) Yes, eventually the Russians pulled back, but that is a helluva lot more impressive than 20 km of forestland in the Kursk region. Based on the reinforcements I am seeing that Russia have brought in that region, that line is going nowhere but backward towards the Ukrainian border and this has been evidenced by the movement over the past 48 to 72 hours. This appears to be a massive failure on Ukraine's part. If you are going to make such a bold move, you want to do a lot more than what they have done.

Just admit it, Ukraine did this out of desperation. 1 in 20 times perhaps, desperation pays off in a war? I think it may even be more rare than that. For a surprise attack into enemy territory, the Kursk offensive has been a giant dud. You really have to ask what in the hell they were thinking, because if you invade a country the size of Russia, you better have a Wehrmacht and even then, you don't stand a prayer.

 

The quote said "troops" so I would guess manpad but that's just a guess. Still waiting for the first A2A confirmation

 

Tend to agree. That’s the highest probability.

 

Why do you think that Ukraine isn't attempting to control the sky over the battlefield? Fear of losing a plane/pilot?

 

I don’t know that they aren’t. Ukraine has very good reasons for hiding their moves, and it has served them to this point.

 

Ukraine claims to control .0064% of Russia.

Russia controls 22% (and growing) of what used to be Ukraine.

 

Russia is waking up to the fact that Putin and the Russian military are not in control of the war, and the Ukrainian troops on Russian soil are in no hurry to leave. They are much more nervous about losing the war than they ever were before Ukraine invaded Russia, and they are starting to blame Russia's leadership. Prognosis: humiliation and devastation. Confidence in Russia's military: minimal.

Opinion - Russians are waking up to Putin’s Ukraine folly

 

A house of cards that has a bunch of nukes. That said they can't be suicidal. ( at least let's hope not).

 

Ah. Got it now. You are still erroneously measuring this war in terrain captured. Reminds of the 2008 game against Georgia, which they lost 49-10 but kept insisting it was closer than it was because their rushing yards exceeded ours. Or, if you like, when the loser of a Presidential election brings up the popular vote. Both instances show people who refuse to understand what the score is or how to score. You think the Russians are "winning" and have "thwarted" the Ukrainian incursion because the Russians have more of Ukraine and, like, the Ukrainians have failed to reach Vladivostok in the East and Archangelsk in the North. Except that this particular game goes on until one side quits, not when one side captures this or that. And the measures of performance for which side will quit first are far more nested within domestic support (casualties is one; economic damage is another) than they are within capturing terrain. So I would say Russia has not "thwarted" the Ukrainian incursion anymore than Ukraine has "thwarted" the Russian army that is on its own soil. The Ukrainians have contained it, slowed it, bloodied it, and so on. But they will not have "thwarted" it until the last Russian is in Russia. Ukraine is still in Russia. And, yeah, I stipulate that the terrain itself is of little value (without considering how it aids the defense tactically) except that the terrain is Russia, and the Ukrainians are on it. Still. Three weeks later. They are daring the Russian to come give battle, and the Russians are thus far unable or unwilling.

That may very well be. Still, the Russians have yet to do it. When they do, we can discuss the implications, especially if they cause serious damage to the Ukrainian force in the process. Until then, the Russians are just unable or unwilling.

Why would I need to "admit" that Ukraine acts out of desperation? They are in a war of national survival. Everything they have done since February 2022 has been desperate. Begging for international aid was desperate. Flooding their own rivers around Kyiv to slow the Russian advance was desperate. Their counteroffensive in the summer of 2022 was desperate. Of course, this was a highly risky move that they would not have done if the stakes were not so high for them. Will it end up being a wise one? Don't know yet. Neither do you.

 

Clearly, Ukraine was not prepared for Russia's initial invasion. (Fortunately, neither was Russia.) Both sides have had time to be fully prepared for any possible military move by the other, so there should not be any major surprises at this point without one side taking a major risk. Ukraine's invasion has been a success so far for the reasons that they had a chance to disrupt some of Russia's supply lines and local infrastructure; they have launched a few attacks against airfields and oil/fuel depots; they have made ordinary Russians seriously question their own leadership; and (so far) the vast majority of the Ukrainian troops have survived the adventure. As far as raids go, it's been a great success. In the future, Russia will have to keep more (actual) troops dedicated to defending the border, in case Ukraine does this again.

 

If Ukraine loses, they cease to exist. If Russia loses, they may feel humiliated but Russia won't cease to exist.

 

That is a fact.

 

Your defending of Russia is truly puzzling.

 

Yeah sure... terrain is of little value, even though consistently and without letup, Zelenskyy's stated mission has always been terrain. The irony here of this post is that it is the Russians who are far less worried about "terrain." They are content to wage a war of attrition, making small incremental gains here and there, until they wear out the Ukrainians who don't have the manpower or the production capability to keep up with them over a long, drawn out conflict. If the front line was frozen today with a ceasefire, Russia is quite glad. Ukraine is angry.

Obviously, it has to do with terrain. But I understand you trying to make us believe it's not about terrain just comes with the territory. Whatever you've gotta tell yourself to make yourself believe it's a worthwhile venture to be involved in, you're going to tell yourself (and everybody here). Of course it's about terrain. It's always been about terrain.

 

Thanks for confirming I am not defending Russia.

 

Terrain may be the ultimate goal (along with control of the people), but it means little at the moment. Whichever side defeats the other and drives the other side to surrender or leave Ukraine has won the war and gets to control the country and its people and resources.

The war is also a race against time. Popular support for the war is eroding in Russia as more soldiers die and the economy struggles more and more with sanctions, inflation, and crumbling infrastructure. At some point, a coup becomes more and more likely, and the war could end that way. If Ukraine is still able to continue fighting for another five years (a big IF, obviously), Russia may not be willing or able to continue, even if Putin insists that Russia continue. Ukraine is obviously tired of fighting this war, but it is a fight for their freedom, so they have intrinsic motivation to continue.

 

The only thing that fans of Russia's invasion of Ukraine have to worry about is growing instability in the Kremlin as a result of Ukraine's invasion of Kursk.

Opinion - The Kursk debacle highlights growing Kremlin instability

 

Scranton's artillery shell plant has increased production by 50% since the war started. (Would be nice if they could have doubled or tripled production, but 50% is not too bad.) The plant is finishing a $400 million modernization.

Pennsylvania ammo plant boosts production of key artillery shell in Ukraine's fight against Russia