War in Ukraine

Ukraine has been blowing up Russia's pontoon bridges as fast as Russia can put them down.

Russia keeps trying to replace the bridges that Ukraine destroys. Ukraine is taking out those, too.

 

ruh roh raggy

Opinion: Another Russian mercenary leader has turned against Putin (msn.com)

A few days ago, Georgy Zakrevsky, another head of a private military company, effectively called on Russians to get rid of the “Great” Putin (his modifier, not mine). When the guys with the guns start making fun of your greatness, it may be time to read the writing on the wall. The 53-year-old Zakrevsky is no liberal and no good guy. He served in the KGB and Soviet army, earned a law degree and got “involved with secret activity, information about which is forbidden.” He then moved on to “independent military consulting” and founded the mercenary outfit Paladin.

Paladin is scary. Its own website describes the group as follows: “A few years ago no one knew of the private military company. Now the whole world knows. Let the dilettantes think we’re killers; their views don’t interest us. People don’t turn to us to defend their pharmacies; they don’t ask for permission to use arms. We don’t need to prove anything.”
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Given Zakrevsky’s past record and current credentials, the last thing one would expect such a cutthroat to do would be to turn against Russia’s cutthroat par excellence, the Great Putin. The pair should be, and presumably once were, natural allies. For someone like Zakrevsky to criticize Putin publicly is thus no small potatoes. Zakrevsky must be mad as hell and, more important, he must know that he’s not the only Russian military man who agrees. And why shouldn’t their veins be throbbing? The Great Putin has come close to destroying Mother Russia.

Here’s Zakrevsky’s diatribe against Putin, in my translation: “Our country is not just on the brink of disaster or already right next to it; our country is already in trouble. In big trouble. Drones are flying all over central Russia, right up to Moscow and St. Petersburg. They even attacked the Kremlin. Our Black Sea fleet is being pushed out. It’s being pushed out as if we were not a great power with a great fleet, but some third-rate country. “Our air force is practically not working because it is also being pushed out. We are standing in the same positions that we took more than two years ago, and partly in those to which we retreated. The population is dying out, becoming impoverished, drinking itself to death: no one cares. All they have time to do is bring in migrants.”

Zakrevsky minces no words in assigning blame for this sad state of affairs: “And all this was done by the so-called ‘president.’ The ‘Great’ Putin.”

 

Relentless, Remorseless

 

Cool time lapse animation of Ukraine’s incursion.

 

This is a few days old, but the side-by-side comparison from the same source. Russia gaining almost as much turf, but in a much more heavily fortified area that's been engaged in an attrition war for 2+ years. Also, for the purposes of "liberating Ukraine", the forestland and villages being occupied by the UAF in Kursk right now serve zero purpose towards that end and the Ukrainians aren't holding the line in the southeast. If Pokrovsk falls, that's going to make it really difficult for Ukraine to re-supply lines in that region. If Kursk falls (and that's a big if), Russia still have no issues with supply lines.

 

CNN explains Putin's incompetence: he's really bad at crisis management, and he's indecisive. While he has delusions of grandeur and sees himself as Putin the Great, his abilities do not back that up very well. Long story short: he's writing checks his body (and mind) can't cash.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/23/world/putin-response-ukraine-kursk-intl/index.html

 

You have to add to that the centralized nature of decision making in a totalitarian state, leading to delays in any kind of response. Absolutely no one will take any kind of initiative. Further, no one wants to tell His Excellency anything His Excellency does not want to hear. So the kinds of indicators that could lead to better decisions never reach Putin's desk until after the truth can longer be hidden.

 

It seems too easy to lump all totalitarian states into one and treat each leader of said regime the same. I say this because I picture Putin as more pragmatic than say, Saddam Hussein. He would rather hear the bad news sooner, rather than later. With a guy like Putin, I bet it would drive him crazy to find out information was being withheld from him. He is a former spy chief, after all. Generally speaking, withholding information from personalities like his is a non-starter. Especially when you have windows and airplanes to worry about.

 

You are attributing characteristics to him that we all (including myself) believed to be true, right up until he started making one dumb strategic error after another. If you have a better explanation for how Ukraine was able to pull off this operation without Russia finding out and preparing, then I'm listening.

And, no, "maybe Putin wanted Ukraine to do it" is not a better explanation. The loss of these conscripts is a political nightmare for him.

 

Russia is afraid to use it's low-accuracy glide bombs in Kursk. Ukraine, however has been using its American high-accuracy glide bombs in Kursk and elsewhere.

