Worst unemployment report in years

Great post OP. Yeah, we need to go ALL the way back to the Trump administration to find reports as bad as this one. Of course Trumps reports were negative jobs for his WHOLE administration .... but hey ... your post is accurate all be it a self-own.

 

That’s like the old guy who on his deathbed shouted out in joy: “I did it! I made it through my entire life without ever having to use trigonometry.”

 

• How does the uptick in prime age labor participation relate to cost of living rate of increase, I wonder? Are folks otherwise not needing to work having to get jobs to make ends meet? BTW, I’m guessing that the continual increase 1950 to 2000 is women joining the labor force.

 

If you cared to review, you'll notice many of the recessions saw an increase and then a crash.

Because its a lagging metric and by the time NBER finally declares a recession, its well into it. Hell the Great Recession saw an increase in the middle of the recession before dropping again.
Go look at the dot com recession.



The 90s recession is the perfect example of an increasing GDP to a quick crash



In the 80s, we were rocking in the 4s! But in just 3 quarters we retracted into a recession:




The point is, don't have a false sense of security with GDP and possible recession.

 

I like how you played with scale so heavily to make those pictures, especially the first, to avoid showing how negative the second derivative of GDP was before the recession.

 

That's not what the graph shows...

 

Yes, it actually is. Highest prime age labor force participation rate was 83.1% in January 2020. Now, it is 84.0%. I guess you could be quibbling about 0.9% higher instead of 1% higher, but participation rates in prime ages are higher now than under Trump by (nearly) 1%.

 

You still think our economy is doing well? Well... you are wrong about that, like I said before...

 

My ability to analyze a graph isn't dictated by who the President is.

 

You clearly don’t understand how our economy, the gdp or recessions work…

First you realize these are quarterly numbers and by time it’s final, the quarter after it is ending. If you can’t figure out just how much of a lagging indicator this is, then we are done.

Second, you pick just 1 of the screen shots I didn’t show a longer time frame and ignore the others… it was to show you each recession is different.

 

Im sorry but you have proven your ability to read a graph lacks any real critical thinking orrr your full of it and your bias toward your preferred party is actually dictating how you are looking at the graph.

 

You clearly don't understand how math works. When I asked you about the second derivative, you have yet to even discuss the second derivative.

Lol, this is gibberish.

Yes, the other two graphs show the negative second derivative. You cut the one where it was even more obvious.

 

No, I actually applied critical thinking by asking about the second derivative. That required the ability to know what that is, why it is important as a predictor, and what the situation currently is. You just didn't recognize it because it went against your pre-determined narrative. Question, for how many years have you been predicting a recession is going to be soon?

 

We’re entering a recession, bottom line. 75% of bond market handicappers are pricing in a HALF point rate cut now by the Fed in September. Something that was unheard of until this past week. Market analysts don’t throw out predictions like that on a whim this close to the event. The only time the Fed will ever even consider a half point cut is if they see a massive shift in the economy and we are seeing it.

 

I don’t have a narrative. I have a business to run and people to keep employed.

Again, you fail to realize virtually every single recession we have had, our economy leading up to it has done something different and been in a different position.

We were roaring above 4% increase in the 80s and it came crashing down in less then a year.

By the way, I’m not claiming we are in a recession. I definitely think we are heading into one.

Unless unemployment drops down to 4.1% next month, Sahm rule will be triggered (currently it’s actually just shy). It has been practically perfect when indicating a recession.

 

It is funny that you are both arguing that every recession is different and that indictators are always true.

And you absolutely have a narrative: the recession is coming. You have been saying it since at least 2022 on here. Maybe it is, I actually don't have a narrative. But if you have the same narrative each yearz it doesn't add much to the discussion.

 

The unemployment rate will continue to rise, because the job creation isn’t there to sustain the current 4.3% rate. Even the previous months numbers were revised downward. Companies will be more cautious adding payroll with conditions looking dour. 4.3% unemployment is still near peak employment. The U.S. has never been able to sustain peak or near peak employment for this long. The only reason it has lasted this long is all the stimulus money from Covid. The economy must and will cycle as it always has.

 

What are you even talking about? Someone said this is the worst jobs month since Trump. You made a big deal about not including the pandemic months for Trump's jobs record. I then pointed out that Trump had 8 worse jobs months than this one prior to the pandemic. So it's still the worst jobs month since Trump when you exclude the pandemic.

 

republicans have been crying wolf about the economy for four years. They’ve been wrong for a long time about it but just watch when it finally happens (because the cycle is real) they’ll be like, “see knew it all along” lol. It’s gotten tiresome.

 

Oh you always have a narrative…and a huge libbie bias.
AND also apparently a massive blind spot.