Rate Cut is Coming per Fed Reserve

Lol... you and your friends literally laughed at me when I said the FED was going to cut rates... You and your Leftist friends here said it would be a bad idea to cut rates because you thought the economy was doing great, and we didn't need rate cuts. So, now we see who (ME) was right all along.

 

I think there has been one person on here who has always disputed the September rate cut. Certainly not a "leftist." What you stated was that the Fed was going to have an emergency meeting to cut rates on the day that the market went way down. That, clearly, did not happen.

 

foolish, silly, and no common sense.

 

Rare personal insight.

 

What did he get wrong?

 

If I were you, I would be worried too.

 

That he can't see the forest for the trees.

What do you think he accomplished by posting the definitions?

 

Exactly what we will see if the Feds cut interest rates too soon.

After the PCE on 8/30 and the PPI and CPI by the end of the 2nd week in September, we'll know if the Fed is going to cut. All of the rest going on now is nothing more than cheerleading for rate cuts that aren't currently necessary.

 

This is your standard bearer.

Aug 19, 2019 1:38 PM EDT
Trump calls on Federal Reserve to cut interest rates

Trump said Democrats were trying to “will” the economy to deteriorate ahead of the 2020 election.

Trump administration officials in recent days have sought to calm worries about a potential U.S. recession that were heightened by last week’s steep stock-market decline.

The Fed on July 31 cut its key policy rate for the first time in more than a decade, reducing it by a quarter-point to a range of 2% to 2.25%. It cited a number of “uncertainties” that were threatening the country’s decade-long expansion, from Trump’s trade battles to slowing global growth.

In addition to calling for the Fed to cut rates by a full percentage point, Trump also said the central bank should consider supplying “quantitative easing” as well, the term economists use to describe the Fed’s efforts to restart economic growth over the 2007-2009 recession by buying bonds to lower long-term interest rates.

 

He provided an opportunity for those conflating inflation and high prices to correct their misunderstanding.

What is the forest you believe he missed by focusing on defining the terms so that we are all using the technical terms correctly?

 

What you posted agrees with my position of wait and see on the PCE on August 30 and the PPI and CPI in the first 2 weeks of September, also the next unemployment rate:

July 2019------------August 2024

Core PCE 2.2%------2.6% (June)

Core CPI 2.2%------3.2%
CPI 1.8%------------2.9%

PPI 2.2%------------2.2%

*UR 3.7%-----------4.3%

*Unemployment Rate

In late July 2019, the Fed cut .25% from 2.50% to 2.25%. This was after inflation had peaked at 2.9% and the Feds had raised rates 7 times. Trump was right to be calling for rate cuts as they had been close to zero before the Feds raised 7 times.

Fast forward to August 2024 when Core PCE is .4 higher, Core CPI is 1% higher, CPI is 1.1% higher, PPI is the same for both years, and the Fed has had to battle the highest US inflation in more than 40 years.

The unemployment rate is .6% higher in August 2024 but is still considered to be full employment.

I'm standing by my stance that the US should experience more declines in the indexes before rates are cut. Could that happen in the next index reports? Maybe.

It might not take much rate cutting to reverse inflation right back upwards as I think we are close to a new rates equilibrium. In my lifetime, I have seen much higher rates than these today.

 

What you are missing is I don't care about technicalities, the trees.

 

You spend a lot of time expounding about how there is no need for the Fed to cut rates. (Strangely and conversely, though, you also post in other threads that the economy is not as great as some would assert.)

I'm old enough to remember, though, when your political icon was repeatedly calling for lower -even negative!- interest rates when the economy was doing quite well. Can we assume you were so really really upset about him doing that at the time that you posted about it non-stop on message boards, like it was your full time job?

Or are you just being hypocritical now?

 

you misunderstand what I've been saying.

 

I was trying to get you to understand the distinction between 'inflation' and 'inflation rate', which you clearly didn't understand based on your nonsense statement 'Inflation isn't going down. Only the rate of increase in inflation is coming down'.

 

I remember you being adamant that they would not be cutting rates in September. Please explain how you were wrong.

 

What ET doesn't understand is just looking at rates like UE and inflation are snapshots that don't tell the whole story. Which way the needles are moving is also important. Inflation could be at 2.9% and UE 4.3% in three different time frames, and in one, the FED does nothing, in two, they cut, and in three, they raise rates.

I deal with explaining snapshots don't tell complete stories often. Working in Marketing, I track CPA (Cost Per Acquisition) on several sources. I often have to explain why more of our budget may be going to a source with a higher CPA. Volume is always a concern, but more often than not it's because of the way the needles are moving. And the source with the higher CPA today getting a higher budget is expected to be lower next month.

ET only sees current numbers and compares them to other times we've had similar numbers and bases his opinions off of that. But the thing is, the way inflation has been dropping and UE rising, it's looking like time to cut rates. The FED Chairman agrees.

 

I stand by the statement. The rate of inflation is going down. We are still experiencing inflation on top of inflation on top of inflation.

 

If the rate is cut in September, I will have been wrong for the first time in over a year while you and all the lefties here have been wrong on numerous occasions over the last year.

I posted enough information above to citygator as to why I still don't think there will be a September cut unless more index information comes in to support the rate reduction, see post #92.