Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Trump needs to go to jail and eat a loaf of shit. Really looking fwd to being done with his BS.

 

This may have already been posted. Not good news for the former president.
Kamala Harris Just Took Lead Over Trump in 5th Swing State: Polling Average (msn.com)

 

Six if you go by Nate Silver ... Penn, Wisc, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, and Virginia have all shifted from Trump to Harris...

She's also turned Minnesota from a <1% "toss up" race to an 8% comfortable lead, and closed the 5 or 6% gaps in NC and Georgia to 1/2 a percent and gaining.

 

+6 for Harris nationally … Trump falls to just +1 with men in this poll. Harris is +13 with women. Unrated pollster on 538.

She’s an awesome candidate.

Harris Leads Trump by 6 Points Nationally Before Democratic National Convention — Outward Intelligence

 

I know I’ve said this a million times but the further this goes on, the more unhinged Trump becomes and the more popular Harris becomes. I honestly see this being a total blowout come November.

 

Interesting insight from lead pollster at Rasmussen:

 

Once again is that the same Rasmussen that was forecasting a red wave in 2022 or a Mitt Romney victory in 2012?

 

Although over the last month the race changed drastically in favor for the dems, the vibe has become overly optimistic for Harris. Currently the race is just slightly better than a coin-flip in her favor.

 

Lol they are worse than Trafalgar

 

It really is. As it stands now, it's basically Pennsylvania that decides the race. And Penn is so close some poll average services have either candidate winning by one or two percent ... so it's in the margin of error ... crazy close race at this point.

 

538 has Rasmussen tied for 277 in its pollster ratings based on a review of 792 polls. Trafalgar is rated at 273 based on a review of 134 polls.
Pollster Ratings

 

Actually, 538 dropped Rasmussen from it's averages and doesn't rate them anymore at all. It's because in 2022 they found that Rassmussen was conspiring with the right wing media, exchanging coverage of their polls for polling services, possibly intentionally calling the same people if they liked their past answers, and Rassmussen tried to back Kari Lake's claim that her election was stolen ...

538 drops Rasmussen Reports from its analysis : r/fivethirtyeight (reddit.com)

 

Nate Silver flipped North Carolina to Harris, and Flipped Nevada back to Trump. That puts her at 297 EC. NC gives her a path to victory that doesn't involve Penn ... she could lose Penn and still win by holding NC and Arizona.

 

RPC has Pennsylvania tied at 47.9% each, but are still awarding the EC votes to Trump. Not sure why.

They could also show it as 281-257 Harris ...

 

NYT's swing state poll results ... still a long way to go, but better than 3 weeks ago...

 

First WaPo-ABC national poll showing Harris ahead of Trump outside of the margin of error
Kamala Harris holds slight national lead over Trump

Maybe even more significant than the bottom line numbers are these findings:

One sign of how the shift from Biden to Harris has affected voters’ attitudes is on the question of how satisfied people are with the choice of Harris vs. Trump. In July, when the contest was still Biden vs. Trump, 28 percent of voters overall said they were satisfied with the choice. Today, 44 percent say they are satisfied with the choice of Harris or Trump.

The biggest shift in sentiment has come among Democrats. Last month, 20 percent of Democrats said they were satisfied with the choice of Biden vs. Trump. Now, with Harris as the party’s nominee, 60 percent of Democrats express satisfaction with the current matchup. A 62 percent majority of Harris voters say they support her “strongly,” compared with 34 percent of those who supported Biden last month.

The Post-ABC-Ipsos poll shows her margin over Trump among voters under age 40 at 25 percentage points, compared with Biden’s seven-point advantage in July. She also has improved over Biden among independents, who support her by a margin of eight points compared with the two-point margin for Trump last month. That change was concentrated among Democratic-leaning independents, who shifted from 77 percent supporting Biden after the first debate to 92 percent for Harris in the new poll.​

Turnout was the difference in 2016. An analysis of the election results indicated that if turnout among younger voters and minority voters was the same in 2016 as it was in 2012 Hillary Clinton would have been elected. Since Harris became the defacto Democratic nominee enthusiasm for her compared with Biden has increased significantly among those demographics especially among younger voters.

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The only way Trump loses is if he dies. (5% chance).

 

Who is Rich Baris and why should anyone care what some rando right winger has to say? Legitimate polls and betting sites have Harris ahead by a good amount right now, lol.

 

Polymarket has it back to 50/50. Going to be an interesting finish.