That’s why the Walz hire was such a slam dunk. Former high school teacher and football coach with no baggage on the war in Gaza. He is the perfect choice to bring in lots and lots of young voters and he has legislation he’s passed on top of it that that has been very impactful for his constituents.
I was thinking along the same lines. A lot can change between now and November but right now it feels like the reverse of 2016. There's big, enthusiastic crowds for Kamala while it feels like Trump is acting as if the presidency is his right. Feels closer to Hillary in 2016 - like he's just kind of going through the motions rather than trying to go out an earn it.
And here's a new poll as penance for quasi-sidetracking the purpose of the thread: AARP poll has Trump up 2 in Georgia.
Agree 100%. Hillary lost because she didn't bring enough supporters to the polls. There were also a number of "double haters" that didn't want to vote for either Clinton or Trump, and voted third party. Thin margins in several swing states gave Trump the EC in 2016, especially in Midwest states, where Hillary campaigned looked more like a victory tour instead of a get out and vote campaign. 2020 was different. The ABT (anyone but Trump) vote was huge, and pushed Biden to victory. One would think this vote would remain the same in 2024, but Biden's age and many people's goldfish memory regarding Trump gave Trump the momentum. There were also a lot of double haters out there who if the election was Trump vs. Biden would either be voting third party, or stay at home and not vote at all. This all changed when Harris entered the race. We see much more enthusiasm and momentum for Harris. Many of the double haters have pledged their vote to Harris, and more minority and youth voters are planning to vote as compared to six weeks ago. It's pushing Harris ahead in the polls. The undecided numbers have dropped significantly since Harris entered, but still a lot out there. The above GA poll has 10% not voting for Trump or Harris. Numbers that can easily sway the election either way. Right now, Harris has all the momentum, and should get a convention bounce. Trump, right now, has more mean Tweets, and is now the old, unhinged guy.
Presidential Campaign Reset: Arizona, Georgia and Nevada Move From Lean Republican to Toss Up | Cook Political Report Non partisan political report moves Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada to "toss up" from favoring Trump.
Even with that Rasmussen Trump +5 outlier poll averaged in, Nate Silver has Harris expanding her national lead by 0.2% to 2.1% today. Also has Nevada and Arizona moving to within 0.4% and 0.6% of flipping blue.
Is that the same Rasmussen that predicted Romney would defeat Obama in 2012 or that saw a red wave coming in 2022? Two articles citing Rasmussen and other pro-Republican polls Midterm Polls Look Better for Republicans Than We’ve Been Led to Believe | National Review A Red Wave is Coming. The Only Question is How High It Will Be
It’s over. Trump isn’t recovering from this wave of momentum that has completely taken over on the left.
Trump has peaked. You really think he’s going to gain any traction back when every day he and his VP are out there completely melting down and making an ass of themselves? Yes, everyone is in a honeymoon phase with Harris and Walz right now, but I’d venture to guess a record number of young voters are going to show up this year, and just wait until someone like Taylor Swift officially puts it out there. The more and more people see just how crazy Trump and Vance are, and see how unhinged Project 2025 is, the further they will continue to fall behind.
I probably have too much faith in people, but I have a hard time seeing the majority of Americans looking at a Trump/Vance ticket and going “that’s who I want running the county.” He’s a miserably unpopular president who has never won a popular vote who picked a horrible unfit and out of touch VP who is rating at historic lows. Yes, the electoral college is a thing that makes winning the presidency possible despite losing the popular vote (see 2016), but this isn’t 8 years ago when he was still unknown politically. We all know who he is and what he stands for now, and the majority Americans hate it.
Harris will win the popular vote by 10-12 million votes but the electoral college will be much closer. I’ll feel better after seeing a couple of policy speeches instead of pep rallies as well as interaction with the press where her answers don’t devolve into the word salads she’s quite capable of serving.
We shall see. If he loses the popular vote by that much, though, I don’t even see him having a realistic shot at winning the electoral college.
Got to agree with that. The difference in 2020 was 7 million, so 10 million and still losing seems unlikely. I mean, I know it's technically possible, but usually that kind of win would be indicative how the swing voters and undecideds broke. 538 used to say the Democrat winning by 2% or more would very likely be an electoral college win, although there are paths to win or lose on both sides of 2%.
Kamala hasn’t done interviews or debates yet. A lot can happen. Unfairly, no matter how crazy Trump is or how poorly he does, it is baked in. A slip up by Kamala could cause more blow back.
