You are right, though, I am feeling optimistic. Not that I think the race in the bag, but just happy it is a race again.
the optimism is refreshing. And what is really nice is seeing younger voters finally get excited and interested. Geriatric presidential candidates is depressing and unmotivating. Even to geriatric voters.
Good ol' Faux News. Must have been a boring uneventful month, because Fox New's poll show Trump with a 1 point lead, same as it was before Biden dropped out. Yeah, right. https://thehill.com/homenews/4828597-donald-trump-leads-kamala-harris-nationally-one-point-poll/
I noticed that the headline focuses on a head-to-head, but the numbers changed once you add in the third party candidates
I’ve been saying for months. People didn’t magically forget what a POS Trump is. And if they did, the DNC has plenty of video, and plenty of money to remind them. Biden was in such poor shape that he was dragging the whole party down. Harris just needs to play the ‘handsome guy’s approach to getting laid’. Smile, don’t say anything stupid, and you are home free.
If Barnes may be the best political bettor in the US. if not the world. Barnes is an excellent sports handicapper Barnes may be the top constitutional law thinker in the US Barnes is a great thinker in the area of civil rights and tax law Barnes is a lawyer for the underdog and I think most of his cases are pro bono. Amos Miller, Covington.kids, Kyle Rittenhouse, Brook Jackson VS Pfizer...Barnes takes on cases 5hat can have national significance. When Josh Shapiro's gov't illegally threw 2 Amish men in prison without charging them with anything Barnes came to their defense I think Barnes was the first to say Jack Smith was illegally appointed Barnes made the best case that Yrump should receive broad immunity VS the laefare Democrats waged against him Barnes has a good legal strategy to counter Democrat lawfare. Barnes likely got JD Vance picked for VP. Barnes 6alked with JD for 90 minutes before he went to the senate floor and voted against supporting the Ukrsine war Barnes said on J6 that the so called insurrection was likely an inside job Barnes warned against Trump. Selecting Wray, Hassel, Pompeo Bolton, Barry. Numerous federal judges and Amy Coney Barrett. Right on all Barnes is one of the top leaders of the populist movement sweeping the world Barnes and Rich Baris advised Trump to fire his campaign staff. It looks like these grifters might go Barnes understands what is going on in every important congressional district in Smerica Barnes advised Trumo's lawyers in the 4 legal cases he was involved Barnes is a foreign policy expert. On The Duran podcast (#1 foreign policy podcasr in the world) he is introduced as "The Great Robert Barnes."
The only polls that show a trump advantage were sponsored by Fox News and the Daily Mail. Does the polling process bias toward the sponsor? If so, how?
Nate silver and 538 calculate the misses between past polls and actual results, to weigh polls in their averages. I'm not sure if they actually adjust for bias, or just give those polls a lower weight so they don't affect the results as much.
Barnes is brilliant and his analysis is usually spot on I like to listen to the smartest people, people with integrity. As an authoritarian leftist with little respect for our constitution you probably don't get people like me. I don't respect 90% of Republicansl and 99% of Democrat politiciabs. I think k you're projecting, BTW. Who do you listen to that isn't a artisan hack"? thinking.
Sorry, I was ambiguous. What I meant was does a polling company like J. L. Partners bias the polling process to meet the desired objectives of the sponsor (e.g. Daily Mail)? Even in 2020 I noticed polls sponsored by right wing organizations skewed red (and vice versa) compared to the independent pollsters. Trump leads Harris by two points in Daily Mail poll... as voters reveal their biggest hesitation about Kamala | Daily Mail Online
I see, I don't know the answer to that, but I suspect the politically leaning sponsors have their "go to" polling companies that they know are skewing the results ... On both sides. The most favorable Democrat polls are often blue sponsors, too. Which is why I trust the poll aggregators more than single polls.
What is the purpose of biased polls? I would think voters would be more motivated to pull the lever for their candidate if they thought it was close or they were losing.
I could see it going both ways... Maybe boosting the base's morale by showing your teaming is winning. In the end, for Fox News and Daily Mail, it's probably about getting clicks from the kind of people their advertisers want.
Emerson checked in today with Harris +5 in both head to head and a 5-way... same as the Activote poll from yesterday. Emerson is a top 10 pollster on 538’s ratings.
The interesting thing is that in 6 of the 10 polls listed on the site which make up this composite average, Trump is probably your winner if those polls come to fruition. Anything that shows Harris with a 2 point lead nationally or lower probably translates to Trump winning the electoral college.
