Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

It kind of reminds me of investment experts. People who called a top or bottom once are always predicting the next top or bottom. They seem about as accurate as flipping a coin.

 

The experiment has probably been done, but I am sure a coin flip does better on avg.

30 sec search

Market Forecasts a Coin Flip

 

I am going to plead ignorance on this one. Is most polling done by calling landline, cell phones, talking to people on the street, or a combination of the foregoing?

 

not 100% sure myself. But my suspicion is that young people are less likely to respond no matter the mode, especially if by cell phone. I doubt many if any, have landline phones.

 

my sample size is only 2, but my kids’ behavior supports your hypothesis.

 

No

 

Who answers calls on your cellphone from unknown, non-local numbers? Weirdos, that's who.

 

50-50 is 50-50. While Trump outperformed the polls in 2016 and 2020, 2024 is not 2016 or 2020. Trump has become more unhinged since then and enthusiasm for the Democratic presidential candidate is now at its highest level for any election year since 2008 and let's not forget Democratic candidates significantly outperformed the polls in the 2022 midterms. Citing Michigan once again, the polls had the incumbent Democrat Gretchen Whitmer in a statistical dead heat with the MAGA election denier Tudor Dixon. Whitmer ended up winning by doubles figures.

 

everyone prob knows this, but this is how the Dewey def Truman thing happened. Rich peeps were more likely to be pubs & more likely to have phones. Weirdos are more likely to ans rando calls & are def more likely to be pub. Don't know if the "experts" make a weirdo adj in the their data.

 

Yougov is good at capturing young voters. They run polls all for all kinds of things. I'm sure there's a poll for the nation's most popular football team and America's favorite food. Because they already have a base of people that they pull for other questions you don't have the feeling of a stranger reaching out to you want to vote for

 

Is it randomly selected? And is it based on young voters? Or anyone including non-voters?

 

I don't remember. I haven't been on there in a few years

 

Voter turnout by group will decide this election. Obama had large turnout of younger voters which voted D by a 2:1 margin, and minorities that had even larger splits, and that propelled him to the victory. 2016 saw significant declines in these groups and Trump eeked out a victory in several swing states, and won the election. 2020 saw an increase in minority voters and Biden got the win.

It's not difficult to determine where young voters will place their vote. But how many will show up? That's not easy to determine. It's possible we'll see a repeat of 2008 where the younger voters showed up in record numbers, which will mean a likely Harris win. It's also possible Harris won't carry her current momentum through September and October.

 

I’m intrigued. I’ve been looking for somewhere safe to invest my nest egg.

 

for perspective, Black Sunday is the #1 blimp movie of all time.

 

See, now I want to see James Cameron do a Hindenburg movie...

 

I started with as low as $10,000 actually because it was my first time and it was successful. He's been able to help me pay off my debts

 

no

 

Several new polls came out yesterday and today.
WHERE ARE ALL OUR USUAL POSTERS WITH UPDATES??

 

It’s looking worse and worse by the day for Diaper Don so of course they’re quiet.