Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Maybe the ones that are left … but so far the trend line for Harris’s gains and Kennedy’s decline since she entered the race are mirror images… it seems like a lot of former Biden voters left for Kennedy, then came back for Harris.

 

She can't break the ice in Pennsylvania. Last three polls released there this week have Trump +1. She is not going to win this without PA.

 

538 has Harris +1.3 in PA. And with polls usually having a margin of error of 3%, PA is a true toss-up right now. And any poll with either candidate +1 means the state is a toss-up right now.

 

Perspective is everything. Trump is ahead today versus where he was on Election Day 2016. And look at the polling on Election Day 2020. Biden +7 and he barely won. This is likely figuring into the casino odds as well.

 

I hope you're right but the Venn diagram of RFK weirdos and Trump weirdos seems like a big overlap.

 

Right now RCP has Kamala Harris +1.5 nationally. Considering RCP overstated for the Dems last two elections, I think they're pretty reliable. +1.5 points nationally doesn't win the EV for Harris. Not even close.

 

That doesn't check out ...

 

You're definitely wrong. The polls of undercounted Democrats in every election since 2018. In fact they've under counted Democrats even in special elections this year

 

I love perspective. Kamala's Pennsylvania problem is real. According to RCP, President Trump still has a slight +0.2 edge in PA. RCP had Hillary +9 in August 2016 in PA. RCP had Biden +6 in August 2020 in PA. Kamala Harris is not going to win PA. Which really makes you wonder why she picked a schmuck like Tim Walz when she could have picked Gov. Shapiro. Not sure it would have mattered. Trump is in a much better position in PA than he was in the past two elections. Kamala can't win this if she doesn't carry PA.

 

She has almost an identical problem in Wisconsin.

 

Your new nickname is Diamond In the Rough

 

For perspective ... 538, Nate Silver, Dactile, Race to the White House, The economist, and WaPo's models have Harris slightly ahead in Pennsylvannia ...

 

So it looks like the person who has been gaining for 6 weeks and who will get a convention bump is only about three points away from locking up the election. Nice analysis

 

Cackles

 

So did Real Clear Politics… https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...ctions_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

 

Exactly my thought. The appeal of either one is a head scratcher.

 

More Robert Barnes and Rich Baris from Monday, August 19, on "What are the Odds." Pollstets like Nate Cohn (NYT) and political consultants who watch the show are stealing content and pretending that the Barnes/Baris analysis is something they figured out. They are now admitting the current polls showing Harris leading may be historically wrong because of RESPONSE BIAS. Barnes and Baris were the first to point this out, RIGHT my little donkeys? Listen to the podcast and learn how the Democrats will once again engage in large scale mail-in ballot.fraud. And much more

 

State Donald Trump Won Twice Now a 'Toss-Up': New Election Forecast (msn.com)

 

Lol, stopped reading at “election mafia deception.” Cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs.