Worst unemployment report in years

Haha ya I’m done. It’s crazy because it’s very simple.
End of the day, I believe we have more than enough data now to show we are heading to some kind of recession and likely in the next 6 months.

 

Which you also thought in 2022 and 2023.

 

That’s certainly a possibility but it’s far from a given. People have been predicting a recession for a couple of years. Maybe now is the time. But it is worth noting that the increase in unemployment pretty closely mirrors an increase in the prime age labor participation rate - so people are starting to look for a job, but haven’t found one yet, vs people are losing jobs.

 

Again my point is that republicans have been predicting doom and gloom since the day after trump left office pretty much. If you say a recession is coming every day to infinity eventually you will be right. Just don’t expect a lot of atta boys for that kind of prediction. If I say it’s going to rain every day some days I’m right, but I can’t just ignore the days I’m wrong. You all have been wrong. For a while. Maybe we see a recession sometime in the next year maybe but you get no credit for calling it when you’ve been wrong till now. Hell if you’d been shorting the market since you all started guessing you’d all be broke.

 

Go look at ADP report, JOLTS, QECW, and the recent increase in weekly claims.

There is not just one indicator here flashing something is off.

 

Yep, weekly jobless claims being at a one-year high corroborates the lackluster jobs number and subsequent UE rate increase. Bidenomics...

 

I started calling for some flashes in September 2023.

2022 was just the start of rising rates in June. Back then all I was saying was the feds waited too long to stop QE.

 

Hmmm...strange that you would be making predictions like this in 2022:

 

Haha thanks for pointing out exactly what I just said. Feds were going to screw it up.
I literally called out what would happen. Feds did over tighten for too long. Definitely one of those times I hate to be right.

Now go look at my September 2023 post when I actually started to point out reports and data to show hey something is wrong.

 

Lol. So now you are claiming that you were predicting a deep recession...two years later. And one year later. Okay. Sure.

 

Umm you can read what I said back in 2022 right? You went and found it. It’s right there for you to read. I never thought they could hit a soft landing. I said it in 2022 and I’ll continue to say that now.

This is not the first time the Feds screwed up. Just have to be willing to be a student of history.

 

You’re cooked you mean. Not just done.

 

Sure. When you said "Instead of a softer recession, they are going to overtighten us into a more harsh recession," what you really meant was that we would have robust economic and job market growth for two more years and then have a harsh recession due to monetary policy.

 

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Judge bars Matt Bevin from wife’s home amid divorce case and harassment allegation

 

You realize they still have yet to lower the federal rate? We threw an unprecedented amount of money into the system. Available money supply hit all time highs. Stop pretending like this was normal and something we have done in the past at the level we did it in.

To make matters worse, democrats jammed the inflation act down in Aug 2022.

Could I end up wrong, sure. I believe when all is said and done, my prediction that they over tightened and put us into a hard landing ends up true.

 

And in a time line of now until infinity, I am sure you will find the evidence some day. Then you can claim to have been right all along.

 

I predict there will be a recession in the future! I’m positive of it!

 

Election season is the best time for this recession.

 

it’s too late - barring a total collapse. Only 3 months till the vote and gdp was +2.8% in q2. Best case scenario for you is a downturn in q3 but it won’t be a recession yet by any definition. What you’re hoping for is a crash, basically. Right now the projections for q3 gdp are still positive and people had been predicting UE would go up. I mean, that’s not me saying that just go out and check projections from earlier this year from various sources.

 

What parameters define a soft and hard landing to you?