Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

2016 Trump was unknown. Many people didn't like Hillary. The result was many Obama voters either staying home or voting third party. 2020 everybody knew who Trump was. And the independents didn't want another four more years. They came out in droves and voted against Trump as much as they voted for Biden.

2024, the issue with Biden was many of these same people were double haters of both Trump and Biden. Much of it having to do with Biden's age. 2024 was setting up to be repeat of 2016, with many potential D voters either staying home and/or voting third party. But Harris stepped in and many of these double haters are currently firmly in Harris' camp.

We see this especially in the younger generation. Biden was trailing Trump in many of the polls looking at the under 30 crows. Harris has flipped this script as well. Especially in swing states. Harris has the momentum, energy, and is doing a great job reaching Millenials where they are at, including place like Tik Tok. We're seeing the results in the current polls.

 

Trafalgar is an outlier because it is very accurate. Dem leaning pollsters inflate Dem numbers to increase Dem fundraising and decrease donations to Rep I b candidates. Then right before the election they put out polls showing a much closer race (they do this to maintain their credibility as posters, assuming it was a close race all along) . I believe this is what the chart is showing below

 

Trafalgar ranks 273 out of the 277 pollsters 538 has rating for ...

 

A tale as old as time: whichever side's candidate is losing clings to outlier, partisan polls and concocts various reasons why the polls are actually wrong. Not exclusive to either side.

Maybe you'd rather be Harris right now, but if you look at Nate Silver's latest forecast it's something like 55-45, which is basically a coinflip. Nobody should feel either too confident or that their candidate has no chance.

 

And NY Times/Siena is rated first.

 

Polls don't really factor in the impact of the electoral college, which will be far closer than the popular vote. I expect Harris to generate massive turnout and win the general by 10-12 million votes. But that doesn't mean she will be president.

 

Another article, this time focusing on Texas, about how Gen Z voters are getting enthusiastic behind Harris. This group generally votes at between 40% to 45% of the time. They were also a very large block of the "double haters." Many are still a little hesitant about Harris, but she's at least fishing in the pond where these Gen Z voters reside, and getting them excited to vote. If, and it's a big if, Harris can get these voters to come out in larger numbers, it could sway the vote in her favor. Especially swing states with a higher percentage of Gen Z voters like Arizona.

 

I agree although just looking at the polls for the swing states she's in the lead in most of the same polls in which Biden was trailing and in those states where she is behind the margin is much closer than it was when Biden was the Democrats presumptive nominee. While it's still too early for polls to be accurately predictive the trend is not Trump's friend. I would also note that at least now based on turnout at her rallies there hasn't been as much enthusiasm for a Democratic presidential candidate since Obama's 2008 campaign. Again Trump outperformed the polls in both 2016 and 2020 when there were long lines of supporters waiting to say him perform at his MAGA rallies. There is the same type enthusiasm for Harris now. There wasn't that enthusiasm for Clinton in 2016 and as a result of the Covid pandemic Biden ran a stealth campaign in 2020.

 

That poll is a beauty and should be read through the link at the bottom. After the main question I added a few of the interesting ones.






https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/65fc824cf835683ce2d3549b/66ba4069b73a13894a56414d_Independent Center - Battleground States Poll 2024.pdf

 

She is not going to win the popular by 10 million votes, but she does have an electoral college problem, as Trump has 251 EV on lock if we give him North Carolina and Georgia, which seems reasonable. A California radical is not going to win a close election in the South. Arizona figures to be problematic for Kamala as well, as it has trended GOP the past 4 years and her weakness on immigration looms. So there's 262 EV that will almost assuredly go to Trump. For Kamala to win, she has to run the table in Wisc, Mich and PA. That appears to be where the election will be won or lost. However, I do expect there to be a cooling off period for Harris. She cannot hide who she is forever.

 

Where do you get AZ trending R the last four years? 4 years ago, we elected a a D Senator along with voting blue in a POTUS only the second time since Eisenhower (Clinton 1996). And 2 years ago, we elected a D Governor Hobbs over Kari Lake.

If anything, Arizona has turned purple the last four years. And for those of us who actually live in border states, the border isn't a giant issue. The two larger population Arizona Countries along the border, Pima and Santa Cruz, are the blueist in the state!

Trump may win AZ. But 538 currently has it a slight lean to Harris, and she's gaining momentum. Especially among younger voters.

 

If Biden won the popular vote by 7+ million with no excitement whatsoever about him personally, I think she'll beat that margin by 50%,

The electoral map is far more problematic for her.

 

What is it exactly that is exciting about Kamala Harris?

 

She's not a declining, unrelatable, 80 year old like Biden and Trump, for starters.

 

Well for one thing, she doesn’t spend her entire day whining about the past and being an unwitting victim to everyone and everything like her opponent does, or spend whatever little time there is left after those rancid, tiresome, childish rants shit talking our country every chance she gets.

Beyond that I’ll let you figure it out for yourself. Trump could take a dump on your dinner table and you’d call it caviar so it’s really a pointless discussion, and your question largely rhetorical.

 

Pretty good day on Nate Silver's site, with the new "blue wall" polls averaged in, she's up almost 2% in the averages in Pennsylvania, and looking pretty comfortable in Wisconsin and Michigan.

Up almost 3% in the national average polls, which is a comfortable margin since the democrat +2% is generally consider a strong breaking point in how the Electoral College will fall.

Impressive, too, that's she's gained 10-11% in Georgia and Arizona on the past month.

 

One more observation, Trump was only up about 3% on Biden nationally in the weeks after the debate when the democrats pressured him into quitting ... about the same margin Trump is down now.

 

It would be absolutely nutso for the Harris team and her supporters to get overconfident about the presidential race. In addition, it appears relatively certain that some Republican election officials in some of the key states appear poised to do everything in their power to get Trump elected regardless of the actual outcome of the election.

 

Prop 139 will officially be on the ballot in Arizona. It's a Constitutional Amendment that would make abortion legal up to fetal viability. Could help bring more women and younger voters out to vote, which helps Harris.

 

Sure, I understand she’s not Donald Trump. What is it specifically about Kamala Harris that excites you? I’ll give you another shot at this.