War in Ukraine

Interesting seeing drone v drone footage. Ukraine is taking out large expensive reconnaissance drones with small short range FPV drones. I’m sure Russia does the same but this is much easier as the defender.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/FDDfs4lKZk

 

As others have said, we don't know what Ukraine's end game is on the incursion into Russia. I suppose they would seek to inflict as much damage as they can before Russian forces are marshalled to counter them in a serious way. I would guess they are also using this a chance to insert some special ops types behind enemy lines for future action.
The longer the incursion drags on the worse it looks for Putin et al as this has to be a major embarrassment. As Russian pulls resources from other areas to counter the incursion, maybe the Ukrainians would seek to take advantage of that by launching other counter offensives. We shall see.

 

Very few citizens will be concerned about Ukraine attacking their town and possibly ending their lives, but most Russians will get the message that the war is not going well for Putin and their economy may soon be at risk of collapsing . . . again. I don't think Afghan rebels ever invaded mother Russia. But keeping them out didn't stop the Russian economy from collapsing. Russians know that international sanctions have pushed Russia to the brink of economic collapse, with inflation approaching 8%. At some point, poor people can't afford food anymore. And that's how the Bolshevik Revolution started in 1917.

 

Ukraine strikes a military airfield 217 miles from the border, blowing up ammunition (guided bombs) and fuel storage sites. The airfield has Su-34, Su-35, and MiG-31 jets.

Russia struggles to repel Ukraine's deep Kursk incursion

 

Ukraine's invasion of Russia is so successful that they are now fighting 20 miles inside of Kursk. The area is secure enough that they are bringing in helicopters. Georgian Legion forces are fighting side-by-side with Ukraine against Russia in Kursk.

Ukraine now controls territory within 18 miles of the Kursk nuclear power plant. I could see Ukraine targeting the electrical substations around the power plant and shutting off electricity to the region.

Ukrainian Forces Make Major Gains Inside Russia On Day Three Of Kursk Invasion (Updated)

 

An assessment of Ukraine’s incursion by a retired Australian general now at Center for Strategic and International Studies (think tank I assume).

The Battle of Kursk 2024 | Russia Matters

It is very likely that Ukraine will have wargamed Russian responses and will have already allocated strike elements to hit Russian units moving towards Kharkiv (if possible). This is likely to be a multi-phase Ukrainian operation, and planning for likely anticipated Russian moves over the coming days and weeks will have been central to Ukraine’s overall planning for this operation.

Tactical challenges. A first order tactical challenge will be sustaining momentum. Ukraine will want to keep moving forward until it has achieved its objectives. At the same time, it will want to keep the Russians off balance, and ensure that the Russian army is always a couple of steps behind in responding the Ukrainian actions.

At the same time, Ukraine will want to ensure it can keep the breach open for the advance and for any withdrawal. These kinds of penetrations into enemy territory create opportunities, but they also create vulnerabilities. I have written previously about the challenge of creating salients in enemy territory here. One key vulnerability is the flanks of the advancing Ukrainians. As I wrote in this piece, an important tactical task will be the allocation of security forces to hold open the corridor into Russia that Ukraine has now created. The further Ukraine penetrates, the larger the quantity of forces will be needed for this mission.

 

{whispers} Ever notice that our Russian troll is silent when his side is being humiliated?

 

I suspect that Russia's military will be too clumsy to close off the salient in an effective way. They will present large numbers of troops, easily spotted, who will be decimated by artillery fire, missiles and drones. Russia would have to outnumber Ukraine's troops by 4:1 to have a significant enough advantage to wipe out the Ukraine brigades. Russia will lose several times as many troops as Ukraine does as a result of this incursion. Russia just doesn't do things in a coordinated or even an organized fashion.

 

Hope so. In any regard I suspect the HGWIC there is soon to have an unfortunate accident involving a window. Russian form of RIF (reduction in force).

 

No. How would we?

But, seriously, we don’t know enough yet to assume Russia is being humiliating or is even losing the battle. That’s what I want to be true as well, but we should let it play out before getting too exciting.

 

I think the fact that Ukraine is still standing and fighting on Russian territory after four days has to be humiliating for Putin.

 

Ukraine launched a massive drone attack against Lipetsk City, terrorizing the population. They knocked out a power supply station, ambushed a convoy, and their attack on the airfield apparently destroyed 700 guided bombs.

Ukraine brings war to Russia in ‘massive’ drone strike on military, government targets

 

Quite agree. And if they can break a couple of Russian counterattacks, withdraw in good order back to Ukraine with a bag of prisoners, having left behind lots of damage that’s hard for Russia to hide, then I’ll be sufficiently elated.

 

that would make a big boom
Russian Military Air Base on Fire After Drone Attacks: Video (msn.com)
The large-scale drone attack disrupted power supplies and left nine people wounded, according to regional governor Igor Artamonov. More than 700 guided bombs were destroyed in the strike, the Ukrainian National News agency reported. Glide bombs are a type of precision-guided munition that combines a conventional bomb and a cruise missile.

 

No it's all part of Putins plan according to Duggar. Lol

 

Well Uftaipan, I think we may assume it's not a little raid anymore!

They just keep expanding the boundaries.

Heck they may get in Himars range of that ski Nuke plant.

Pretty impressive, glad Ukraine has something to cheer about!

On to the Kremlin!

Or perhaps Putin takes a balcony dive from the 20th floor!!

 

Whether they withdraw from Russia now or later, this is a massive embarrassment for putin and a painful week for all the putin pumpers here and pro russian members of the GOP. Moscow marge drowning herself is shitty vodka?

 

Everything I am seeing in the last 24 hours suggests Russia has formed a full perimeter line of defense around the entire incursion and have stopped the expansion by the UAF. One has to think with the potential PR disaster this could be, Russia are likely going to send in the big guns to push it back to the Ukrainian border ASAP. And also, a report in the last 24 hours that the Sumy PM has ordered evacuation of several villages along the border adjacent to the Kursk incursion zone. This tells me they are preparing for Russia to push the Ukrainians back and keep going.

 

I think this attack was an act of desperation to distract from what's going on in the southeastern front. If say Russia pushes Ukrainian forces back to the border in two weeks time, nobody will care about this incursion by that point. I see this as Ukraine wasting Western resources and troops for a PR stunt that they will have nothing to show for in a couple of weeks. It is not unusual for such acts of desperation when the beginning of the end is nigh. The logical question continues to be, if there are no viable scenarios where Ukraine expands their holdings in the Kursk region significantly, why didn't they execute some brilliant phantom counteroffensive on their own turf? After all, is that not the objective of the war? To regain lost territory taken by the Russians?

 

Hopefully, they don't attack the nuclear plant, but just take it off-line by destroying the adjacent electrical substations. Having potentially two Chernobyls (Russia would respond by blowing up one or more Ukrainian nuclear power plants) in their back yard would probably not improve Europe's support for the war. Also, substation equipment is very expensive and can take a while to manufacture.