She’s Michael Dukakis. Led Bush by 17 points at one time in summer 1988. Lost to Bush in a landslide. His issue was his radical left agenda. She’s not going to be able to hide from it. More radical than Bernie.
She's much more like Barack Obama than Michael Dukakis. Dukakis didn't do himself any favors with the photo of him in the tank (he looked like a nerd playing soldier), his response to a question from Bernard Shaw asking if Dukakis would support the death penalty if his wife Kitty was murdered (he essentially gave the academic reason why he would still oppose capital punishment) and most significantly the racist Willie Horton ad campaign. Horton was a convicted murderer who committed a violent crime while on work release. The Bush campaign portrayed the incident as the fault of Mike Dukakis and all of the ads included a photo of Horton as a scary Black guy. The reality is that the work release program was actually created by Dukakis's Republican predecessor and Horton who should have never been released under the program was allowed to participate as the result of screw-up by the Massachusetts Department of Corrections. Compared with both Trump and her predecessor Harris is young and dynamic in contrast to Biden and Trump who are old, cognitively diminished and in the case the latter unhinged and if Trump has the balls to debate her she will destroy him.
Anything is possible at this point. The right has claimed the last couple Democratic candidates were radical, so it’s also possible that this criticism has lost some of its sting.
The guy that started 30 threads about polling when Trump was up is telling us polling doesn't matter when he's losing ...
Harris +5 … apparently a Rasmussen associated company, which tends to favor Pubs… is it worse for Trump?
RMG Research is ranked 60th out of over 200 pollsters by 538 meaning that it's relatively accurate. That being said it's still only one poll and it's almost three months until the election. One thing is rather obvious in both the national polls and the swing state polls, as far as Trump is concerned the trend is not his friend.
As a Trump supporter, I'd be more worried today if Biden was still in the race. I see a woman who refuses to do interviews since she was gift-wrapped the nomination. I see a woman who has a grating personality and is polling worse with men than Hillary did. I see a California progressive who was rated to the left of Bernie Sanders in 2019 as the most liberal senator in the entire Senate. I see her smiling and wink winking at Hamas. I see a woman who has a very bad reputation regarding her treatment of staff. I see a woman who hasn't won a single primary. You could let Biden re-enter at this point and he'd still do better than she will. She's that awful.
Again, I don’t think we have much of a road map for the future here, so I am not even going to make a prediction. +5% or -5% both seem possible. I would say, if you are confident in your analysis, you can probably get some good odds from the prediction markets right now.
The free data that Nate Silver makes available has her expanding her lead in the national polling again today, to over 1% in his average, holding Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan by an expanding margin, and improving the margin in her favor in every competitive swing state he tracks, by 1 to 4%, over the last week. Also saw that betting odds flipped to her favor today. What a week. I wonder how far the convention bump will put Her ahead?
Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast I’m liking those state numbers. The tie in PA really pushes the narrative for Shapiro.
My thought is that there won’t be a convention bump no one will watch it but those who are already voting for her. A sane vp pick will give her a little bump.
There are at least four organizations doing statistic modeling this year. 538 - currently offline for Kamala reprogramming, free service The economist - currently offline for Kamala reprogramming, paid service with some free data. SilverBulletin - paid with some free date - online for Kamala Dactile - open source, online for Kamala, free There is also real clear politics, but they are not really modeling, they just average polls and raw data. Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast What is the probability Harris wins? Building a Statistical Model. Trump v Biden: The Economist’s presidential election prediction model FWIW, the two online are basically saying “toss up”, around 50% chance for each candidate. But Kamala is in fire, improving her odds by 5-8% over the last few days …. Will have to see how far her momentum carries her.
Some interesting nuggets from the CBS News / YouGov poll released today showing Harris +1 nationally. Clearly, Trump has an edge on the economy and a huge edge on immigration. Those are the two biggest issues: Boosts in Democratic excitement help Harris reset the race against Trump — CBS News poll
Real Clear Politics, which is a right leaning source, just flipped their 5 way poll average to Harris. That must pain them.
