Although I know that you're being facetious, a rate cut in September followed by the announcement in October of another cut in November could very well boost the probability of a November election victory by the brown woman over the orange man.
Thanks Fed - pound at its strongest against the dollar since 2022, just as I'm booking a trip to Dallas. You're good eggs!
Just for you BCG: May I remind you all, lefties and righties, that the Fed came out of Jackson Hole 2023 with an outlook that had multiple federal fund rate cuts. In a year, how many of those cuts have happened? Other than the Biden Woketard Administration not getting a year's worth of employment data correct resulting in a .1% increase in unemployment from 4.3% to 4.4%, the parameters are still unchanged since the Fed went into wait and see on the inflation indexes. I'm still in the wait and see camp. The Fed's preferred inflation index the PCE, Core PCE carries more weight with the Fed, comes out on Friday, August 30. This is what has happened over the last 5 months, February through June: Price indexes: Percent change from month one year ago PCE 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 PCE, excluding food and energy 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6 If the Core PCE goes up or remains the same, why would the Fed cut in September? Unemployment numbers even with the historically huge revision in jobs growth is still good although manufacturing has dropped to practically zero growth. In addition, the PPI and the CPI will hit again before the Fed meeting. Austin Goolsby, Chicago Federal Reserve Governor, is a democrat shill economist who has been rooting for rate cuts for months. Other governors may have gone from opposed to on the fence. If you are counting on rate cuts, I suggest you watch the above coming indexes. As we saw after Jackson Hole 2023, what is stated and what occurs can be two different things. I'm selfishly for rate cuts. The folks sitting on the sideline of the housing market will move to take advantage of lower long-term rates which are already happening just talking about rate cuts. In a cutting environment, weakness in housing prices will evaporate which is good for me even though housing prices haven't fallen in my location, all real estate is local. However, the resulting inflation may be the backend mistake of fighting inflation too late and then stopping too early.
Inflation isn't going down. Only the rate of increase in inflation is coming down, no thanks to the Biden Woketard Administration. We're still stuck with the resulting high prices thanks to Bidenomics. The American people aren't stupid. They know they were better off under Trump than Biden/Harris.
Not at all. Good for him, actually. I’m happy with my slice of the pie and don’t care what his net worth his, or how much money he makes off a stock sale. My point, which you know since you understand investing, is that you don’t have to be Ben Graham to see the company is losing money, losing subscribers and has little to no intrinsic value esp now that he is back on Twitter competing with his own platform and its growth prospects are virtually nil. He’ll find that out when his lockout expires and he tries to dump it absent Elon overpaying for it. It’s just math for me.
Dude, the Fed Chairman laid out his views on cooling inflation and the cooling labor markets and said “the time has come for policy to adjust.” He then signed his statements by saying “That is my assessment of events. Your mileage may vary.” Last quote is Fed speak for I don’t give a damn what any of you are looking at right before an election, my decision was based on data. Disagree all you want, not you or your candidate’s decision. Speech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook
How obtuse can you be? You act as if Bideflation didn't take the US to its highest levels of inflation in over 40 years. Prices are up tremendously under Bidenomics. That's inflation. To say inflation is coming down is a misused phrase. The rate of increase in inflation is coming down and still higher than the Feds 2.0% target. Show me any time during the Biden Woketard Administration that prices actually came down. Good luck. Again, the American people aren't stupid. They know what has happened with prices under Biden/Harris which is why the economy is their #1 voting concern in November.
I take what the Fed says with a grain of salt. Yes, inflation has slowed down. But if I had to guess, the Fed sees a worsening situation with employment and are trying to get out in front of it. When you think about it, that has to be it, because their dual mandate is containment of inflation and full employment. I don't think we can say inflation is contained under 2.0% at this stage, per their mandate. So that must mean they are concerned about employment remaining full in the near term. Otherwise, there is no rationale to lower rates, because inflation is still above their mandate as of today.
Dude, Powell did the same thing in 2023. How did that work out? Maybe the rate cuts happen and maybe they don't.
You don’t have to guess. The Fed sees a worsening situation with employment. “The labor market has cooled considerably”. Combine that with “there is good reason to believe that the economy will get back to 2 percent inflation” So we agree on this one. The Fed said they are shifting their primary focus from high inflation to a cooling labor market and used the word “now”.
