Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Don't forget that most of the country doesn't like him

 

I glance at the betting odds on two legitimate wagering sites that allow US bettors to place political bets. One has moved to dead even odds, the other now has Harris ahead, with Trump at +100 and Harris at -110.

(For non-gamblers, that means risk 110 to win 100 on Harris - clearly a less desirable wager than the 1:1 odds they have for Trump of risking 100 to win 100.)

 

Real Clear Politics averages the betting odds from multiple sources and has flipped them to Harris.

 

This video is from 5 days ago. Barnes and Baris. Backs up what I said if you think they know what they're talking about

https://www.youtube.com/live/bHdcKfUvcUA?si=-Hfen6XC6Tru8EoW

 

Harris Leads Trump in Three Key States, Times/Siena Polls Find

 

by 4 points in each. Wow!

 

I would also add that out of over 200 pollsters, 538 rates the NY Times/Siena as the most accurate.

 

Kennedy clearly pulling more R than D votes at this point. I look for Trump to do everything behind the scenes to get him to drop out. Probably should’ve offered him a VP slot rather than catering to his base with a one trick pony that wasn’t going to move the needle to begin with.

 

Yeah, it would be comical to pull the original RFK thread where all the MaGA folks were saying how decimating RFK would be to the Democrats and everyone telling them they were wrong. Shocking

 

Leaves a lot of undecided too.

 

Nate silver flipped AZ to Harris today, and she continues to grow her lead in Mich, Penn, and Wisconsin…

Penn is still close, and would be the tipping point state for Trump, even if she holds on AZ and Nev….

Georgia is now less than 1%

 

I am no longer in fear of trump winning. I am now cautiously optimistic that Harris is going to win big. It’s still possible that republican legislatures ignore the votes but doubt that happens. I think the odds are 50 50 that Trump drops out now trying to cut a deal to stay out of prison.

 

Personally I don’t see Harris pulling ahead to the point trump would concede. I think it will remain reasonably close

 

You might be right I keep discounting the mark Twain quote. It’s easier to con people then it is to convince people they have been conned.

 

If you listened to 15-20 minutes 9f the video you would have realized how cĺueless your position is. I'd like to make you smarter but that's the last thing you want.

 

Dactile, the election model I linked in post #118, showed a nice Jump for Harris today. She's gone from a 42% chance of winning to a 53% chance in two weeks, in their model.

 

Yeah these days the pro road kill / anti vax voters are mostly MAGA

 

I know that being made dmsrt is the absolute last thing I could ever want.