These predictions comes immediately to mind. Dick Morris: Romney will win in a 'landslide' - Fox News Romney Will Win Decisively This is an article from 2020 in which Baris predicted a Trump victory based on "enthusiasm". How Trump's 'enthusiasm factor' could lead to another surprise win
Republicans always think their policies and stances are popular for some reason even though they never win the popular vote. Lol.
Baris was the most accurate pollster 2014-2024 per political bettor Robert Barnes. The betting markets will move toward Yrump soon, especially Polymarket, where big smart money is about to move in. The polls that showed a big shift to Kamala were an illusion. Democrats were glecstatic that B8den was off the ticket and were more eager to take pollsters questions. The Pubs were the upposite. This. Is called response bias. Nate Silver and Nate Cohn know what r3sponse bias is but t9 my knowledge aren't talking about it because they want to build momentum for Kamabla. The 2 Nate's are frauds.
I believe Baris has said that Romney was never leading Obama. Romney got a "response bias" bump after the RNC and supposedly led Obama by 4 points, but as Baris said at the time, Obama was ahead. IMO Trump did win in 2020. When a large segment of voters thinking Trump was Hitler why wouldn't they cheat to keep a fascist out of the White House?
[QUOTE="vegasfox, post: 16722499, member: IMO Trump did win in 2020. When a large segment of voters thinking Trump was Hitler why wouldn't they cheat to keep a fascist out of the White House?[/QUOTE] Trump did not win, but keep indulging in your fever dream. Good old-fashioned voting is how Biden won, because millions of voters thought (and still think) Trump is an ABSOLUTE JERK.
Trump can still win if one or more of the following happen, Harris does poorly at a press conference or a one-on-one interview, she has a surprisingly poor performance at one or both of the debates and Trump runs a disciplined campaign and stays on message. The chances of the first two while not out of the questions aren't that great, the probability of the latter is almost nil with Trump virtually certain to go off unhinged possibly at one or both of the debates and virtually certainly at his MAGA rallies and press conferences with his usual complaints about crowd size, nonexistent election fraud, birds being killed by "windmills", maybe a mention of his friend the late great Hannibal Lecter and likely referring to Harris by one or more juvenile nicknames.
We know after 8 years of dealing with this joker by now that there is absolutely zero percent chance Trump stays disciplined, lol. The guy is routinely his own worst enemy and yet MAGA can’t figure out how he loses - because the majority of America doesn’t want an undisciplined toddler running the country. Guy is an embarrassment.
The way I read the quotes from Baris, he was saying that the polls were underestimating the effect that enthusiasm would have on turnout and that higher turnout among Trump cultists (my term not his) would offset Biden's apparent lead in the polls not unlike 2016 in which the national polls predicted a Clinton victory. Although you probably disagree Clinton had more baggage than Harris (the email server and Benghazi coming immediately to mind) and the release of the letter from Comey stating that her emails were found on laptop computer shared by Huma Abedin and Anthony Weiner around 10 days before the election could have been the difference.
I would also add that Trump in his current state is more unhinged and more lacking in self-control than he was in the later months of the 2016 campaign when he was relatively disciplined at least for him for a couple of weeks. Quiet for once: Trump restraint demonstrates new discipline – The Denver Post
yep, good point. In 2016 towards the end, he seemed to actually listen to his team instead of being crazy up to election night. Supposedly for this campaign he has a better team with Chris LaCivita and Caroline Wiles at the helm.
The problem for Trump's campaign is Trump himself. He undoubtedly thinks that he knows more about running a campaign than LaCivita and Wiles and doesn't take their advice. Apparently some of Trump's supporters in the right-wing blogosphere think that Trump should fire LaCivita and Wiles because they're not "letting Trump be Trump".
RCP has flipped Arizona and Pennsylvania back to the Trump column. He now has 287 EV based on their average of polls. Harris fans best hope this isn't her peak. Trump closes in down the stretch. hint: I think this is her peak.
They already edged back towards Trump a smidge today for the first time in a long time. She is known for peaking early and he's known for erasing leads down the stretch. I no longer gamble, but if I did, I would get in here.
The Dems thought Trump won too. That's why they fought so hard to prevent audits with signature verifications.
Seems dumb to lay your faith and cash on the words of Trump fan boy "betting experts" if you believe that Democrats can steal elections without leaving even a tiny shred of evidence behind.
