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Official Prediction Thread: Who's Going To Be the Next POTUS?

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by okeechobee, Aug 23, 2024.

Who will win the presidential race in November?

Poll closed Sep 6, 2024.

  1. Donald Trump

    14 vote(s)
    36.8%

  2. Kamala Harris

    24 vote(s)
    63.2%
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  1. Aug 23, 2024 #1
    okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    The poll runs for 14 days.. once you vote, it can't be changed. Make your pick, tell us why.

    I predict Donald J Trump wins. Reasons are many. I will list my main observations as to what led me to this prediction:

    1. Kamala Harris is a fringe left candidate and there has never been a candidate so far left that has ever won the presidency. She rated to the left of Bernie Sanders in the Senate. No matter how "likable" she is, she cannot overcome this in the same way Michael Dukakis could not overcome it and her small advantage in favorability currently (which didn't exist two months ago) isn't enough to make up for this factoid.

    2. Blue wall for Harris is non-existent. A "wall" is supposed to be sturdy, reliable, durable. Trump is still slightly ahead in PA. Kamala leads by 1 or 2 points in WI and MI. That's not a "wall." She can't win without all three states, imo. Looking back at 2016 and 2020, the Dem candidates had substantial leads in these traditionally blue states at this point in the race. IOW, Kamala should be leading by a lot more in these 3 states and she's not. Further, many polls out of PA still show Trump in the lead there.

    3. Harris' small lead in current national polling is without any exposure to interviews, press conferences and/or debates. She has held her platform very close to the vest. Her website doesn't even offer her platform. Once her ideas and beliefs are examined closer, she is going to lose independent votes and perhaps even some blue collar Democratic votes.

    4. She was just two months ago the least popular Vice President in the modern era. Prominent Democrats were discussing replacing her on Biden's ticket. Let that sink in. She wasn't good enough for Biden's ticket two months ago per her own party. Inevitably this will be the mean she reverts to, because it's who she is.

    5. She failed as border czar and her record under Biden doesn't allow her to truly chart a new course like it would if there was a GOP incumbent. Of course, if there was a GOP incumbent currently, Kamala most likely wouldn't be the Dem nominee in the first place, because it was handed to her by the same party who thought she might ought to be replaced two months ago.

    6. Kamala has a big problem with male voters. While one might argue she can make it up with strong support from female voters, it seems more likely that her numbers will fade somewhat with women. I don't see them improving with men, at all. But can Kamala even define for us what a woman is?

    7. Last but not really least, Donald Trump still leads beyond the MOE on the two top issues per voters: the economy and immigration. It's nearly impossible for a presidential candidate to win trailing on the two biggest issues for voters. I'm not even sure that has happened before.
     
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  2. Aug 23, 2024 #2
    wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    I wasnt able to vote for RFK Jr, Professor West or Jill Stein
     
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  3. Aug 23, 2024 #3
    citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Charlotte
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. Aug 23, 2024 #4
    G8tas

    G8tas GC Hall of Fame

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    OP just doomed Trump's chances
     
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  5. Aug 23, 2024 #5
    BigCypressGator1981

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    I picked Kamala Harris because she’s not senile and she hasn’t raped anyone.
     
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  6. Aug 23, 2024 #6
    okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Thank you for your input.
     
  7. Aug 23, 2024 #7
    VAg8r1

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    Although I don't know if he's the same poster the guy who said that he would be attending Matt Bevin's victory party comes immediately to mind.
     
  8. Aug 23, 2024 #8
    VAg8r1

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    Without making a laundry list of reasons and there are many Kamala Harris will be elected based on one overriding reason, enthusiasm and turnout. Trump had it over the Democratic nominees in 2016 and again in 2020 although he lost that election. The last time a Democratic presidential candidate has had as much enthusiastic support has Harris does in this election was Barack Obama in 2008. If the viewership of the RNC in comparison with that for the DNC and attendance at Trump's MAGA rallies over the last month or so compared with attendance in Harris's rallies are any indicators not only is enthusiasm for her way up it seems to be lower for Trump than it was in the past. I would also add that not only does Harris have a much stronger ground game than the Trump campaign his campaign has fewer offices in the swing states than it had in 2016 and 2020. Still going to be a close election but I'm putting my money on Harris.
    Trump goes for unconventional ground game while Harris builds up swing state army (msn.com)
     
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  9. Aug 23, 2024 #9
    WarDamnGator

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    Okee wants so badly to see a poll that shows Trump is still winning. But this is desperation. He misses the good old days of about 5 weeks ago, but to quote Don Henley, “Those days are gone forever, you should just let em go”.
     
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  10. Aug 23, 2024 #10
    BigCypressGator1981

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    I’d like to add that my post really isn’t just wishful thinking. If Biden hadn’t stepped down Trump had it in the bag. Game over. I said so many times on here in the days after that ghoulish debate. Some people are incapable of not projecting their desires into their prognostications.
     
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  11. Aug 23, 2024 #11
    obgator

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    Kamala up 7-2. STOP. THE. COUNT!!
     
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  12. Aug 23, 2024 #12
    NavyGator93

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  13. Aug 23, 2024 #13
    tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

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    I went with Trump purely on the RCP (no-toss-up) electoral map currently. It has him winning.
    Pennsylvania literally decides it.

    My pick is purely based on current polling metrics. Harris gets a bump in the next few days, but if the water just levels back it puts him slightly over the top.
     
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  14. Aug 23, 2024 #14
    okeechobee

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    8 to 3 in favor of Kamala at this point. I admire the bravery.
     
  15. Aug 23, 2024 #15
    BigCypressGator1981

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    [​IMG]
     
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  16. Aug 23, 2024 #16
    wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    Voting in an online poll, it's almost like winning the Presidential Medal of Freedom
     
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  17. Aug 23, 2024 #17
    ursidman

    ursidman VIP Member

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    70+ days out I have no idea. Could be a blowout for either side but most likely will be close and go either way and turn on factors unknown to us right now.
     
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  18. Aug 23, 2024 #18
    obgator

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    I went with Kamala because she’s the sitting VP. My understanding is that the VP does not have to certify the election if their side loses.
     
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  19. Aug 23, 2024 #19
    wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    Well, you will never make it as a pundit with that kind of hedging :)
     
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  20. Aug 23, 2024 #20
    ursidman

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    There is some “scholarship” that supports that premise.
     
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