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Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by rivergator, Jul 24, 2024.

  1. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    Agreed. With Harris rising in the polls, it isn't a case of Trump losing support. It's a case of Harris gaining support of the prior "double haters" who didn't want to vote for Trump nor Biden, or picking off support from RFK Jr.. These are the people who are going to decide the swing states, and every time Trump says something batshit crazy, the more people who are undecided move away from him.
     
  2. obgator

    obgator GC Hall of Fame

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    I don’t disagree - just commenting on how the media gives him hours of “free” coverage once he makes those crazy statements.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  3. gtr2x

    gtr2x GC Hall of Fame

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    Yep, all that free coverage was a major factor in his beating Hillary. All that trash talking and bombast made for good ratings i guess.
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2024
    • Agree Agree x 1
  4. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Charlotte
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  5. vegasfox

    vegasfox GC Hall of Fame

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    I wouldn't trust 538 to rate anything. Nate Silver (no longer with 538) and Nate Cohn are frauds.Robert Barnes and Rich Baris ripped into Silver and Cohn yesterday
     
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  6. gtr2x

    gtr2x GC Hall of Fame

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    Agree on Fla. Have no faith Harris can win the state, but it would be joyous if somehow this surge could help retire another fraudster, Rick Scott.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  7. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    I would love to see Rick Scott go down although I wouldn't bet on it. When he was CEO of Columbia HCA the company was assessed the largest fine for Medicare fraud in the history of the program. Scott has apparently borrowed a page of the book of the Orange God and is claiming that he and the company were the victim of political persecution although the fine was assessed well over a decade before Scott got into politics. When he was governor he also tried to mandate drug testing of all welfare recipients while coincidentally his wife was a major shareholder in a company that specialized in drug testing.
     
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  8. G8tas

    G8tas GC Hall of Fame

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    You sure do push that guy a lot. I don't know anything about him but if I were to guess he probably thinks the 2020 election was stolen and always talks about how the GOP always has the lead in elections despite what everyone else says. He probably also predicted the red wave in 2022
     
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  9. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Cool.
     
  10. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    If it's Trafalgar you are talking about, yes,.they predicted the red wave in 2022. IIRC, there polling was off and favored Republicans by an average of 7-8%, including misses like saying Whitmor would lose (she won by 11%)...
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  11. GatorRade

    GatorRade Rad Scientist

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    The question of whether Baris & Barnes are more trustworthy than Silver & Cohn cannot be answered by appealing to Baris & Barnes without engaging in circular logic. To me, prediction markets are the best option we have. If Baris & Barnes are so sure the prediction markets are wrong, they stand to do a lot better by playing the market than criticizing it.
     
  12. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    • Informative Informative x 3
  13. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Last edited: Aug 14, 2024
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  14. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

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    Bottom of a pint glass
    Harris is now favored on the betting
    sites
     
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  15. BigCypressGator1981

    BigCypressGator1981 GC Hall of Fame

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    she has been for about a week now. Trump needs to hope he can make something happen with the debates or he’s screwed.
     
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  16. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Update on the Modeling sites:

    The Dactile model I posted about earlier has Harris at a 56% chance of winning, which is what I'm hearing Nate Silver also has (I don't have access to his subscription data, just the free stuff). Dactile has Harris holding the blue wall but has not flipped Nevada or Arizona. Silver's free site has flipped Az and Nev to Harris, plus the blue wall, plus has Georgia and NC down to about 1/2 percent. Harris has improved her odds of winning by about 15% in 2.5 weeks.

    If nothing else, Harris is going to force Trump to spend some money in Georgia and North Carolina.

    538 still hasn't accepted that Harris will be the nominee, their site still says they'll post a new model once a democrat candidate is selected... maybe after the convention ... LOL.

    Real Clear Politics has Pennsylvania 0.2% from flipping, which would give her the lead on that site, and they still have some old polls in their average.

    upload_2024-8-14_19-40-5.png
     
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  17. BigCypressGator1981

    BigCypressGator1981 GC Hall of Fame

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    well I wouldn’t trust you to pass the Turing test so we’re all good.
     
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  18. WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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  19. BigCypressGator1981

    BigCypressGator1981 GC Hall of Fame

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    Andy won’t believe until it happens. We feel you brother. No taking our eye off the ball.
     
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