Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

It really just comes down to undecided independent voters in swing states at this point. It’s a binary choice. I like her chances more each day.

 

I fully expect RFK to drop out at some point here and that will throw some of this into more upheavel.

 

Her lead (if you want to call it that given the electoral college tends to favor Trump) is fragile, because she trails Trump by double digits on the economy and immigration, which are inevitably the two biggest issues. Trump has those aces up his sleeve and as any political historian knows, it’s very difficult to maintain a lead when a vast majority of the country thinks the other person will perform better on the issues that matter to them.

 

Yes because nothing unprecedented has happened with Trump with regards to political history.

“It’s the economy, stupid” doesn't hit the same when you’re running against the oldest nominee in American history who happens to be a convicted felon rapist who tried to overturn an election he lost.

 

Great visual and thanks for posting it. This shows us why we shouldn’t conclude anything with the current polls. Kamala was trailing Trump by double digits just a couple of months ago. What of substance has changed since then? Nothing. I think she peaks in August and it’s back downhill from there. Remember even just a few months ago, many Democrats were openly talking about replacing her on the ticket.

 

Double digits? The max spread on that chart is 44% to 48% ... Had no idea 4% was double digits but maybe you are using @AgingGator math... Lol.

 

Kamala Harris suffers double poll blow against Donald Trump

 

People make their decision on which candidate to support about a year in advance. Polls in August of an election 0year are notoriously misleading. Clinton.kad a 30 point lead after 5h3 DNC. McGovern and Mondale had leads over Nixon and Reagan, who ended up wih 60%+ and 58%+ respectively.

The August errors in the polls come because mos5 pollsters don't or can't filter out r3sponse bias . Example; After the DNC Democrats are more likely to want to be polled than Pubs and they get oversampled.
Historically for the incumbent party to win voters want to feel the economy is doing okay, no chaos a5 home (high crime out of control border), no cha9s abroad (war, likelihood of war). All 3 of these conditions must be met or the incumbent party probably loses. All 3 conditions look bad for Kamala. War abroad, poverty at home, out of control illegal immigration. In the last century, only 1932 and 2008 were worse for the party in power.

 

seriously I know you’re a bot so shame on me for asking questions but couldn’t your programmer have left out the misspellings? Was that to make you seem like a real Trump supporter? Not buying it.

 

Uh... the economy is fine.

 

not completely. For example the misery index is up

Americans Are Poorer: The United States Misery Index Rises Again – OpEd – Eurasia Review

Having said that it’s far from the hellscape conservatives paint it out to be - especially those who are well to do.

Nevertheless, I think Trump’s shortcomings more than offset any economic plight.

 

Nate Sliver flipped Nevada to Harris today, but Nevada doesn't really provide a cushion by itself since it's only 6 votes. Others are close to flipping in his model.

 

As long as polls show it a virtual tie or even Harris +1 nationally, Trump wins easily.

 

Good thing its about 2.5%, then ... (almost reaching a "double digit" 4% lead)...

 

Arizona's really close, now, too ... 0.3% ... better get those Cyber Ninjas on the speed dial.

 

I'll see what I can do for you. Virtually every point I made I.picked up from listening to podcast featuring political bettor Robert Barnes. He does a podcast with "Viva Frei" Sunday nights. a podcast with pollster Rich Baris @Peoples_Pundit Monday afternoon, and 1 or more solo "Bourbon with Barnes" during the week. The latter is usually behind a pay wall I believe but not always. Barnes is putting 25,% of his entire bankroll on Trump.to.win.the electoral vote. He's putting about 2%.of his money on Trump to win.by 100+ electoral votes (at long odds). He thinks Trump"s odds of winning are 80-85%. When you bet you're dealing in probabilities, nothing is guaranteed. Might take a day to find what you want

 

Trump would thrive in an insane asylum, and I would fully support him for chief mucketymuck of the asylum. It continues to amaze me that half the country supports a guy for president who obviously is insane.

 

Do you wake up and think "what's the most inane, outlandish, foolhardy, and ridiculous thing I can get away with claiming on the interwebs today?"