https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2024/us-sanction-countries-work/ Good long read on the scale of US Sanctions. Did you know that 1/3rd of the countries in the world are under some kind of sanction by the US government? Over 15,000 entities? This includes roughly 60% of the developing world. Along with this has sprung up its own bureaucracy, and the financial impact has certainly contributed to the influx of refugees and migrants, from places like Venezuela in particular. It has also moved various states into the orbit of Russia and China, as access to the US economy becomes difficult or impossible.
sanctions aren’t very effective at causing regime change. Arguably the opposite. Sanctions are effective at choking out the countries economically and militarily, but there are side effects like immigration.
One of the more interesting things talked about in the piece is how compliance has placed a burden on our own own economy as our financial institutions try to navigate compliance and overwhelm the oversight system with various requests and issues.
The auditors ask me a series of questions every quarter as to whether i know of any business we are doing with entities from a short list of countries. It isnt 15,000 though... I'll tell them they are not thorough.
This is why I supported Obama ending the sanctions on Cuba. Generally they don’t work toward regime change, certainly over the very long term. Not even Castro’s death brought about regime change. I do support the sanctions on Russia though. Can’t do “business as usual” with a country that invades its neighbors (and arguably if sanctions were ever to work, it’s right at the start or when it causes that immediate shock to the system, but “regime change” is more of a longshot outcome and sanctions likely just a small component compared to bigger frustrations with a corrupt govt).
