Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Nate Silver is now favoring Harris to win it all ... and he factors in the built in advantage that republicans have in the EC. Silver had been giving Trump a 75% win probability with nearly 300 EC votes. That is some serious momentum on her side at the moment.

 

Two new polls yesterday and today… Harris +4 on Morning Consult, Harris +3 on YouGov

 

Harris has seen a huge jump in polls in two weeks. People are talking about a honeymoon, but honestly I'm not sure as some states begin voting next month

 

I have to hope that people are coming to their senses. The people backing trump are against everything I love about our country.

 

Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Nate Silver's election forecast (thehill.com)

The race between Harris and Trump is still labeled as a “toss-up” in the most recent update to the forecast, posted Sunday, with the model predicting Harris has a 51 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.

Silver said on social media the race for the Electoral College likely will be a close one.

“One heuristic way to look at this is that if Harris winds up somewhere in between Clinton 2016 and Biden 2020, it makes for an extremely close outcome in the Electoral College. And that’s the model’s best guess as to the outcome,” Silver wrote on the social platform X about the latest election forecast.

 

538 put their national polling average back online, but not their full model yet. Has Harris +1.9% and rising.

Look at these fantastic numbers going back 6 days, not a red one to be found.

 

so unfair, very unfair, cheating even. lots of good people, best people, say so....

 

Donald Trump's Health Is of Increasing Concern to Voters (msn.com)

fewer voters believe Donald Trump is in good health, and more think the 78-year-old Republican is too old to run for office now that President Joe Biden is no longer in the 2024 race, according to a new poll.

A Morning Consult survey of around 2,200 registered voters compared results from when Biden was still in the race to the latest polling when Vice President Kamala Harris was the presumptive 2024 Democratic nominee.

The results show that now Trump is facing off against the 59-year-old Harris, fewer voters believe Trump is in "good health," falling 6 points from 58 percent to 52.

Since Biden dropped out of the race, more than half (51 percent) now say that Trump is too old—up from 44 percent—and the number of people believing the former president is mentally fit has fallen 5 points from 53 percent to 48.

 

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Widens Lead In Latest Surveys

 

Kamala Harris campaign's secret internal poll from last weekend (poll completed ~Aug 4) as leaked to Rich Baris @Peoples_Pundit

Kamala Harris 48
Donald Trump 47

 

Wow even the Bot’s fake non-existent poll has Harris up by 1?!? Damn!!!

 

but his quack of a doctor said he could live to 200+ and only weighs 230 pounds. At 78 he’s not even middle aged yet if his doctor is to be believed.

As the great Big Poppa Pump used to say “numbers don’t lie and they spell disaster for you!”

 

Dem candidate/harris moved out front first time in months. Trump was up to 69% and climbing against Biden.

But I anticipate we have more twists to come.









Election Betting Odds

 

No metric will be perfect, especially this far out, but I believe prediction markets are as good as you can get. It seems Harris’ momentum is real. We will see if it holds.

 

At least the Democracy has hope of being preserved from his Imperial Majesty.

I was pretty damn low after the Biden debate.

And yes, I'm breaking the glass with Chem and pressing the save democracy button!

 

Trump peaked after the assassination attempt. I think as the process goes along and people see just how unhinged him and Vance are along with their plan for America, that lead will only widen.

 

Trump holds 2-point lead over Harris with a big advantage on economy, CNBC survey shows

I think Harris' appeal will wane down the stretch because she still trails Trump big on the two leading issues: immigration and the economy. Perhaps some others can point it out, but I can't think of the last time somebody won the presidency trailing this much on the two leading issues going into an election.

 

Marquette has Harris +8 in its 5 way poll. Damn Girl!

 

Frank Luntz, Republican pollster, thinks Harris is ahead and has the momentum.



“Let me emphasize, I do believe…that Vice President President Harris is now the front runner in this race. I know that Trump people's minds will explode but Harris has got the intensity, she’s got momentum…

 

One factor that should really be worrying Trump and his supporters is the enthusiasm that Harris has been able to generate among minorities and younger voters and that will likely translate into turnout in November keeping in mind that a drop in turnout from 2012 to 2016 among those demographics was one of the reasons Clinton lost in 2016. The last Democrat who was able to generate similar enthusiasm was Obama in 2008. Although anecdotal one of the networks showed a long line of supporters waiting to enter the venue for one of Harris's rallies (don't recall whether it was Wisconsin or Michigan). Ironically the line was similar to the lines for Trump's MAGA rallies in both 2016 and 2020 when he outperformed the polls.
New polling suggests that Harris may be bringing younger voters home