War in Ukraine

Russia is facing a collapse of railroad systems in regions bordering Ukraine and Belarus after losing hundreds of square miles of territory.


This may have been the major objective, disruption of logistics

 

Oh, so a Ukrainian feint?

 

In Jake Broe’s video he mentions that the Chechens and conscripts taken prisoner by Ukraine in this incursion were of more value to Russia than its primo professional fighters taken prisoner elsewhere who Russia would not want back. Seems counterintuitive to me - why would this be the case?

 

I would ask you to look up the definition of a feint. Words mean things. Whatever Ukraine is doing, it is not a feint.

 

Because of the domestic turmoil it could cause Russia. Losing conscripts, which are not supposed to be part of this “special military operation,” is a big deal to Russia.

 

Chechens seem to have the ability to stand up to Moscow if they chose to do so and they seem very loyal to their own tribe. If they believe that Putin sacrificed more of them for no reason, that may trigger an internal rebellion which is the most likely way, besides an oligarch taking him out, of unseating Putin and ending the war. They actually would seem to just need one major area to go full rebellion and the rest may follow.

 

Internet! But, yes I fully understand. I just hope the folks in Kursk are texting or calling others outside of the oblask and giving their version of things.
I'm sure the kremlin will supress the info. as much as possible, but it will leak out, just not on the "national" news.

 

Listning to "Ukraine Matters" among others, and the reasoning for this invasion, which of course is not official, is that, holding ground in Kursk is not the point.
The issue is to show the kremlin that Ukraine can and will fight Russia in other ways rather than a slugfest of trench attrition, where massing Russian Troops,
(cannon fodder) massed artillery and Glide Bombs changes what has proven to be a slow, high casualty, yet painfully successful, Russian strategy. Ukraine cannot win this way.

As you say, creating a bulge and holding it at any cost (the old Hitler, do not yield one inch of ground), is the height of stupidity, especially in todays
military realities. Ukraine needs to develop fighting scenerios of movement, not WW1 style trench warfare.

While this has not yet proven out and Ukraine is tight lipped on the subject, this seems realistic to me. I suspect the Ukrainian General in charge has convinced Zelenski that they must change tactics or they will eventually get over-run / over-whelmed.

Obviously easy to type about but much harder to implement on the modern battlefield, given drones, spy's, satellites and modern reconnissance capabilities.

The other issue, which MAY come into play, and about which I posted earlier, is it seems Ukrainian soldiers are under instructions to treat non-combatants with dignity and respect, even calling for humanitarian resources to assist those in need. While I am not a fool and collateral damage almost assuradly will happen, I think, if true this is brilliant.

Ukraine is not fighting a war of annihilation against Russia, they are fighting to prevent annihilation. I.M.O., the best chance Ukraine has at success and survival is
for the Russian public to turn against Putin. At least that is what I think gives them the best chance to survive.

Lets face it, despite all the Russian bumbling and stumbling, it's still David vs Goliath. Ukraine cannot hold out forever unless NATO forces get involved in some active way on the ground, and in the very least in logistical support, and taking the gloves off with weapons use. (IMO) This of course leads to the scary proposition of escalation.

 

Report back when much of the 57K residents have left for safety in Charlotte.

 

YES

 

IMO the key to the invasion is when to recognize when the Ukrainian resouce allocation has acheived it's (maximum) positive affect / and then to withdraw to
the most defensable positions in order to cause the ski's maximum damage with their insane cannon fodder attacks.

 

I have to assume until we see things turn Ukraine's way on the southeast front, but everything I've seen in the past couple of weeks indicates that front is collapsing slowly on Ukraine. The push towards Pokrovsk isn't Russian propaganda. In fact, city leaders have just told their people to speed up their evacuation:

Ukrainian officials urge civilians to evacuate Pokrovsk as Russian troops close in

Pokrovsk officials said in a Telegram post that Russian troops are “advancing at a fast pace. With every passing day there is less and less time to collect personal belongings and leave for safer regions.”

“Since the Kursk operation, I haven’t noticed any changes. The Russians have the same tactics of infantry assaults: They are moving, advancing,” said Goose, who spoke only using his call sign, in keeping with Ukrainian military rules. He noted that with their powerful aerial bombs, Russia was destroying any hope Ukrainians have of holding the territory. “Russians are destroying and moving, destroying and moving,” he said.

 

I don't know if comms are back up, but there was a Ukranian cyberattack in conjuction with troops entering Kursk to prevent folks in the area from spilling the beans.

 

Yes, I was aware of that, but surely that is a temporary state of affairs. If nothing else, Western media reports will filter in.

 

BTW, I heard that on Task & Purpose (hosted by average infantryman Chris Cappy). I bring that up because we've previously agreed that it's a great YouTube channel.

 

I don’t drive a tank.

 

Love me some Kappy! Awesome podcast.

 

If the reports of large scale gains by the Russians in the Donetsk region today on the way to Pokrovsk are true, yikes. Ukrainian troops complaining that the UAF sent their best defensive units to Kursk. Confirmed: Kyiv have ordered evacuations in Pokrovsk. Very strategic city about to fall to the Russians.

 

Please defined what you consider "large scale"?