I used to post a thread like this years ago at the beginning of every season. I only did it for a few seasons, and I’m not sure why I stopped, but I thought about it this season and wanted to do it again. I would basically break down the schedule into “chunks” based on how I perceived the season’s matchups. It’s always interesting that how the season progresses changes these preseason perceptions as it unfolds. I’m using a 7-5 record as the definition of a “successful” season. THE FORGONE CONCLUSION GAMES Samford, Texas, Georgia Just about anyone in their right mind will say that we go 1-2 for this batch of games. Anything different would be either really bad, or really good. I would think we have a better shot at going 2-1 rather than 0-3, but don’t think there’s much of a chance of either. Beating Samford, while losing to UT and UGA really won’t make any waves one way or the other. Prediction: 1-2 THE MUST WIN GAMES Texas A&M, Miss St., Kentucky Face it, these are the teams we have to beat in order to at least become a “good” team again. We have to be able to win on the road (Miss. St.) and that’s our best chance to do it. We have to make Kentucky our bitch again. TAMU is a winnable home game. We HAVE to be at least 2-1 in these 3 games in order to have a “successful” season. 2-1 in these three games mean we’ll need to pick up a big win somewhere else. 3-0 here would be optimal and as everything stands now, looks quite possible. Prediction: 3-0 THE BIG BOY GAMES Tennessee, LSU, Ole Miss These are among our tougher games of the season. We could go 0-3 here but would need a big win elsewhere in order to have a successful season. If we lose one of the “Must Win” games, then we would HAVE to win one of these three to have a shot of a successful season. 2 wins out of this group and we are in GREAT shape! Prediction: 1-2 THE STATE GAMES Miami, UCF, FSU This is IMO the most important selection of games. All three games are in state so it will heavily impact recruiting. Also, we open with Miami, close with FSU and have UCF right in the middle. These 3 games will define our season in my opinion. 0-3 would be disastrous. I don’t even want to go there. 1-2 would be terrible as well. I can’t imagine any way this season could be considered a “success” with only 1 win here (presumably UCF). 2-1 would have the makings of a decent to great season, a lot of course depends on the other games, but I don’t think we have much of a shot at 7 wins without going 2-1 in these games. 3-0 would be glorious!!! I can’t imagine any scenario where we go 3-0 in these games and our season isn’t considered MORE than “successful” (even if we end up 7-5). Prediction: 2-1 Season prediction: 7-5 This is just the way I see it all laid out. I would imagine a lot of you guys see it the same way but would love to see if anyone looks at it a little bit differently than this. Only 23 more days until we start finding out!
Well done Smooty and considering you won the Smooty "pick ems" last year kinda tough to challenge you. I'm going full optimist and like the Gators to pull a big surprise against someone and go 8 - 4! If you pressed me I'm thinking Ole Miss or perhaps whippin UT in Knoxvegas.
That’s pretty much the way I see it also. But it’s very possible to win two out of three of the big boy games against Tennessee and LSU and lose to Kentucky and Texas A&M. There’s probably not much difference in those games as people think there is.
beating UT in Knoxville has never been that big of a deal and I can certainly see it happening yet again this year. The only reason I don’t predict eight or nine wins is because even the ones he picked as must wins are not guaranteed wins. Every game other than a couple Are going to be hard to win every week. I think we have as much chance of losing to Kentucky as we do of beating Tennessee. It’s just a tossup every week.
Would agree, but Tennessee is on the road.. UK and A&M are home games. We have fared MUCH better at home. If the home/away were switched, I would say you're spot on. We have to beat UK at home this year... we HAVE to beat UK this year!!! Damnit!
The difference between going 6-6, vs 7-5 is razor thin. I put our season chances of either outcome at about 80%. Not great, but given the schedule entirely acceptable, particularly if we then go on to win a decent bowl. But I think our chances of doing better are less than 10%. Still possible, but we will need plenty of favorable bounces.
I totally understand your train of thought but if we can win seven games, we can definitely win eight also because the teams were playing are kind of all the same.
