It never seemed to bother him much when he was trailing Hillary by 9 points. In both elections, Trump made up major ground down the stretch. But it's too late to change your vote now.
Once again 2024 isn't 2016 (it's more like 2008) and you and the candidate that you are supporting could very well be in for a rude awakening come the night of November 5. Actually Trump may be coming to the realization that he is likely to lose and is already laying the ground work claiming that his probable loss will be the result of massive election probably including the nonexistent illegal votes by dead people and undocumented immigrants.
For all the talk and predictions, the overwhelming vast major of voters will do so based in how they voted in 2020. Unquestionably, Harris will crush Trump in the popular vote. But the electoral college will be a different animal. Whichever candidate energizes more of their respective followers to get off their butt and vote,particularly in the roughly 3 states where it remains a true toss-up, will win the electorate. It’s how Trump won in 2016, and how Biden won 2020.
This is from 2022. Youth turnout will be much higher in the 2024 presidential election and keep in mind that after the 2022 election for the first time in decades Democrats controlled both Houses of the Michigan State legislature as well as winning elections for the Governorship, the Secretary of State and the AG and speaking of the governorship the polls had the race for governor within the margin of error with Gretchen Whitmer leading the MAGA Trumper Tudor Dixon by four points or less. Whitmer was reelected by a double-digit margin. Michigan Had the Highest Youth Voter Turnout in the 2022 Midterms - Alliance for Youth Action Trump endorses Tudor Dixon in Michigan governor’s race Tudor Dixon Said Donald Trump Won the Election Michigan Governor Election Results (Published 2022)
unfortunately for her it’s too close. Harris is new to the race which provided excitement and energized the campaign. Then the DNC. imo she should be doing better. Why is it so close? I’m not really seeing how she pulls ahead. And as we learn about her leadership, her price gauging/price freezes & raising corp taxes is getting her labeled as more progressive. many moderates & RINO-ABTs will be uncomfortable with that. In her upcoming cnn interview she should mention moderate positions. e.g. Restate how she’ll sign the border bill written by a staunch conservative. Or talk about…..US DEBT. moderates/ RINOs actually still care about that. For Trump, as bad as he is and the damage he’ll do to our country, our democracy, and deliberately stoke unrest-it’s already baked in. No one left to suddenly learn this about him. But, the election is still more than a couple months out and Trump can still do something crazy or some major event - October surprise.
What makes you think she isn't doing better? Her numbers have skyrocketed it since the original announcement. On top of that we are still waiting on polls to be taken post convention
Absolutely agree. But watching if it continued at that same curve, hopefully into double digits. But it has plateaued at roughly, just better than a coin-flip in her favor. Below is an odds mkt for a week and month. But maybe it will continue to improve, but just at a slower rate.
I kind of agree -apart from grocery price controls I think things have gone about as well as can be expected for her, and Trump/vance has been a train wreck as usual. Yet it’s still a toss up.
there are very roughly 600k - 700k black women in each of Pa & Mi. So a subset of that for young women. Could be a decent amount.
Take into account that most oddsmakers had Trump with a 20% to 25% chance of winning in 2016 and less than a 20% chance of winning in 2020. Trump won 300+ EV in 2016 and almost took it in 2020. Hopefully nobody is picking out drapes with him hanging out around 48% with the oddsmakers...
Odds are for the outcome of a binary result. win or lose. So in 2020 he did lose, so the “prediction” was accurate.
Thanks for that insight, but I think you may have missed the point. She is doing worse than Hillary or Biden did against him at this stage in the game and as you noted, she has probably peaked. I think Trump wins comfortably with 300 to 318 EV. She is not as strong a candidate as Hillary and she won't be able to escape the horrors of the Biden inflation and immigration policy.
