Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Everyone should keep in mind that it’s a long time until the election - two weeks movement here can easily be eroded over that time.

 

Not a poll but a strategy update with spending.

Trump’s strategy to win has narrowed. He is outgunned so he is pulling back all swing state spending and has cast his outcome on one state only. Pennsylvania. With an eye to protect North Carolina and Georgia. That would be exactly 270. There is no other path for him to win based on polls and funding levels. He is being outspent in all other states by tens of millions of dollars and it isnt close.

• He is $100M underfunded against the Democrats which grows by the day
• He is spending so much defending GA that its draining any offense he has
• He started spending in NC as he watches his lead shrink
• He is being outspent by far in all swing states except PA
• He will leave all other lean Pub states to fend for themselves
• Republicans only have more advertising booked than Democrats during the convention weeks when Democrats are geared to enjoy free publicity all week.

 

If he's a billionaire he could easily self fund his campaign, right? That's what Bloomberg was planning to do

 

It's crazy how important Pennsylvania is going to be. Makes me second guess the Walz pick from a strategic standpoint, although I think he has wider appeal across the country and less baggage. Harris's lead in Penn is still growing in the election models, but it's tight and within margins of error.

 

If PA loves Shapiro so much, his campaigning for Harris should pay off.

 

My understanding is that Shapiro wanted a larger role than a VP traditionally has and is viewed (including by himself) as more of a top of the ticket candidate.

 

You were so quick with this post. I expected @okeechobee to beat you to it

 

If anything, it shows how much Trump has fallen, he went from a decent probability of sweeping every swing state, to an all out effort to hold on to GA, NC, and Pennsylvania for a 2 point win.

 

Minor clarification-technically he’s not defending Georgia although he’s been ahead in the polls. Electorally he’s trying to flip it.

 

This is paywalled but a very interesting development as the FT is hardly a liberal rag

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Trump ahead in Penn by 1.5%. Trafalgar @Trafaigar_Group right at the top for polling accuracy along with @Peoples_Pundit 's Big Data Poll. . Trafalgar claims to have been the most accurate poll in 2016 '18 '20 and '21. Robert Barnes says Rich Baris was the most accurate from 2014-2024 I expect the undecided voters to break strongly for Trump
Shapiro will no doubt try to help the Dems cheat like they did in 2020 so you have to factor in fraud

 

Paywall remover: RemovePaywall | Free online paywall remover

More Americans trust Kamala Harris to handle the US economy than Donald Trump, according to a new poll that marks a sharp change in voter sentiment following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the White House race.

The survey, conducted for the Financial Times and the University of Michigan Ross School of Business, is the first monthly poll to show the Democratic presidential candidate leading Trump on the economy since it began tracking voter sentiment on the issue nearly a year ago.

Although 41 per cent of Americans still trust the former president more on economic issues — unchanged from the two previous monthly polls — the survey found 42 per cent of voters believe Harris would be better at handling the economy. That is a 7 percentage point increase compared to Biden’s numbers last month.

“The fact that voters were more positive on Harris than on Biden . . . says as much about how badly Biden was doing as it does about how well Harris is doing,” said Erik Gordon, a professor at the university.

 

Trafalgar poles are ranked #273 by 538 with a half star rating. They rank their polesters based on how close their poles were to actual results, if they show bias, and how transparent their methods are. 538s ranking is based on 134 Trafalgar poles. Trafalgar also has a transparency score of 1 out of 10 meaning they hide their methods, raw data, cross tabs, etc

 

Trump ahead by 1.2% in AZ
https://youtube.com/shorts/PhrWJZO5LaE?si=ggFoeeg4coGLgh_O

 

Trump ahead by 3.4% in NEV

 

Newsweek has a compilation of some of the more recent polls. It includes the polls from Trafalgar where Trump is winning swing states. But as mentioned, 538 gives Trafalgar an accuracy score of .7 out of 3, and in what 538 considers more accurate polls, Harris is beating Trump in these same states.

Right now, Harris still has the momentum. She also has the convention, but traditionally gives a candidate a bump in the polls. It's why betting sites now have Harris as the slight favorite.

 

Trump has always rallied hard down the stretch. Biden led him by +7.5 nationally on this date in 2020, almost lost to Trump. Hillary led him by +6.3 nationally on this date, lost to Trump. Harris has more exposure than both Biden and Hillary as she doesn't have the resume of either and is enveloped in a far left progressive aura, not aided by her radical pick for VP. I think Harris will ultimately lose a lot of independents who will hold their nose and vote for Trump. She is simply too radical.

 

So Biden beat Trump, but you still support Trump even though he runs around the country telling lies about having that election stolen from him?

Man, that is sad.

 

Some wonderful "Blue Wall" polling results today by a polling company run by the former RNC polling director.

 

Trafalgar is an outlier and their poll isn't the most recent: