Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

These MAGA election betting experts really are geniuses though .. I mean just keep picking Republicans to win ... When they win, you look good, when the lose, say the election was stolen. Boom. 100% accurate predictions per the sheeple.

 

Yep I'm sure the same guy predicted a Trump win in 2020 and then claimed the election was stolen when he was wrong. I'm sure he next predicted a red wave in 2022.

 

RCP betting odds moved it to a push today. 49.3% Trump - 49.6% Harris

I wonder if Trump will take a small lead by Friday morning (end of convention).

 

I know a particular poster on this board that 100% claimed not only a red wave in 2022, but rather a “red tsunami” and then immediately disappeared off the board for over a year after the results came in, lol.

 

Harris is crushing it with young voters…

Up +31% with 18 to 29, and +19% for 29 to 45 in the YouGov poll.

 

I've been following these guys. They've been one of the most accurate for every election since 2020.

Predictions for the 2024 Presidential Elections - Live Forecast — Race to the WH

 

It's because this week was her assumed peak (perhaps accurately so) and Kamala's well behind where Hillary and Biden were polling right before their elections. So if this is her peak, she's looking less appetizing to gamble real money on.

 

Have we seen.peak Kamabla?

 

We should take all data, including Polymarket, and look at it collectively. All this means is that bettors are putting their money on Trump currently, probably likely due to the RFK rumors of dropping out, but are nowhere predictive, especially when we’re still in August. The majority of polls, and many other betting sites, still have Kamala in the lead right now. I don’t see that changing with Trump rambling incoherently literally every day about something he doesn’t like.

 

Trump has been a heavy, heavy electoral college favorite for the last year

 

…. Against Biden… I don’t know if you are caught up on the news, but when the candidate changed, the favorite changed. Pretty much all the election models now favor Harris, except RCP, which isn’t really an election model.

 

Dead heat on betting sites now. Down from Kamala as a slight favorite last week

 

He hasn't been a heavy favorite since Harris took over....unless you only follow election deniers

 

Odds started to change yesterday roughly the time it came out about Kennedy. The red vertical line is noon yesterday.

 

TBH, I expected Kamala's numbers to go higher than they have by now. If she has any correction at all, she's done.

 

For some reason the group that initially pushed polls on us never talk about polls anymore. They've now moved to talking about one specific betting market and some MAGA betting guy.

 

I think it's the battleground polling. You can see the gap starting to close last Friday. On Monday, there were three polls that posted in PA showing Trump +1. Nobody knows for sure what will happen with Kennedy's vote and if he will drop out. It's mostly speculation. The polling coming out of PA is a problem for Cackles.

 

First poll of ME-2 that I have seen. This is interesting, as Trump has won ME-2 each of the past two cycles, despite it being represented by a Moderate Democrat since the 2018 election. Maine and Nebraska split their electoral votes (2 to statewide winners and 1 to the winner of each Congressional District- the two swing districts are ME-2 and NE-2).

 

thats one area conventions and “enthusiasm” targets. Getting voters to vote. and Dems especially need that age bracket.