Nate Silver says he has mostly removed Kennedy from his model and the impact of that was +0.3% for Trump, so the remaining Kennedy vote was pretty evenly split between Trump/Harris being their second choice. He also says that Kennedy's +0.3 is completely lost in the 1.7% convention bounce that expects will keep growing for a few more days. He said the model is now a bit of a hybrid because he left Kennedy on in the states where Kennedy can't or won't voluntarily leave the ballot, and there are several counties where the ballots have already been printed with name on it, creating quite a statistical analysis mess. From Silver's Free section: Under circumstances like these, sometimes simple is best. So we’ve changed RFK’s status in the model by changing a single cell in one spreadsheet. Before explaining the methodological change in detail, let me show you the impact on our national polling average. Both Trump and Kamala Harris have gained ground versus yesterday’s model run, the last one to include Kennedy. Harris’s polling average has improved from 48.0 percent yesterday to 48.8 percent today (+0.8), while Trump’s has increased from 43.7 to 44.8 (+1.1). There are a couple of essential things to note here. First, yes, Trump has gained slightly more than Harris from the change, although it’s pretty minor, a net gain of 0.3 percentage points.1 And second, we’re seeing the beginnings of a convention bounce for Harris. Even with the Kennedy change, she’s now ahead by 4.0 points in the national polling average versus 2.3 points when the DNC started. Our best guess is that her lead will increase further, especially given that almost none of the polling was done after her strong acceptance speech on Thursday.
RFK, Jr. is a motivated by a single factor, he is butt hurt that the Democrats refused to let him participate in debates with Biden and is motivated almost exclusively by vengeance against the party. The complaint that the nomination of Harris was unfair because she didn't run in primaries and that Biden did rings very shallow given that narrative is supported almost exclusively by supporters of the defeated deranged former president who would never vote for any Democrat.
RCP has Harris +1 in Wisconsin. That is almost virtually a sure win for Trump. He has outperformed in Wisconsin by an average of 6.6 points versus the final polls in the past two elections.
Once again, 2024 is much more like 2008 than 2016 or 2020. Kamala Harris’ Favorability Is Sky High Among Young Voters in Battleground States Analysis of the 2016 election Millennials just didn't love Hillary Clinton the way they loved Barack Obama A Big Part Of Hillary Clinton's Defeat: She Alienated Millennial Voters How one million young people staying home elected Donald Trump From 2008 Youth vote may have been key in Obama's win
According to Robert Barnes who charted Nate Silver's sports handicapping (before Silver was laughed out of Vegas) You.could have made money off of Nate if you bet the opposite of his every recommendation he made. Same with his political predictions. I'm sure Silver is smart in some areas but he's deliberately bad with his.political predictions I suspect hoping that his heavy Dem bias suppresses Repub donations and.turnout. just my opinion. Barnes and Baris talk about this in one of the couple or so videos I posted on this thread. They also mentioned a poll dropped by.538 for being too accurate i.e., for being an outlier. Ratburger lied. Robert Barnes headed the 6rump team on Georgia:
As far as I can tell, from googling him, he is known for making one lucky bet ... guess that makes him a statistician and political predictions expert ...
Whatever source says Trump is winning and tells them what they want to hear is good, any that say otherwise are bad.
One more time, 2024 is much more like 2008 than either 2020 or 2016. Last year a liberal candidate defeated a conservative in a Wisconsin Supreme Court election by a double digit margin in which a major issue was resurrection of a century old statute banning abortion. https://www.npr.org/2023/04/04/1167...on-results-abortion-voting-protasiewicz-kelly Wisconsin Supreme Court Election Results (Published 2023) In case you do not recall the 2008 polling history in Wisconsin.
Carville basically saying the same thing I have been... JAMES CARVILLE: August is a great Democrat month... The idea is to be good in November. I tell Democrats some caution here. most quants say we have to win by three in the popular vote to win in the Electoral College. So when we see a poll that shows us up two, well actually we're one down. The other thing is Trump, traditionally, when he's on the ballot, under-polls. Polls in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2020 showed Biden winning by 7-8 points... Traditionally, he under-polls... I'm just telling you you've got to win by three. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v...ns_trump_traditionally_outperforms_polls.html
interesting site. Lots of stats with a unique model. They claim to have been one of the most accurate.