Russia is barely using one of its best weapons against Ukrainian forces in Kursk because it's scared to hit itself, war expert says

 

More on Ukraine's use of glide bombs: not only have they worked well in Kursk, but they have also allowed Ukraine to take back some land in Kharkiv.

Ukraine says it used US glide bombs in Russia's Kursk region and has retaken some land in Kharkiv

 

No doubt an intelligence failure by the FSB. Apparently by the CIA as well, if we are to believe them. But intelligence failures happen to the best of us. 9/11... October 7th... WMD...

Ukraine didn't send 15 brigades to the Kursk border at once. They started off with a small convoy. They got that part right, I'll give them that, but I'm not sure it proves Putin doesn't get info as fast as its available.

 

Most likely, Putin gets info quickly, but the severity of the situation is typically downplayed. No one wants to tell a boss who kills as many people as Putin does that a disaster is unfolding, especially when you don't know exact details. Putin was probably told that "a few" Ukrainian soldiers had crossed the border--no big deal. Presumably, there was some hope that the conscripts would take care of the situation.

 

Indeed. There was so much “hope” of it that the Russian government gleefully reported that it had repelled the Ukrainian invasion while the brigades were already miles inside of Russia and advancing. (The Russians had to take those announcements down)

 

RORO. Russia screwed. Losing their last Roll-On, Roll-Off ship means that Russia will not be getting any more fuel and lubricants supplied through Crimea for a while. Residents of Crimea immediately reacted by taking their vehicle to the local gas station for one last fill-up.

Fuel Supplies To Russian Troops, Crimea Strangled By Destruction Of Ship

 

Not surprising at all that the CIA would have missed it. First, because they are primarily concerned with human intelligence. Second, their collection would naturally be focused on Russia, not Ukraine. So if the CIA had no indication of the the Ukrainian operation, it’s because Russia was not acting a country getting ready to stop an invasion. What is more surprising is that our signal intelligence and geospatial intelligence (NSA, GSIA et al) was caught by surprise. But that, too, might reflect a similar problem: We collect against Russia, not Ukraine. If we were not seeing Russian formations heading toward Kursk or hearing chatter between units about needing to move to counter an impending enemy attack, etc, then why would we think something is going on? Oh, and it isn’t that we don’t collect on that area. We do. That was an obvious area from which Russia could have started a new operation into Ukraine. We would very likely have been prepared to warn Ukraine about any enemy activity there. In fact, we may have very well inadvertently provided Ukraine with the intel that generated their decision. It could have been something as simple as, “Don’t worry they don’t have anything in there but a few conscripts. You can focus on the East.”

So that’s our excuse. What’s Russia’s? They collect on Ukraine. They had to have understood that a direct operation against Russia was Ukraine’s most dangerous course of action, even if it was not the most likely. You’re telling me that strategic genius like V. V. Putin, first of His name, didn’t think to hedge against this possibility by having a professional mobile reserve to backstop the conscripts? Hmmm. Maybe he’s a fake strategist, just like he’s a fake PhD, fake judo champ, fake intelligence operator, fake badass (he was a combat dodger in the 1980s while his country was at war), and fakely [sic] of legitimate birth.

 

they sure travelled a long way north up that road and then turned around and came back

 

Can’t get too far from your base of supply or stretch out so far that a small force could cut you off from behind. No doubt they were told to turn around and consolidate.

 

Does anyone think Ukraine thought of this operation on their own? I don’t think the CIA missed anything if not help author the operation. Then again I probably read too much cooky internet garbage despite the NSA claiming ignorance.

 

fight on russian soil, soil not heavily mined, allows for the armor to be effective and not paralyzed by minefields

Ukraine Claims 2-Kilometer Advance in Luhansk After Surprise Attack (msn.com)

Ukrainian forces successfully advanced two kilometers into Russian-controlled territory in the Luhansk region, following a surprise counterattack that inflicted heavy losses on Russian troops. The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian army led the charge according to Digi24, claiming the destruction of dozens of military assets and neutralizing over 300 Russian soldiers, either killed or wounded, near the town of Novovodiane. This area lies at the border between the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions.

According to Oleksandr Borodin, a military spokesperson, the operation, which took place over four days and concluded on August 15, was designed to disrupt the offensive capabilities of Russia's 20th Army.

The operation was kept under wraps for security reasons until now.

"The main task of the operation was to undermine the offensive potential of the 20th Army of the Russian Federation, and that task has now been accomplished," stated Colonel Andriy Biletsky, the brigade commander.