Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

A couple of polls mostly done during the convention from 538...

 

You have very succinctly explained the Republicans' insidious rationale for maintaining a large majority of poor (and even more so) poorly informed people.

 

That was actually Marx that predicted that. And he seems to have been wrong based on how people ended up grouping based on identity instead. Just look at this forum. A middle class Republican would never align with a middle class Democrat because their 401ks are similar.

 

Heck, I'm not sure that we could even get people to agree on what "middle class" is.

 

The Democrats thought that identity rather than economics would shape the political future. This election is showing that there will be a r3alignmen5 away from the politics of identity going forward.

Blacks used to. Le loyal Republicans. The 1964 Civil Rights Act made blacks loyal Democrats because it was opposed by Goldwater. That type of loyalty lasts only 2-3 generations then it begins to erode. Younger blacks 7nder 50 are starting to shift toward Trump's message that is supportive of the blue collar working class.

 

You walk into the classroom. There are 11 rows. You sit in row 6. You’re middle class. Pretty basic stuff. 12 rows in the classroom? Way more complicated issue.

 

Is it weird how right leaning Real Clear Politics won't show Pennsylvania flipping? Most models flipped Penn. 2 weeks ago. Since the 12th, there have been 4 polling companies and 7 data sets showing Harris winning or tied in Penn posted on 538 ... RCP shows none of those, only the 3 Trump +1 polls since the 12th. 538 has Harris up 1.8% in the poll averages. RCP has Trump hanging on to a 0.2% lead.

RCP:




538:

 

My guess is that RCP weighs all polls equally rather than giving more weight to more recent polls meaning that a poll in which respondents were polled in July is given the same weight as poll taken yesterday. They also apparently rate all pollsters equally meaning that Rasmussen which is notoriously biased in favor of Republican candidates is given the same weight in their model as the NY Times/Siena poll which is rated the most reliable poll by 538.

 

I agree with what you are saying about RCP just doing simple averages, but I'm more pointing out that they are ignoring several polls altogether ... There have been 11 data sets since the 12th, 3 for Trump, 2 tied, 6 for Harris ....but they only recognize 3 Trump polls.

 

I just cant.

 

Harris needs to be up by 3'6% in the popular vote to.win the Electoral College.

 

What are Trump polls?

 

I heard they're very small

 

Where are you getting that from?

Nate Silver ran those stats for Biden ... it looks like about 2% was the breaking point, and that's long been considered the norm. 3.6% would be about a 95% chance of winning. I'd assume these stats apply to Harris.

 

I mean, the three polls that showed Trump winning since August 12th. RCP only includes those 3 polls in their average, and left out the other polls that showed Penn tied or Harris winning. Doing that has given Trump a 0.2% edge to hold on to Penn in their model. Including any of the other polls in their average probably would have flipped their whole model to Harris being ahead. Seems odd, and possibly intentional.

 

Harris vs. Trump: Latest presidential poll indicates small lead is exploding

 

ITS BACK… finally. Gives Harris a 58% chance of winning overall.

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

 

Some others…

The Economists models gives Harris a 60% chance.

Trump v Harris: The Economist’s presidential election prediction model

Dactile’s open source model gives Harris a 56% chance

What is the probability Harris wins? Building a Statistical Model.