Another data point Trump leg jumpers can ignore. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4846433-harris-leading-trump-by-7-points-poll/ Vice President Harris holds a 7-point edge over former President Trump nationally in a new poll, marking the latest gain for the Democratic presidential candidate as the general election approaches. A survey from Fairleigh Dickinson University, released last Friday, found Harris leading Trump with 50 percent support to 43 percent nationally, while 7 percent of respondents said they will vote for someone else. Trump and Harris fare equally well with voters from their party, each having 95 percent support from their partisans, pollsters found. Pollsters noted race or gender played a large role in pushing Harris’s lead. When voters are asked to think about race or gender, Harris’s lead grows significantly, while support for her and Trump are virtually tied when they are not made to think about it, they said. With independents who do not lean toward either party, Harris still leads Trump, but by a smaller margin, 38 to 33 percent, the poll found. Harris holds a large lead among self-identified liberals, 87 to 10 percent, along with progressives, 93 to 5 percent, and moderates, 62 to 30 percent.
Yes Barnes did hit a $500,000 bet on the big underdog Trump in 2016. What was funny aboy5 that election.wad that at.least one of the Euro bookmakers was paying off Hillary bettorsbefore the election was called. That's how sure they were that Trump would lose. Barnes has been betting on elections since he was a kid. The only election cyxl3 where he lost money was 2022. The only presidential election he got wrong.was In 2020. Were those losses because Dems used COVID to rig the elections? Barnes handicaps politics but mostly he does sports picks. He puts out 2000 picks a year, mostly on 2 Euro soccer leagues, college and pto football and basketball, and NHL and MLB. When it comes to NFL football, Barnes watches every.play.of every game every week. It m8ght take him less than an hour to do so. . He watches a video.of all.the plays of every game at faster than real time Barnes.and pollster Rich Baris put on the best podcast regarding.pollingand betting when the.political season rolls around. Foi5 ge5s pretty granular. For example they will discuss differences in voting.patterns between the Norwegians and the Swedes in the.sswing tstates. If you watched.one of their podcasts you'd realize why other pollsters like Nate Silver and Nate Cohn tune into their show. Have you noticed how every Too Hot Dem.poster is being dominated by one person Robert Barnes? That is by design. That's the game I've been playing. Imagine if I broke out my full arsenal.of weapons.
The thing about gamblers is they only tell the stories of when they hit it big. How much did he lose betting on Trump in 2020? Betting on the red wave in 2022? How much did Kari Lake cost him? If the guy is now making youtube videos for money, instead of betting and keeping this methods secrete, then you know methods suck and he's down overall ...
While most of the debate in this thread has been civil, unlike most other threads on here, it does feel like Trump supporters are more trying to convince themselves that everything is ok more than anything else. Hard to not agree that Trump has historically under polled in 16 and 20, particularly in rust belt states. However I think this year’s bigger wild card is whether “young people” finally show up and vote their numbers, plus the impact of above average population growth in purple sun belt states. I’m not sure young people who’ve never voted are on the pollsters radar screens. Take Georgia, whose population grows by 100,000 people per year, mostly young people moving to metro Atlanta. Or NC, which is adding larger raw numbers to its population annually, mostly young people moving to Charlotte and Raleigh. With a 60-40 lean to Harris, the impact could be determinative. So I think if young people get motivated to finally have a chance to vote for someone who’s not an aging/aged white Baby Boomer for President for the first time, there’s actually a chance that polls in some states that might under poll the other way for the first time. Now…..will it affect the electoral college? We’ll see. I think Harris wins the popular vote by 10 million votes this year, but with an EC that’s within 30 votes each +/- on either side of 270 for both candidates, just like the past 2 elections.
I see it the same way as far as rust belt polling. But it's worth noting that pollsters will change their methodology when they realize that they're polling is not accurate. That's possibly what happened in 2022 when the Red Wave never materialized. The pollsters had overcompensated for Republican bias. But I think it's all about excitement levels, which pollsters can't really measure. In 2016, there was no excitement for Hillary and she ran a bad campaign. In 2020, Biden " campaign from his basement", and the only excitement was from people who were excited to vote against Trump. Harris's campaign feels different. She is kicking ass on the campaign trail, excitement is through the roof, and it actually seems to be Trump who is suffering from a lack of enthusiasm. So the big question is going to be how that relates to the polls.
