Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Agreed. With Harris rising in the polls, it isn't a case of Trump losing support. It's a case of Harris gaining support of the prior "double haters" who didn't want to vote for Trump nor Biden, or picking off support from RFK Jr.. These are the people who are going to decide the swing states, and every time Trump says something batshit crazy, the more people who are undecided move away from him.

 

I don’t disagree - just commenting on how the media gives him hours of “free” coverage once he makes those crazy statements.

 

Yep, all that free coverage was a major factor in his beating Hillary. All that trash talking and bombast made for good ratings i guess.

 

Harris ahead in all swing states and now North Carolina. Also tied in GA.

Latest Polls 2024 | RealClearPolling

 

I wouldn't trust 538 to rate anything. Nate Silver (no longer with 538) and Nate Cohn are frauds.Robert Barnes and Rich Baris ripped into Silver and Cohn yesterday

 

Agree on Fla. Have no faith Harris can win the state, but it would be joyous if somehow this surge could help retire another fraudster, Rick Scott.

 

I would love to see Rick Scott go down although I wouldn't bet on it. When he was CEO of Columbia HCA the company was assessed the largest fine for Medicare fraud in the history of the program. Scott has apparently borrowed a page of the book of the Orange God and is claiming that he and the company were the victim of political persecution although the fine was assessed well over a decade before Scott got into politics. When he was governor he also tried to mandate drug testing of all welfare recipients while coincidentally his wife was a major shareholder in a company that specialized in drug testing.

 

You sure do push that guy a lot. I don't know anything about him but if I were to guess he probably thinks the 2020 election was stolen and always talks about how the GOP always has the lead in elections despite what everyone else says. He probably also predicted the red wave in 2022

 

Cool.

 

If it's Trafalgar you are talking about, yes,.they predicted the red wave in 2022. IIRC, there polling was off and favored Republicans by an average of 7-8%, including misses like saying Whitmor would lose (she won by 11%)...

 

The question of whether Baris & Barnes are more trustworthy than Silver & Cohn cannot be answered by appealing to Baris & Barnes without engaging in circular logic. To me, prediction markets are the best option we have. If Baris & Barnes are so sure the prediction markets are wrong, they stand to do a lot better by playing the market than criticizing it.

 

New Quinnipiac poll has Penn +3 for Harris.

Pennsylvania 2024: Harris Has Slight Edge Over Trump In Tight Race, Gets Boost From Women, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Senate Race: Casey Up 8 Points Over McCormick | Quinnipiac University Poll

 

Here's an article explaining much of Harris' momentum is from gaining votes from the undecided "double hater" population. The percentage of double haters has been cut in half since Biden stepped out and Harris stepped in. And most of these voters are not in Harris' camp. With still a sizable 7% double hater population, there's still a good chunk of undecideds out there. Enough to swing the vote one way or another is several swing states.

 

Harris +5 in Activote National poll.

Harris Leaps Ahead of Trump – ActiVote

Nate Silver estimates a 5% win in the National vote would be a 98% to 99.8% chance of winning the EC.

 

Harris is now favored on the betting
sites

 

she has been for about a week now. Trump needs to hope he can make something happen with the debates or he’s screwed.

 

Update on the Modeling sites:

The Dactile model I posted about earlier has Harris at a 56% chance of winning, which is what I'm hearing Nate Silver also has (I don't have access to his subscription data, just the free stuff). Dactile has Harris holding the blue wall but has not flipped Nevada or Arizona. Silver's free site has flipped Az and Nev to Harris, plus the blue wall, plus has Georgia and NC down to about 1/2 percent. Harris has improved her odds of winning by about 15% in 2.5 weeks.

If nothing else, Harris is going to force Trump to spend some money in Georgia and North Carolina.

538 still hasn't accepted that Harris will be the nominee, their site still says they'll post a new model once a democrat candidate is selected... maybe after the convention ... LOL.

Real Clear Politics has Pennsylvania 0.2% from flipping, which would give her the lead on that site, and they still have some old polls in their average.

 

well I wouldn’t trust you to pass the Turing test so we’re all good.

 

I'll put this here ... says that Trump has lost about 13% with his most important demographic since Harris joined the race ... his support from the white working class has dropped from +26% to +13%. It's a sea change shift we are seeing.

Donald Trump's Support Among White Working Class Has 'Shrunk Significantly' (msn.com)

 

Andy won’t believe until it happens. We feel you brother. No taking our eye off the ball.