I agree with most of what you posted here Smooty. The only difference in the way I view the outcome is I think we run the table in state. We should have beat the clowns last year with their borrowed roster and they’ve lost a LOT of returning talent. UCF to me is a foregone conclusion. Miami to me is the biggest wildcard of the three. They’ve out recruited the clowns for sure, but their coaching hasn’t shown any signs of improvement in a weak ACC. If our defense returns to the form we saw in the first half of last season or better, we win this by two touchdowns. 8-4 is my prediction. Just my thoughts though!
Spot on assessment. Dont agree with the record prediction. Until I see what fsu, aTm and Lsu bring I'm not convinced they are as good as their reputations. I could be dead wrong and they may all hit on their reloads but 2 out of the 3 relied on a gamechanging QB and the third has a new coach. We on the other hand have Multiple players getting a 2nd year in the same system. Losing any would be indicative of some coaching concerns to me. I have bought the preseason lies and have gone from cautiously optimistic to firmly believing we aren't the trainwreck we were the past two seasons and should be able to win games against solid teams without gimmicks or miracle comebacks. Either we make a significant leap under Robert's or we are cooked. Don't see a field of tweeners lead by inexperienced or burned out coaches anymore. No more db coaches standing alone with arms crossed. A veteran and capable QB even keel and steady. Speed at receiver. A bevy of runningbacks. No reported headcases with me first attitudes reported. Legitimate transfers with filling in gaps. If Napier is going to reach his potential then results should start showing this year. Call me crazy. That's fine. My expectation is 3 losses. More than that is disappointing but not a deal breaker. 5 losses to me is almost the same as the first 2 years for me. It just shouldn't happen with capable coaching chops in my opinion.
Agreed. We have 4 road games: Miss St., Tennessee, FSU and Texas. We better beat Miss St. We'll probably lose to Texas. If we can beat either FSU or Tennessee, it would bode well. A 2-2 road record would be a step in the right direction given our schedule strength and recent history on the road. Edit: Changed "UT" to "Texas" for clarity.
Losing to both Texass and uga is not a "foregone conclusion" in my mind. Texass has lost their RB1 for the season and we just might be peaking at Week 8 for a stunning upset. I think we take 2 (the home games) from your Big 3, maybe sweep if slUT is less than advertised (like last year) . We get Ole Piss late and I hear that they are not deep and injuries may be weighing heavy on them by late November. Sweep the in state teams
I agree, wholeheartedly with what you’re saying, but predicting the record to me is really hard anywhere between six and nine wins because all these teams are capable of winning games and it can come down to just pure luck sometimes. I would love to have eight or nine wins and I think that’s definitely possible, because if you can win seven, you can win nine those teams are not unbeatable. Texas and Georgia are the only ones that are going to completely talent us on the field. I don’t know how good we’re gonna be and I don’t know how good the entire middle of our schedule minus the crappy teams and the great teams are going to be either .
It’s a crapshoot for sure. Late in the season any team could be missing their best six players. Texas and Georgia can probably still compete with her best. Six players missing,us not so much.
Certainly. Luck or bad luck happens. Who could predict the Swindle in the Swamp? Or the dallas baker slap robbery in Tennessee. Or Nebraska winning on an illegal kick pass against mizzou back in the day that sprung them into a title game? Or the tropical force winds kicking up at Auburn to take out Grossman and the Gators passing game. Injuries happen too. I'm saying outside of the random injury or luck all this talk of 7 or 8 being the ceiling is contradictory to the belief we are improved this year. I get the disbelief because people like to base predictions on results. But that's also why preseason polls are garbage. They generally reward teams based on their last season regardless of the nuances in their lineup changes. That's a two way street. Bad teams get better without "proving it' preseason. There's almost always some blind faith or guesswork involved unless it's a stacked team coming back like 96 florida or sickening to say it but the mutts year in year out now.
I'm at 8-4 with 9-3 as an outside possibility. After a look at the oppo, I'm not nearly as intimidated as I was at first. Of the two best teams, only one looks to be all but invincible - the other is still somewhat of a "want to be" at this juncture. In short, we face one proven "super team" plus one "near super" team and several others that are looking for answers just like we are. FTR, I'll put Tennessee and Ole Miss in the big boy category when they actually win a trophy or two. I agree 100% with your take about the current status of the program and the overall positive outlook.
